Nothing like some home cookin' eh Kg? I was thinking about taking the over too, but laid off. Much like you I feel like I stretched myself too thin over the weekend. Going for volume rather than quality. If the over hits I might feel a little upset, but overall I think taking the moneyline and nothing else was the quality play. Good luck the rest of the week, it's time to rebound!

Yessir, starting the week off with a win. Our rebound week begins my man.

How you feel about the Penn State-Purdue game, was thinking of getting in on that action

easye688 said:

How you feel about the Penn State-Purdue game, was thinking of getting in on that action

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Gun to my head I'm taking Purdue and the 12 points. Penn State hasn't shown a whole lot to make me believe in them. I think last week was the first time they covered the spread all year and almost failed to do so in that game. If McQueary gets the offense going they could beat Purdue by double digits, but that's a big if at this point.

Just taking a quick glance I'd have to agree with Elrod. Penn State is 5-1 but 1-4-1 ATS. I think Penn State is the far better team but my book has it at -11.5 right now and I don't know that I would feel comfortable laying that many with such and anemic offense. I don't think Purdue scores more than 10, but can Penn State score more than 3 TDs?

Only thing giving me pause is that Penn State is averaging 162 YPG on the ground and Purdue is giving up 142.8 rushing YPG and 345 YPG overall to the likes of Middle Tennessee State, Rice, and SE Missouri State, Not exactly Big 10 caliber offensive powerhouses.

Give me a day or two and I'll take a deeper look into the numbers and see if I can get a better read on this one, as of now it looks like it could go either way and I don't feel all that confident in either side.

Rangers @ Tigers +113
No write up, I just feel like the Tigers are gonna get it done. Texas struggles at Comerica and the Tigers are rallying around one another in the face of adversity. The bats woke up last night, they get hotter tonight. Plus Jesus is a Tigers fan.

Brewers @ Cardinals -152
Carpenter threw an absolute gem his last time out. Pujols splits vs Gallardo:
27 AB, 12 Hits .444 Avg, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB. With the way Carpenter is pitching and the difference in the Brewer's offense at home vs. on the road Pujols might put up enough runs himself to win the game tonight.

Thanks a lot, keep me posted, we got a few days til game time, any other big ten action I should get in on

easye688 said:

Thanks a lot, keep me posted, we got a few days til game time, any other big ten action I should get in on

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Purdue already jumped to +12 from this morning, it gets over 13 and I'd probably jump on that if I was gonna play that game. As far as strictly Big 10, the only one that looks appealing to me is Northwestern +6.5 @ Iowa, I think it opened at +6 and if it hit 7 I'd be pretty confident on that one.

Wisconsin is laying 40 freaking points and while they very well may cover that's a whole lot of wood.

Michigan/MSU- if I had to pick I would take State at -1, but I'm a huge Michigan fan so I can't bring myself to do that. No play for me. Lots of Michigan money coming in and whether its from sharp bettors or Michigan alums I dunno, but it opened at UM +4 and its down to +1 so whoever it is is dumping a lot of money on Blue.

I tend to look at all the lines, not just one particular conference because I don't want to pigeonhole myself into choosing between 4 or 5 games a week. With the oddsmakers sharpening the lines as the season goes on I find it best to look at college football as a whole and try to find lines and matchups where you have an advantage. Just my opinion but if you're set on only playing Big 10 this week I would probably take Purdue at +13 and Northwestern +6.5 or better.

Also adding small half unit parlay:
Tigers +113 & over 9.5, Cardinals -152 & under 7.

Pays 13 to 1 if it hits, I'm almost absolutely sure it won't but what the hell?

kgdetroit said:

easye688 said:

Thanks a lot, keep me posted, we got a few days til game time, any other big ten action I should get in on

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Purdue already jumped to +12 from this morning, it gets over 13 and I'd probably jump on that if I was gonna play that game. As far as strictly Big 10, the only one that looks appealing to me is Northwestern +6.5 @ Iowa, I think it opened at +6 and if it hit 7 I'd be pretty confident on that one.

Wisconsin is laying 40 freaking points and while they very well may cover that's a whole lot of wood.

Michigan/MSU- if I had to pick I would take State at -1, but I'm a huge Michigan fan so I can't bring myself to do that. No play for me. Lots of Michigan money coming in and whether its from sharp bettors or Michigan alums I dunno, but it opened at UM +4 and its down to +1 so whoever it is is dumping a lot of money on Blue.

I tend to look at all the lines, not just one particular conference because I don't want to pigeonhole myself into choosing between 4 or 5 games a week. With the oddsmakers sharpening the lines as the season goes on I find it best to look at college football as a whole and try to find lines and matchups where you have an advantage. Just my opinion but if you're set on only playing Big 10 this week I would probably take Purdue at +13 and Northwestern +6.5 or better.

