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grandy · Feb 17, 2012

Republican Nomination: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Santorum (33.8) at +5.8% over Romney (28) and looks to be climbing
Newt has fallen to about 15%

February 28

Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_republican_presidential_primary-1622.html

Romney still has a lead in Arizona but the latest Rasmussen poll has the gap between him and Santorum has closed quite a bit

Michigan: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-1589.html

Santorum has gained a lot of support this past week and is now ahead of Romney by about 10%

March 6

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-1600.html

Santorum has overtaken Gingrich (or more appropriately, Gingrich dropped like a rock, Romney stayed about the same, and Santorum soared) and leads by about 7% with the latest Rasmussen poll having up as high as 18% over Romney

Georgia http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_republican_presidential_primary-1602.html

No surprise here, Gingrich up by about 10~15% over Santorum

As for the vs Obama polls, Obama still holds 5%+ leads over all the candidates.

Republican turnout hasn't been promising so far, but we'll see how accurate these polls are.

Monster · Feb 17, 2012

i forget who said it...but they were saying that mitt romney is the most liberal Republican nominee frontrunner in history and Santorum is the most conservative republican nominee ever....so what is voter's problem?

Not sure how true either of those statements are, but it is true that Santorum is much more conservative. In a year dominated by the tea bag party, how is Romney even close to Santorum?

Michchamp · Feb 17, 2012

when they consider Romney liberal, are they basing that on his record as gov. of Massachusetts, or the things "candidate Romney" is saying now? Because he's a lot more conservative today than he used to be...

lions2011 · Feb 17, 2012

Romney losing Michigan would be a pretty big deal.

I still think this thing is going to the convention , especially now with Texas pushing back it's voting date.

Monster · Feb 17, 2012

MichChamp02 said:
when they consider Romney liberal, are they basing that on his record as gov. of Massachusetts, or the things "candidate Romney" is saying now? Because he's a lot more conservative today than he used to be...

he's only more conservative because he's running for president. He's flip flopped on far too many issues just to seem more conservative.

redandguilty · Feb 17, 2012

Romneybot said:
Republican turnout hasn't been promising so far, but we'll see how accurate these polls are.

Republicans are hosed this time around. That party is broken right now. I'd even vote republican if it wasn't for all the republicans.

grandy · Feb 17, 2012

I wouldn't be too shocked to see Romney transform into a moderate, if he gets the nomination. He just has to wear his right wing nut job hat for a few more months while hoping his team can put out enough negative ads to bury Santorum. Romney just seems so

johnny2x2x · Feb 17, 2012

SLICK said:
Romney losing Michigan would be a pretty big deal.

I still think this thing is going to the convention , especially now with Texas pushing back it's voting date.

The Super PACs are all but assuring a brokered convention. Gingrich's billionaire just pledged another $10 Million, assuring that the Newt stays in for the long haul. Neither the Newt or Santorum can win the 50% of the delegates to avoid a brokered convention IMO, but they don't have to, they just have to make sure the Mitt doesn't get to 50% of the delegates and they'll get their chance at the convention. If they both stay in for the long haul they will indeed do that.

If they go to a brokered convention and it's handled poorly (which it will be, this is the GOP we're talking about), we will see an epic beat down of the GOP candidate by Obama in November.

None of the candidates have much of a chance to beat Obama at this point, but it's still an important nominee for the future of the GOP. Nominate Romney and he'll lose as a moderate. The GOP will move way further Right because their moderate candidate got thrashed again. This IMO will spell doom for the Republican party.

Nominate the Frothy Mix and he'll get utterly thrashed and maybe the GOP will come back towards the center and have a future.

lions2011 · Feb 17, 2012

Obama just raised 29.1 million in January and already has 1/4 of a billion in money and thats not even his PAC money.

once they settle on a sacrificial lamb they are just going to get ass pounded by the Obama campaign in media buys.

johnny2x2x · Feb 17, 2012

SLICK said:
Obama just raised 29.1 million in January and already has 1/4 of a billion in money and thats not even his PAC money.

once they settle on a sacrificial lamb they are just going to get ass pounded by the Obama campaign in media buys.

Yeah, Obama will have over $1 Billion to spend for this campaign. Although Wall Street is still backing the Mitt 2-1, they'll start to move their money over once it becomes more obvious Obama wont lose. Wall Street always bets on the winning horse, just as soon as they know he's winning.

KAWDUP · Feb 17, 2012

johnny2x2x said:
[quote author=lions2011 board=talkpolitics thread=5523 post=126560 time=1329501857]

If they go to a brokered convention and it's handled poorly (which it will be, this is the GOP we're talking about), we will see an epic beat down of the GOP candidate by Obama in November.

Can I get the lotto numbers for this November please?

Amazing how sure of it you seem to be. Figuring that maybe if you say it enough, someone besides the left wing nuts will actually believe it?

