grandy
Senior Member
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2011
- Messages
- 11,642
I would like to see if there is any correlation to win % in the last week, month, etc with playoff success. We limped in 2006 and 2012 and made the WS, that's anecdotal but I don't know how much really has to do with how you're playing unless you're playing poorly due to injuries.
I decided to look into the last 5 seasons based on September record
bold = final four
2013
Cleveland 21-6 (lost WC)
Oakland 19-8 (lost DS)
St. Louis 19-8 (lost WS)
Boston 16-9 (won WS)
Tampa Bay 17-12 (lost DS)
Pittsburgh 15-12 (lost DS)
Cincinnati 14-12 (lost WC)
Detroit 13-13 (lost CS)
Atlanta 13-14 (lost DS)
LA Dodgers 12-15 (lost CS)
2012
Atlanta 19-8 (lost WC)
San Francisco 19-8 (won WS)
Baltimore 19-9 (lost DS)
NY Yankees 17-11 (lost CS)
Oakland 17-11 (lost DS)
Cincinnati 15-11 (lost DS)
Washington 16-12 (lost DS)
Detroit 16-12 (lost WS)
St. Louis 15-12 (lost CS)
Texas 15-13 (lost WC)
2011
Detroit 20-6 (lost CS)
Texas 19-6 (lost WS)
St. Louis 18-8 (won WS)
Arizona 16-9 (lost DS)
Tampa Bay 17-10 (lost DS)
Milwaukee 15-10 (lost CS)
NY Yankees 16-12 (lost DS)
Philadelphia 16-14 (lost DS)
2010
Philadelphia 21-6 (lost CS)
San Francisco 18-8 (won WS)
Minnesota 17-10 (lost DS)
Texas 15-12 (lost WS)
Tampa Bay 13-14 (lost DS)
Atlanta 13-14 (lost DS)
NY Yankees 12-15 (lost CS)
Cincinnati 12-15 (lost DS)
2009
NY Yankees 19-9 (won WS)
Colorado 18-9 (lost DS)
Minnesota 16-11 (lost DS)
LA Angels 16-12 (lost CS)
Philadelphia 17-13 (lost WS)
LA Dodgers 15-12 (lost CS)
Boston 15-13 (lost DS)
St. Louis 13-13 (lost DS)
Finishes based on September winning percentage
.700 or better
1 WS win
2 WS loss
2 CS loss
1 DS loss
2 WC loss
.600 to .699
4 WS win
2 CS loss
6 DS loss
.500 to .599
3 WS loss
4 CS loss
9 DS loss
2 WC loss
below .500
2 CS loss
4 DS loss
Breakdown by postseason finish
WS win
.600-.699 (80%)
.700+ (20%)
WS loss
.500-.599 (60%)
.700+ (40%)
CS loss
.500-.599 (40%)
.700+ (20%)
.600-.699 (20%)
.500- (20%)
DS loss
.500-.599 (45%)
.600-.699 (30%)
.500- (20%)
.700+ (5%)
WC loss
.700+ (50%)
.500-599 (50%)
Based on this limited data,
- The team with the best record in September only won the WS once (2009 Yankees)
- WS winning teams were all .600+
- WS losing teams were all .500+
- 65% of DS losses were from teams below .600
- .700+ teams have lost the WC game in both of its first two years
- No below .500 teams made it past the CS
- With the exception of the 2013 Dodgers and 2010 Yankees, the teams with the worst record lost their first series
I'd love to do more but I don't have the time.
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