Stupid Tigers Trade Porcello for Cespedes + trade Suarez for Simple Simon from reds

[mhughes0021]

The fact that a pitcher can give up 8 runs and still get a W should tell you about using Wins as a measuring stick.

Or a pitcher can give up 1 run, on 1 hit and still get a loss.

A good pitcher on a bad team will not win as many games as the same pitcher on a good team. Lots of ways to gauge a pitcher but his W-L record is not one of them.

this is actually an argument against porcello....a pitcher that never wins over 50% of his starts with the best offense in baseball.

 

[swami45]

this is actually an argument against porcello....a pitcher that never wins over 50% of his starts with the best offense in baseball.

There isn`t a huge list that win 50% of their starts. That offense gave him the 50th best run support in his starts as well

 

[nsonnett14]

There isn`t a huge list that win 50% of their starts. That offense gave him the 50th best run support in his starts as well

Im just curious but you arent even a tigers fan ? All good just wondering is all . I encourage other opinions and all but i gotta say , you dont really know how it is to be able to be stubborn with trades and signings haha . we are now like the yankees , where we expect our gm and team to make major moves .

 

[nsonnett14]

why havent we heard from the all mighty kaline , who started this dumb ass thread ??

 

[swami45]

Im just curious but you arent even a tigers fan ? All good just wondering is all . I encourage other opinions and all but i gotta say , you dont really know how it is to be able to be stubborn with trades and signings haha . we are now like the yankees , where we expect our gm and team to make major moves .

Why because I am defending Porcello`s value? Yes I am, but every fan has the right to be a critic of what there team is doing.

For the record my problem with these trades are the following. While I think Cespedes is overated to a degree I can live with him being traded for porcello since they both are one year from free agency. My problem comes with the other two pieces that come in return, I know the sox farm system and what we got is two throw away pieces. Wilson is a longshot to make the team and Spier is a nobody.

Now if they would have gotten a decent prospect or a bench piece then replaced Porcello with a nice starter via FA or trade I would be happy. In my opinion Simon wont make it to the all star break before he is replaced by Lobstien, he is not a starter and very overrated.

Not to mention the fact we gave up Suarez, while I do not think he has a high ceiling is valuable depth. If you give him up you better get something good, which they did not. Thier infield depth now consists of Perez and Romine, which both are out of options so whoever doesnt make the team will be gone. If Iglesias isnt 100% we dont have the luxuary of Suarez anymore that can be called up and have at least some bat compared to Perez and Romine

 

[nsonnett14]

Why because I am defending Porcello`s value? Yes I am, but every fan has the right to be a critic of what there team is doing.

For the record my problem with these trades are the following. While I think Cespedes is overated to a degree I can live with him being traded for porcello since they both are one year from free agency. My problem comes with the other two pieces that come in return, I know the sox farm system and what we got is two throw away pieces. Wilson is a longshot to make the team and Spier is a nobody.

Now if they would have gotten a decent prospect or a bench piece then replaced Porcello with a nice starter via FA or trade I would be happy. In my opinion Simon wont make it to the all star break before he is replaced by Lobstien, he is not a starter and very overrated.

Not to mention the fact we gave up Suarez, while I do not think he has a high ceiling is valuable depth. If you give him up you better get something good, which they did not. Thier infield depth now consists of Perez and Romine, which both are out of options so whoever doesnt make the team will be gone. If Iglesias isnt 100% we dont have the luxuary of Suarez anymore that can be called up and have at least some bat compared to Perez and Romine

Perez is just as good as suarez . i think people think suarez is the player he was the 1st 2 weeks we had him , but hes trash and a career minor leaguer , so hes no loss . I dont know alot about Craawford exept he wouldnt help us this year , next year ,or the year after so who gives a crap ? and if u wanna say bey u never know with the prospects we gave up , then u can say hey u never know about the prospects we got back . Regardless of age , yeah one is 28 but he still pitched 18 games last year and did well .

 

[swami45]

Perez is just as good as suarez . i think people think suarez is the player he was the 1st 2 weeks we had him , but hes trash and a career minor leaguer , so hes no loss . I dont know alot about Craawford exept he wouldnt help us this year , next year ,or the year after so who gives a crap ? and if u wanna say bey u never know with the prospects we gave up , then u can say hey u never know about the prospects we got back . Regardless of age , yeah one is 28 but he still pitched 18 games last year and did well .

As far as wilson goes yea he pitched well in 18 games this year. The year before though he pitched in 28 and had an era near 5.00. With suarez I never thought he would be a great player but I thought he had the bat to hit decent in the majors (near .250) with Perez I just don`t see him being able to hit enough in the majors. Another all glove no bat player like Danny Worth

 

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[spockmaster]

This thread:

 

[nsonnett14]

Are you people 15 years old on here ?? haha i dont get the stupid pictures or videos , are they suppose to be funny ?

 

[sggatecl]

Are you people 15 years old on here ?? haha i dont get the stupid pictures or videos , are they suppose to be funny ?