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Adding on to that, in my experience I've found it advantageous to find a few teams in the non-power conferences to follow. Not necessarily wager on them every week, but you'll find some great lines in the off conferences if you know what you're doing. The lay better looks for big names and name recognition which can cause some lines to get completely jacked and it's hard to see who's moving the line the sharps or Joe Q. Alabamafan who's going to take 'Bama even if they're laying 100. The service academies are always fun and I've been following SMU, Hawai'i, San Jose State and also watching Houston quite a bit. Remember, you're not going to win every game, every week and even old faithful will let you down from time to time...

Thanks for the great insight and I will take your advice into heart and will continue to check out your lines and use them from time to time, what you think of these games as well: Georgia Tech -7 against Virginia, Pittsburgh -6 1/2 against Utah, Nevada -29 against New Mexico, Oklahoma State -5 1/2 against Texas and Texas Tech -3 against Kansas State

easye688 said:

Thanks for the great insight and I will take your advice into heart and will continue to check out your lines and use them from time to time, what you think of these games as well: Georgia Tech -7 against Virginia, Pittsburgh -6 1/2 against Utah, Nevada -29 against New Mexico, Oklahoma State -5 1/2 against Texas and Texas Tech -3 against Kansas State

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GT should cover, although be wary because Virginia has had 2 weeks to prepare for them and GT has been trending down, beating NC State by 10 and Maryland at home by 5 going 0-2 ATS the last 2 weeks.

Pitt is at home, I'd expect them to bounce back. Rutgers has a very tough D and Pitt couldn't get it going last week. Word of caution, they are one of those teams that I have been on the wrong side of probably 4 times already this year though so I don't have a good read on the Panthers and my take on them means about as much as a pile of dog shit. Elrod has some ties, he probably would be the better person to ask on that one.

No idea on Nevada, I know New Mexico is terrible but 29 is a lot of points... I really have no idea here, could go either way.

Don't know when/where you got OK State -5 1/2, my book has it at -8 right now. I'm taking Texas in this one, although keep in mind I got in at +8, not +5 1/2. OK State has a terrible defense. They'll score, but I think Texas will too. Texas is better than they looked last week, Oklahoma is simply on a different level compared to most college teams and I think the line is a little soft because of the drubbing they gave the Longhorns. Also, keep this stat in mind. Since Mack Brown took over in '98, Texas is 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS the game after playing OU. Last year they went into Lincoln as 10 point dogs and upset Nebraska.

I don't think Texas Tech is all that good but this could be a letdown spot here for KState. Coming off of 3 big time wins and GETTING 3 against a Texas Tech team who hasn't beaten anyone? I dunno, just looks a little fishy to me. Wouldn't be surprised if Texas Tech covers here. Just not a good spot for the Wildcats.

Ok here are the rest of my college picks for the weekend.

OK State @ Texas +8
See above for the reasoning.

UAB @ Tulsa Over 58
Tulsa plays at such an uptempo pace, especially at home where they score points in bunches. Should see plenty of points in this one.

Va Tech -7 @ Wake Forest
Yep, Wake Forest beat Florida State last week. Doesn't matter. Va Tech will simply outphysical Wake in this one. Its a better matchup for the Hokies than it was for the Seminoles.

USC @ Cal Over 56
Both teams can score, Maynard will play for Cal. I would take this at 60 and still feel pretty confident.

7 Point Teaser:
SD State @ Air Force Pick, Over 52; USC @ Cal +10.5, Over 51.5

Another thing to add on the GT/VA game, Georgia Tech has consistently not covered the spread when facing a team coming off of a bye. Their next 3 are also Miami, Clemson, and Va Tech so definite look ahead possibility.

Wow way off on Cal/USC, glad Cal's QB decided to shit the bed lol.
Forgot to add yesterday:

Straight Wager 10/13/11 16:11 ET
Result: Wager Won
Rangers(Texas) Wilson 5
Tigers(Detroit) Verlander 7 10/13/11(16:25 ET)
Tigers(Detroit) -150 Listed

Adding Hawaii -5.5 @ San Jose State
SJSU's star running back Brandon Rutley is out tonight, Warriors QB Bryant Moniz is 9th in the nation in total offense, putting up 340.8 YPG. Hawaii draws a lot of criticism for not being able to play on the mainland, but they blew the doors off La. Tech and are coming off a bye. Defensively they are holding opponents to 93 rushing YPG and 327 total YPG while SJSU gives up an average of 415 total yards and almost 31 PPG. Warriors are 11-3 as favorites and 8-2 off wins against conference rivals ATS the last 3 years. SJSU is 7-17 ATS the last 3 seasons playing on grass.

Wow Hawaii is looking terrible. Look at the stats and they are the better team, but they are playing like shit. 5 turnovers in the first half? Guess that's why Vegas consistently makes money and why its called gambling...

OK I'm banking on the fact that Hawaii simply CANNOT turn the ball over 5 more times in the second half and I'm taking Hawaii -7 2nd half. I'm probably gonna kick my own ass after this one is over