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Week 6 Score Prediction Thread - Brown Jug Game @ Minnesota

Michchamp

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
33,990
This Saturday, October 7, 2023 @ 7:30 PM EDT, Michigan plays Minnesota in Minneapolis.
This game will be televised on Peacock again.
(good thing I forgot to cancel it... Goddamnit.)

Line: Michigan -16.5
Total: 45.5
Sagarin Prediction: 17 pt. Michigan win

This game is, of course, for the Little Brown Jug, the oldest trophy game in college football.

jugsmall.gif

This is what it used to look like.

We've been playing Minnesota for a long time... the first game in the series was in 1892. The game the Brown Jug was actually used for was a 6-6 tie @ Minnesota in 1903. The "Oscar" who captured it was one "Oscar Munson" Minnesota's Finnish equipment manager. There is some dispute as to whether he captured it, or we just left it there and went back to Michigan. The first "Brown Jug Game" was a few years after that, in 1909.

jugs.jpg

We lead the series overall, 76-25-3, although it was a lot closer prior to 1968... like a lot of our serieses...

MICHIGAN is currently on a three game win streak, going back to 2015; our last win was in 2020, when it looked like Joe Milton was going to be our next great QB for a brief moment, before it was clear he was "not him."

About our opponent
The University of Minnesota - Twin Cities is the flagship campus of the UMinnesota system. It was founded in 1851 as a college prep school a few years before Minnesota became a state, although it received land through the later Morril Act andas so became a "land grant school," eventually, as most of our opponents are, although as one can see through Minnesota's ranking and famous alumni, it's one of the better Land Grants

Famous Alumni
If you like milquetoast failed Democratic presidential candidates, Minnesota is YOUR PLACE! Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Tim Pawlenty are all alums. Less-milquetoast failed presidential Candidate Eugene McCarthy is also an alum, as is former Michigan governor Jim Blanchard.


A surprising number of famous actors attended as well: Loni Anderson, Henry Fonda, Jessica Lange, and Ron Perlman are all Gophers.

giphy.gif

Bob Dylan attended, but did not graduate. He probably wrote a song about it...

I never read this shit. tell me about foot ball!
Minnesota Gophers football... used to be prestigious. They've been around a long time and played their first game in 1882.

They had a lot of success early in the 20th century, and on and off until the 1960's. In fact their last Big Ten Championship was in 1962, which is pathetic. Why they bottomed out and stayed that way for so long is beyond the scope of this post.

They've had some decently long coaching tenures during this time, but no one that could manage consistent success.

No, tell me about current foot ball.
PJ Fleck has coached Minnesota since 2017, and has a 47-29 record. He's done better than most during this time, although, still has been a disappointment. MSU Readers will be impressed by his bowl record there: 4-0. By that measure, he's the best coach in the Big Ten.

Currently, Minnesota is 3-2. They squeaked by Nebraska at home in their opener, beat EMU 25-6, and then laid an egg @ UNC, and lost in OT @ Northwestern, before struggling in a home win against Louisiana (Ragin' Cajuns, not LSU Tigers). Other than their game @ UNC, they haven't played a very tough schedule (Sagarin ranks their SOS 62nd, compared to ours at 78th). They appear to be about as tough as Nebraska, who probably would've beat them on a neutral field.

Minnesota lost a lot of talent, especially on defense and starts a few underclassmen there. Their QB, Athan Kaliakmanis, who did not look very impressive in the Nebraska game, is a sophomore, although he started 5 games last year in place of injured Tanner Morgan. He's close to averaging 1 INT/week against mediocre defenses.

Statistics
Most of Minnesota's stats are average, in the 50-100th rank in the NCAAs. They don't have a notable rushing offense or defense, or pass offense or defense, unlike Nebraska. Their rushing offense (37th @ ~193 ypg) appears to be better than their passing offense (113th in passing efficiency).

They're very close to us statistically in turnovers and penalties per game (both are good measures). They don't appear to be as mistake prone as Nebraska.

Fun Fact: Minnesota also has a Harbaugh. Their OC is named Greg Harbaugh Jr., but is no relation to the Fighting Harbaughs we know and love.

So go ahead and make your picks, and post some analysis if you so choose, but as always leave the woofing and barking for other threads!
 
I prefer to think that Minny stole the jug and Michigan had to win it back.

Based on my in depth analysis of the two teams this season, I think this game will be similar to the Nebraska game. I predict a pick 6 in this game. Michigan gets more first place votes after another dominating performance on the field. GO BLUE!

Michigan 48, Minny 7
 
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