You don't know crap, because it is still a crapshoot.

lions2011 · Feb 17, 2012

KAWDUP said:
johnny2x2x said:

[quote author=lions2011 board=talkpolitics thread=5523 post=126560 time=1329501857]

If they go to a brokered convention and it's handled poorly (which it will be, this is the GOP we're talking about), we will see an epic beat down of the GOP candidate by Obama in November.

Click to expand...

Can I get the lotto numbers for this November please?

Amazing how sure of it you seem to be. Figuring that maybe if you say it enough, someone besides the left wing nuts will actually believe it?

You don't know crap, because it is still a crapshoot.

even the right is talking brokered convention...lol

none of them are going to have the delegates to secure it , especially with Texas pushing back.

some of the "established Repubs" are now saying if Mittens loses Michigan they're gonna go looking for a new candidate.

he just had a key endorsement in Ohio flip over to Santorum on him.

the thing is a real real mess for the party.

deathroh · Feb 17, 2012

MichChamp02 said:
when they consider Romney liberal, are they basing that on his record as gov. of Massachusetts, or the things "candidate Romney" is saying now? Because he's a lot more conservative today than he used to be...

If a politician is supposed to represent the wants and needs of the people he serves, then I guess this is a good thing. Of course when you do something that's right as a politician you've likely signed your death certificate, as his "liberal" days in Mass will hurt him with his base and open him up to flip flop charges in the big election.

(not that I'm saying Romney is some righteous fellow, just sayin...)

johnny2x2x · Feb 17, 2012

KAWDUP said:
johnny2x2x said:

[quote author=lions2011 board=talkpolitics thread=5523 post=126560 time=1329501857]

If they go to a brokered convention and it's handled poorly (which it will be, this is the GOP we're talking about), we will see an epic beat down of the GOP candidate by Obama in November.

Click to expand...

Can I get the lotto numbers for this November please?

Amazing how sure of it you seem to be. Figuring that maybe if you say it enough, someone besides the left wing nuts will actually believe it?

You don't know crap, because it is still a crapshoot.

Nah, don't know the lotto numbers, but it's hardly a crap shoot right now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney is 6 points behind at a point in the race where he's supposed to ahead of Obama (whose campaign is just piling cash right now) if he wants to stand a chance.

He's only about 60% on Intrade right now though.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Face it, Obama is a solid favorite right now and with the GOP nomination process being a clown show there is little chance for an upset.

redandguilty · Feb 17, 2012

johnny2x2x said:
SLICK said:

Obama just raised 29.1 million in January and already has 1/4 of a billion in money and thats not even his PAC money.

once they settle on a sacrificial lamb they are just going to get ass pounded by the Obama campaign in media buys.

Click to expand...

Yeah, Obama will have over $1 Billion to spend for this campaign. Although Wall Street is still backing the Mitt 2-1, they'll start to move their money over once it becomes more obvious Obama wont lose. Wall Street always bets on the winning horse, just as soon as they know he's winning.

Last time only Goldman Sachs went with Obama. The rest of Wall Street was split pretty evenly or leaned Republican.

KAWDUP · Feb 18, 2012

johnny2x2x said:
KAWDUP said:

Can I get the lotto numbers for this November please?

Amazing how sure of it you seem to be. Figuring that maybe if you say it enough, someone besides the left wing nuts will actually believe it?

You don't know crap, because it is still a crapshoot.

Click to expand...

Nah, don't know the lotto numbers, but it's hardly a crap shoot right now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney is 6 points behind at a point in the race where he's supposed to ahead of Obama (whose campaign is just piling cash right now) if he wants to stand a chance.

He's only about 60% on Intrade right now though.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Face it, Obama is a solid favorite right now and with the GOP nomination process being a clown show there is little chance for an upset.

Actually, it is a crapshoot as you have no idea what will happen betwen now and then.

. . . and those sites you mention are a snapshot in time, and mean relatively little.

Obama is the solid favorite if you're a left wing nut. He doesn't stand a chance if you're a right wing nut. Amazing how that one works out isn't it?

Give me a break.

You guys really think it matters how much of a clown show you think it is? I can tell you unequivocally not very much.

Michchamp · Feb 18, 2012

maybe the money thing is Wall Street trying to send a message that they don't want the Volcker Rule implemented?

I don't know what the actual numbers stand at, but I think Obama has more than any GOP candidate. also, he doesn't have to spend any on the primaries...

KAWDUP · Feb 18, 2012

. . . all good reasons why there is good chance Obama will win.

. . . but it isn't a done deal no matter how many times it is said. Sorry, it is only in their own minds.

lions2011 · Feb 18, 2012

GOP is a MESS period...Romney loses Michigan and it's going to get alot worse.

Newts going nowhere , Adelson just poured 10 more million into his Super Pac just for shits and giggles.

KAWDUP · Feb 18, 2012

. . . and are you still going to eat your shoes if Romney is not the nominee? I'm seem to recall something like that being said in this forum.

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