 

[nsonnett14]

Brilliant , i guess thats what i should expect from you guys

 

[Rebbiv]

They are both about the same as Cespedes is ? C'mon dude , you are smarter than that . Im starting to think you just know and post numbers / stats and dont really watch or know baseball . Neither one of those clowns can hold cespedes's jock . Also like you said they would require yet another platoon , how many guys and positions can we platoon ?

Last 3 years Away

Nieuwenhuis (27) 90.1 RC/650 .275 BAVG .358 OBP .422 SLG .780 OPS

S. Smith (32) 85.4 RC/650 .253 BAVG .346 OBP .423 SLG .769 OPS

Cespedes (29) 76.9 RC/650 .252 BAVG .296 OBP .449 SLG .743 OPS


Last 3 years UZR/150


Cespedes 3.5

Nieuwenhuis 1.6

S. Smith -0.5


Smith and Nieuwenhuis hit lefthanded, but do not hit lefthanded pitching overly well (like most lefthanded hitters). So, for about a quarter of the games, a guy like Rajai Davis actually becomes useful.


Comparison with Chris Young

Last 3 years Away

C. Young (32( 78.7 RC/650 .229 BAVG .309 OBP .425 SLG .734 OPS

Cespedes (29) 76.9 RC/650 .252 BAVG .296 OBP .449 SLG .743 OPS


Last 3 years UZR/150


Cespedes 3.5

C. Young 3.1


Again, for the learning impaired, Cespedes is not even an average OFer, let alone an average corner OFer. That incorporates his rookie season. There are 84 MLB outfielders with at least 400 PAs away the last 2 years (his non-rookie years).

All OFers

wRC+ = 56 of 84

wOBA = 56 of 84

OPS = 53 of 84


Just LFers (30 of them)

wRC+ = 21 of 30

wOBA = 21 of 30

OPS = 21 of 30


See, my question to all the Cespedes fans, is what attribute does he have that will help this team offensively? All I hear is how is better than what we had. What kind of argument is that? I bought a Dodge Neon because all my other cars suck. Maybe a bad analogy, but there is a trace of truth in it.

If you or anyone thinks my formulated opinion of Cespedes is wrong, fine. Prove me wrong by citing something concrete. This bullshit of just citing shit without backing data is for the birds. He is good because I say so. Or Porcello sucks because I say so.

 

[xer0]

nsonnett, solid posts in the thread.

one of the only posters worth a damn.

:clap:

 

[stonecold2136]

The trade is hard to accept. The numbers Rick put up were trending in the right direction.

He is developed and will probably go on to have a nice season for the Red Sox.

On the flip side, when the post season starts - Where is Rick Porcello?

He does nothing for us in the playoffs.

 

[Rebbiv]

Pretty sure he isnt . considering Price only has about 10 more wins in the same time frame as Porcello . Which makes it an assinine statement

Fact: A starter normally only wins 80% of his Quality Start total given league average run support. The biggest variable is the bullpen that follows a starter or having knuckleheaded managers that pull certain starters at the wrong time or leave them in too long. But there many variables on whether a starter and/or team gets a win, an that is Run Support.

An average AL starter roughly has 50-51% of his starts as Quality. Home parks, like OAK or SDG, can vastly improve the rate of QS. Others, like Coors, can harm it.

Last 3 Years Away (assumes park neutral)

Scherzer 53 GS 38 QS Team is 34-19 .642 WPCT in those starts

Price 48 GS 34 QS Team is 30-18 .625 WPCT in those starts

Porcello 46 GS 25 QS Team is 24-22 .522 WPCT in those starts

Verlander 53 GS 33 QS Team is 26-27 .491 WPCT in those starts

Sanchez 39 GS 24 QS Team is 19-20 .487 WPCT in thos starts


Clear as mud, right? Let's look at the run support for these 5.


Games where team scored 5 or more runs last 3 years away


Sanchez 39 GS 14 Games 35.9% 13-1 .929 WPCT

Scherzer 53 GS 26 Games 49.1% 23-3 .884 WPCT

Porcello 46 GS 23 50.0% games 20-3 .870 WPCT

Price 48 GS 24 Games 50.0% 20-4 .833 WPCT

Verlander 53 GS 21 Games 39.6% 17-4 .810 WPCT

Very similar records. Amazing. There is no difference in wins between Price (6.7 Wins) and Porcello (7.0 Wins) really. In fact, Porcello's team will win more games if he is given 5 runs or more.


So what is the team record when they pitch without 5 runs?

Price 10-14 .417 WPCT

Scherzer 11-16 .407 WPCT

Verlander 9-23 .281 WPCT

Sanchez 6-19 .240 WPCT

Porcello 4-19 .174 WPCT

So, if I stop right here, without further delineating data, the difference between Price and Porcello on the 3 year average is 3.3 Wins to 1.4 Wins, or 2 Win difference. I will further contend that Rick is entering his prime and Price is at the tail end of his.

But let's go further.....

