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Week 5 Score Prediction Thread - @ Nebraska

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
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33,981
This Saturday, September 30, 2023, @ 3:30 PM Eastern Time on FOX, Michigan takes on Nebraska.

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Line: UM -17
o/u: 39
Sagarin Predictor: 7.5 pt Michigan win (seems closer than expected)

About our opponent: the University of Nebraska, Lincoln (not Omaha).

I realized we've never done much of a background on Nebraska. Past threads were done by Nebraska-Hater Victors, except for last year's thread, where Tinsel filled in for me and did an adequate, but pedestrian job, so no one has covered much about the actual university.

I've actually randomly known quite a few Nebraska alums (at a past job), and have to say they were great people, and were enthusiastic softball and volleyball players on our work league teams. So I don't hate Nebraska like some do... and therefore will give them their due.

The University of Nebraska, Lincoln was founded by the Nebraska legislature in 1869, as part of the Morril Act which created Land Grant colleges across the country. Not much else of its history is too notable; after its founding, it grew by leaps and bounds, but struggled with its identity at times, as its state legislature wasn't always pro-education, and didn't allot adequate funds for buildings and infrastructure until the 1890's. So that's that. It had some tough times during the Great Depression as agriculture in Nebraska suffered.

Notable alums: Warren Buffet, General John "Black Jack" Pershing, Johnny Carson, and of course, Tom Osbourne.
Dumbass bottom-feeder comedian "Larry the Cable Guy" attended, but did not graduate (no surprise there...)

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How's About Nebraska Foot Ball???

Nebraska football was actually mediocre for much of its history. It played its first game in 1890, but other than some success in the 1930's, it did not do well until it had a president who decided to promote athletics on campus. In the late 1950's, they tried to hire then-MSU coach Duffy Daughtery, who turned them down, but suggested they hire Bob Devaney away from Wyoming. This was the hiring decision that made them.

From 1962 to 1972, Devaney won 8 conference championships and 2 Nat'l titles (1970 & 1971). He retired after the '72 season and handed the reins to Tom Osbourne, who went on to win a boatload of conference championships, and a few National Titles even... but NOT in 1997... they did NOT win the 1997 national title in football. We did. End of story.

After Tom Osbourne retired at the end of the 1997 season (NOT winning another national title in the process), his hand-picked successer, Frank Solich took over, and lead them to several solid good-but-not great seasons; he had a 58-19 record there and was near the end of a 9-3 (eventual 10-3) season when they fired him for performance.

This was a classic example of why you DO NOT listen to your idiot fans and fire an otherwise good coach for failing to consistently win it all... since they fired Frank Solich, they've been largely mediocre. And when they have been decent, it's come at the price of having a maniac like Bo Pelini at the helm (more on him below), and even then they weren't that good. Since they fired Frank Solich in 2003, they've had 5 different coaches, and two interims.

Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2010; their first season was 2011. It's hard to remember now, but they were actually decent, though inconsistent, for a while. They won at least nine (9) games each of the first four Big Ten seasons, and played for a conference title in 2012 (hilariously getting beat 70-31 by a Wisconsin team that went 8-6 and only played for the title because Penn State and Ohio State were both under post-season bans).
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Pelini eventually got fired in 2015 for his unhinged and profane rants at officials, Nebraska fans, and his bosses. He kept making these, never learning to keep his mouth shut, even though people inside the program kept leaking everything he said to the press. Here's one example he made after a comeback win against OSU in 2011 (he had to publicly apologize each time he made one of these):
Our crowd. What a bunch of fucking fair-weather fucking?they can all kiss my ass out the fucking door. 'Cause the day is fucking coming now. We'll see what they can do when I'm fucking gone. I'm so fucking pissed off.
Head-to-Head Records
We are 5-4 vs. Nebraska going back to 1949; I don't think we played them prior to that.
We're 4-2 against them since they entered the Big Ten (Brady Hoke lost the two); last game was an easy 34-3 win last year. We're on a 3-game win streak.

CURRENTLY...
Nebraska is 2-2, having lost @Minnesota and @Colorado, before beating a couple of cupcakes (1-3 NIU and 2-3 Louisiana Tech) at home. I saw parts of those Minnesota and Colorado games, and they were painful to watch. This team has talent, but is sloppy as hell and can't hold on to the ball.

They're a running team now (again); they've been avg. 30-40 carries/game, versus passing attempts in the teens. They're currently 6th in the NCAA in rushing ypg, but 126th in PASSING ypg., and their team Passing Efficiency isn't much better (106th).

Did I mention they're sloppy?: they're penalized regularly (64th in the NCAA), for a lot of yards (80th, or 55 penalty yards/game), and at taking care of the ball (119th in turnover margin @ -1.25/game).

Their defense is solid, however, this might be a measure of playing mostly passing teams and consistently giving them the ball in good field position: they're 1st in Rush Defense (we're 12th); and not too bad in PED (41st).

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Will Michigan finally beat the spread?

It's hard to know how this plays out; I don't think they're as bad as people think they are & they have talent in some positions, but they're not well-drilled, and if we can get in their backfield, it looks like this could get ugly for them.

So go ahead and make your predictions, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always, leave the woofing and barking for the other threads!!!
 
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Michigan 27
Nebraska 3

Updating Nebraska total since they're down to a walk-on QB.
 
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The Cornhuskers are mostly a running team. Michigan's D will shut them down. Predict a pick 6.

Michigan 42
Nebraska 7
 
Several of these games lately with them seem pretty close before Michigan gets it in gear. I predict something similar. They keep it close for a half due to inspired defense at home, but eventually we wear them down.

Michigan 35
Nebraska 10
 
29-12 Michigan

Struggle to start the game in the first road game, but turn it around in the second half with a couple TDs in the 3rd.
 
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