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Michchamp
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This Saturday, October 29, 2022...
Michigan vs. Michigan State
7:30 PM Eastern on ABC
This will be the 600th game played in Michigan Stadium... the Holiest Place on the Planet. The 500th game was the miraculous Steven Threet-Lead Comeback win from down 19-0 against Wisconsin in 2008.
This is also the 115th game in the Michigan-Michigan State series. Michigan leads 71-38-5 overall, leads 38-29-2 for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, and is 34-18 since 1970. Keep in mind that Michigan only wins when MSU is bad, and that's okay, because MSU is a mediocre program and they are apparently bad more than half the time! And they are bad again this year!
Line: UM -22.5
o/u: 54.5
Sagarin predictor: UM by 18 pts.
WELL we've been waiting for this one for a while. a lot has happened since we played last year. After that win, MSU seemed ascendant. They were 8-0 and controlled their own destiny, and we were 7-1 and did not.
The "FIRE HARBAUGH" crowd was howling... while the victory (and the suspicious reports about LSU courting Tucker) set in motion a deal to line up shady MSU alum mortgage broker creeps to throw massive amounts of cash and guarantees to keep Mel Tucker in East Lansing. MSU fans were exuberant.
Things started to go awry almost immediately for them: they promptly went out and got waxed @Purdue the next week, giving up over 500 yards passing, and two weeks later, as the ink was drying on Tucker's new contract, they were getting completely trampled in Columbus, losing 56-7 in a game that was a blowout almost immediately. Meanwhile, we won out, winning the Big Ten en route to the CFP.
This year, both teams seem to be on divergent trajectories again... we're 7-0 and manhandling our opponents, and they're 3-4 and struggled to get win #3 and halt a painful 4 game slide.
Can MSU win?
It is really hard to imagine that happening, unless we enter the Twilight Zone on Saturday.
MSU is lousy on both sides of the ball... 104th in Total Defense, 78th in Rushing Defense, 122nd in Team Passing Efficiency Defense. And on offense: 104th in YPG, 116th in Rushing Offense, and 53rd in Team Passing Efficiency. The only stat I could find where they weren't terrible was tackles-for-loss allowed, in which they were slightly better than us.
About the only advantage they have on paper is that they've played a tougher schedule than we have (Sagarin-ranked 16th, vs. 78th for us)
Of course, a lot of people are mentioning some past notable upsets in this series, where unranked and unheralded MSU teams beat good Michigan teams. But it's hard to see how those apply this year. 1990 has gone down in history as "Number 1 versus No One" but while MSU was 1-2-1 at the time, their losses were close and to very good teams, and they went on to win a share of the Big Ten title. That's not likely to happen this season...
In 2001... they were lousy, but not hopeless. 4-2 when we played, not 3-4, and it was in EL. And 2020 was not a real year for football.
This MSU team doesn't really have anything special to hold on to. If they win this game, or even keep it within a score, consider it a miracle. Wonder if Mel Tucker went out and lined up a bunch of ringers to play, instead of his regular guys. Go out and buy a lotto ticket.
We should have won that damn game last year... I was reading through the play-by-play recap, and they needed like 7 or 8 different things to all go perfectly their way to come back from 30-14, and every single thing did. GODDAMNIT.
Bring Paul Home!
So go ahead and make your predictions, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, LEAVE THE WOOFING AND BARKING FOR OTHER THREADS!
Michigan vs. Michigan State
7:30 PM Eastern on ABC
This will be the 600th game played in Michigan Stadium... the Holiest Place on the Planet. The 500th game was the miraculous Steven Threet-Lead Comeback win from down 19-0 against Wisconsin in 2008.
This is also the 115th game in the Michigan-Michigan State series. Michigan leads 71-38-5 overall, leads 38-29-2 for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, and is 34-18 since 1970. Keep in mind that Michigan only wins when MSU is bad, and that's okay, because MSU is a mediocre program and they are apparently bad more than half the time! And they are bad again this year!
Line: UM -22.5
o/u: 54.5
Sagarin predictor: UM by 18 pts.
WELL we've been waiting for this one for a while. a lot has happened since we played last year. After that win, MSU seemed ascendant. They were 8-0 and controlled their own destiny, and we were 7-1 and did not.
The "FIRE HARBAUGH" crowd was howling... while the victory (and the suspicious reports about LSU courting Tucker) set in motion a deal to line up shady MSU alum mortgage broker creeps to throw massive amounts of cash and guarantees to keep Mel Tucker in East Lansing. MSU fans were exuberant.
Things started to go awry almost immediately for them: they promptly went out and got waxed @Purdue the next week, giving up over 500 yards passing, and two weeks later, as the ink was drying on Tucker's new contract, they were getting completely trampled in Columbus, losing 56-7 in a game that was a blowout almost immediately. Meanwhile, we won out, winning the Big Ten en route to the CFP.
This year, both teams seem to be on divergent trajectories again... we're 7-0 and manhandling our opponents, and they're 3-4 and struggled to get win #3 and halt a painful 4 game slide.
Can MSU win?
It is really hard to imagine that happening, unless we enter the Twilight Zone on Saturday.
MSU is lousy on both sides of the ball... 104th in Total Defense, 78th in Rushing Defense, 122nd in Team Passing Efficiency Defense. And on offense: 104th in YPG, 116th in Rushing Offense, and 53rd in Team Passing Efficiency. The only stat I could find where they weren't terrible was tackles-for-loss allowed, in which they were slightly better than us.
About the only advantage they have on paper is that they've played a tougher schedule than we have (Sagarin-ranked 16th, vs. 78th for us)
Of course, a lot of people are mentioning some past notable upsets in this series, where unranked and unheralded MSU teams beat good Michigan teams. But it's hard to see how those apply this year. 1990 has gone down in history as "Number 1 versus No One" but while MSU was 1-2-1 at the time, their losses were close and to very good teams, and they went on to win a share of the Big Ten title. That's not likely to happen this season...
In 2001... they were lousy, but not hopeless. 4-2 when we played, not 3-4, and it was in EL. And 2020 was not a real year for football.
This MSU team doesn't really have anything special to hold on to. If they win this game, or even keep it within a score, consider it a miracle. Wonder if Mel Tucker went out and lined up a bunch of ringers to play, instead of his regular guys. Go out and buy a lotto ticket.
We should have won that damn game last year... I was reading through the play-by-play recap, and they needed like 7 or 8 different things to all go perfectly their way to come back from 30-14, and every single thing did. GODDAMNIT.
Bring Paul Home!
So go ahead and make your predictions, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, LEAVE THE WOOFING AND BARKING FOR OTHER THREADS!