When the team doesn't score 5 runs

**LMI = left after the start pitching an inning

Verlander 32 GS 7 LMI 21.9% 9 IR 5 IS 55.6% Scored

Scherzer 27 GS 7 LMI 25.9% 9 IR 0 IS 00.0% Scored

Price 23 GS 9 LMI 39.1% 9 IR 6 IS 66.7% Scored

Porcello 23 GS 11 LMI 47.8% 14 IR 6 IS 42.9% Scored

Sanchez 25 GS 12 LMI 48.0% 15 IR 4 IS 21.1% Scored


AL Average IS %

2014 = 28.7%

2013 = 29.9%

2012 = 29.4%

Scherzer has been extremely lucky the past 3 years as to who followed him after he left in the middle of an inning. Even Sanchez did very well against the AL Average.

Based on the past 3 years worth of data, yes, Porcello is only 1-2 Wins different than Price, given all other things being equal. Obviously, if I had a choice between Porcello or Price to pitch a playoff game, I would choose Price. But many teams have won the World Series without having anyone better than Porcello as the starting pitching.

We had 3 former CY Young pitchers on our staff last post season and 5 hitters who had been All Stars in the past. How well did that work out?

 

[stonecold2136]

I hope Boras doesn't get Illitch in a closed door meeting about Scherzer.

 

[kalinecountry]

why havent we heard from the all mighty kaline , who started this dumb ass thread ??

I really don't have to explain myself to you or anyone here, but since you wanted to also include me in your trolling I will explain.

I am spread out pretty far every day with many situations that demand much of my time. If you have noticed, I post early mornings and am gone until early to late evening most days.
Between a part time gig I took to finish quarters needed for Social Security, and going to see my elderly mom, I am not here getting involved in any normal or otherwise foolish postings in threads other than posting what I find that has just happened and the Tigers Team Notes.

The Tigers just seem to fix one problem and create another. Since Fister, the scraps received, the several years problem with the bullpen, and saying they are loading it up for bear, to win a world series, since they say they are in a win it all now mode,
the problems for all intensive purposes; losing Scherzer, trading away many of the at least highest ceiling prospects, and now trading Porcello which weakens even further the strength of the team which was starting pitching with the guy from the yankees who might run out of innings with the increase from last year to this of another 60/70 IP and a journey man pitcher simon who like Kinsler faded in the second half.
They get a guy in Cespedes who will hit some homeruns and drive in some rbi's but, they still haven't fixed the top of the order with better contact and obp in the 2 top spots of the batting order. Counting on Rondon who might not pitch effectively until June even if he is ready to start the season, it just seems to me the 4th and 5th spots aren't as good as before.
The Tigers value rbi more than obp. If they had as high a value on obp as the former there would be more opportunities at the top of the order for the middle of the lineup to get those coveted rbi. The bullpen imo is still the achilles heel. The Tigers have fallen back to the other teams in the central and those teams have moved up somewhat from last year.
Lastly, for a team that needs to restock some of their best prospects that were traded for these recent new players, they need as many draft picks as they can get, trading for cespedes with the clause he has that a team can't give him an offer to get a draft pick when he leaves in FA doesn't help either.

 

[stonecold2136]

It looks almost like the Tigers are going to start reloading the club through free agency.Sorta the way the Red Wings did before the salary cap was enforced.

If Illitch wants to spend the money so be it.

There isn't much left for the future in the farm system.

This has worked for some clubs has not worked for others.

 

[nsonnett14]

I really don't have to explain myself to you or anyone here, but since you wanted to also include me in your trolling I will explain.

I am spread out pretty far every day with many situations that demand much of my time. If you have noticed, I post early mornings and am gone until early to late evening most days.
Between a part time gig I took to finish quarters needed for Social Security, and going to see my elderly mom, I am not here getting involved in any normal or otherwise foolish postings in threads other than posting what I find that has just happened and the Tigers Team Notes.

The Tigers just seem to fix one problem and create another. Since Fister, the scraps received, the several years problem with the bullpen, and saying they are loading it up for bear, to win a world series, since they say they are in a win it all now mode,
the problems for all intensive purposes; losing Scherzer, trading away many of the at least highest ceiling prospects, and now trading Porcello which weakens even further the strength of the team which was starting pitching with the guy from the yankees who might run out of innings with the increase from last year to this of another 60/70 IP and a journey man pitcher simon who like Kinsler faded in the second half.
They get a guy in Cespedes who will hit some homeruns and drive in some rbi's but, they still haven't fixed the top of the order with better contact and obp in the 2 top spots of the batting order. Counting on Rondon who might not pitch effectively until June even if he is ready to start the season, it just seems to me the 4th and 5th spots aren't as good as before.
The Tigers value rbi more than obp. If they had as high a value on obp as the former there would be more opportunities at the top of the order for the middle of the lineup to get those coveted rbi. The bullpen imo is still the achilles heel. The Tigers have fallen back to the other teams in the central and those teams have moved up somewhat from last year.
Lastly, for a team that needs to restock some of their best prospects that were traded for these recent new players, they need as many draft picks as they can get, trading for cespedes with the clause he has that a team can't give him an offer to get a draft pick when he leaves in FA doesn't help either.

Ok then ......sorry i asked