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cmlfactor
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The one word I will use to explain this prediction is this one: experience.
The one "word" I will use to explain why the Nationals will stumble in the final weeks: Strasburg-less.
Last year on this date, St. Louis sat 7.5 games back of Atlanta for the wild card slot, just .5 game different than the Braves deficit in the East this year. Atlanta knows that a 7 game lead or deficit can disappear in the blink of an eye, because they experienced it from the wrong end. This year they will experience it from the right end, because this team knows that they have the tools to do what last years' Cardinals team did. Despite gelling at the end, the Cardinals bullpen was pretty rotten last year, which was why they needed to make up so much ground to begin with. Atlanta has a better bullpen than last year's Cardinals, made even better by the fact that Freddy Gonzalez hasn't pitched Venters and Kimbrel into the ground this season. Both guys have seen nearly a 25% dip in their workload this year. That is significant.
On the Nationals side of it, I still can't for the life of me figure out why you would DELIBERATELY take away from your starting rotation depth. If they were losing him to injury, all the talk would be about "how can the Nats close this thing out without Strasburg?" But somehow it is different because they're shutting him down intentionally? It makes no sense, and it seems pretty cocky to *assume* that you can maintain a 7 game lead so you can afford to sit your ace. That cockiness will return to bite them.
So there you have it. Why the Atlanta Braves will win the NL east. Debate. Discuss.
The one "word" I will use to explain why the Nationals will stumble in the final weeks: Strasburg-less.
Last year on this date, St. Louis sat 7.5 games back of Atlanta for the wild card slot, just .5 game different than the Braves deficit in the East this year. Atlanta knows that a 7 game lead or deficit can disappear in the blink of an eye, because they experienced it from the wrong end. This year they will experience it from the right end, because this team knows that they have the tools to do what last years' Cardinals team did. Despite gelling at the end, the Cardinals bullpen was pretty rotten last year, which was why they needed to make up so much ground to begin with. Atlanta has a better bullpen than last year's Cardinals, made even better by the fact that Freddy Gonzalez hasn't pitched Venters and Kimbrel into the ground this season. Both guys have seen nearly a 25% dip in their workload this year. That is significant.
On the Nationals side of it, I still can't for the life of me figure out why you would DELIBERATELY take away from your starting rotation depth. If they were losing him to injury, all the talk would be about "how can the Nats close this thing out without Strasburg?" But somehow it is different because they're shutting him down intentionally? It makes no sense, and it seems pretty cocky to *assume* that you can maintain a 7 game lead so you can afford to sit your ace. That cockiness will return to bite them.
So there you have it. Why the Atlanta Braves will win the NL east. Debate. Discuss.
