Just an addition to the story. Did you hear what Romney said when all the candidates were asked what they would change about their campaign if they could go back and do one thing differently?

Romney said "I would have fought for 25 more votes in Iowa"

Obama's odds of winning reelection soared by 2.2% today on Intrade. He's trading at $5.42 a share now with $5.00 being 50/50, best he's been at since mid summer. If the GOP primaries go for a couple more months, Obama will be a lock.

Well I can guarantee that the primaries will go for more than a couple more months, and it still isn't a lock.

Do you really believe that after two more months, there can't be a big enough change in the next 6 months after that to change the election? I believe it is more than just possible, it is rather likely.

KAWDUP said:

Well I can guarantee that the primaries will go for more than a couple more months, and it still isn't a lock.

Do you really believe that after two more months, there can't be a big enough change in the next 6 months after that to change the election? I believe it is more than just possible, it is rather likely.

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Possible, not likely. Hence the odds makers are handicapping it like they are with a strong trend towards Obama.

Kerry was beating Bush soundly at this same point in the process in 2004. Kerry was on TV all the time and had just participated in several debates on National TV and Bush had not really begun to campaign yet so that makes sense. Kerry was up by 5-10 points in a head to head with Bush all through January of 2004 and Bush at that time had a stronger approval rating than Obama does now.

This is the nightmare scenario for Romney, he's being picked apart by Republicans while still being the clear front runner so Obama and the Democrats can target him as well, he'll spend $50 Million+ over the next few months just defending himself from Newt and Company all the while Obama is building the largest campaign coffers in history.

Well as I said, it is more than just possible, it is rather likely. Gee I wonder if stating the same thing over again will make the argument any stronger.

You also have a strange choice of words. I haven't seen anything but the tax issue give Romney any nightmares yet.

. . . and if you're using those other facts to somehow say that the odds makers have any more clue than any of the other pundits, all I can do is laugh.