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Quality Starts

Rebbiv

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2011
Messages
6,302
Definition:
A starting pitcher records a quality start when he pitches at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer. A starting pitcher has two jobs: to prevent runs and get outs. The quality start statistic helps to quantify which pitchers did a "quality" job in those two departments.
However, the quality start has come under criticism. A pitcher who allows three earned runs over six innings would have an ERA of 4.50 -- not good -- and yet he still receives a quality start. In that sense, quality starts must be taken with a grain of salt. But there's still something to be said about the stat, given that six innings and three earned runs are pretty standard barometers for a successful start.

Origin:
John Lowe, then a sportswriter for the Philadelphia Inquirer, coined the term in 1985 as a means to gauge whether a pitcher did his job. Lowe also created another wrinkle to go along with the stat. He called quality starts in which a pitcher got the loss "tough losses." And he called non-quality starts in which a pitcher earned the win "cheap wins."


I will also add, as a "general rule", given average run support, a team will win as many games as they have Quality Starts.


2014-2016 MLB Average for All Starters


5.81 IP 4.08 ERA 50.2 QS%


There were 205 Pitchers with at least 26 Games Started over the last 3 years. Their average QS = 53.5% All the other pitchers = 32.1 QS%


The top 100 pitchers in games started (60 GS) over the last 3 years = 57.3% QS


The top 154 pitchers in games started (39 GS) over the last 3 years = 54.9% QS


Top 30 with at least 39 GS over last 3 years (aka "Aces")
1. C. Kershaw (81 GS) 84.0%
2. J. Lester (96 GS) 77.1%
3. C. Sale (89 GS) 75.3%
4. Z. Greinke (90 GS) 74.4%
5. J. deGrom (76 GS) 73.7%
6. G. Richards (64 GS) 73.4%
7. J. Lackey (93 GS) 73.1%
8. D. Keuchel (88 GS) 72.7%
9. C. Hamels (94 GS) 72.3%
10. J. Arrieta (89 GS) 71.9%
11. J. Quintana (96 GS) 71.9%
12. J. Cueto (98 GS) 71.4%
13. M. Scherzer (100 GS) 71.0%
14. D. Price (99 GS) 70.7%


15. M. Tanaka (75 GS) 69.3%
16. M. Bumgarner (99 GS) 68.7%
17. J. Verlander (86 GS) 68.6%
18. C. Kluber (98 GS) 68.4%
19. Aaron Sanchez (41 GS) 68.3%
20. G. Cole (75 GS) 68.0%
21. S. Gray (86 GS) 67.4%
22. R. Porcello (92 GS) 67.4%
23. L. Lynn (64 GS) 67.2%
24. F. Hernandez (90 GS) 66.7%
25. A. Wainwright (69 GS) 66.7%
26. J. Fernandez (48 GS) 66.7%
27. T. Ross (65 GS) 66.2%
28. J. Eickhoff (41 GS) 65.9%
29. J. Zimmermann (83 GS) 65.1%
30. C. Rodon (51 GS) 64.7%


Bottom 10
1. M. Pelfrey (57 GS) 29.8%
2. M. Cain (43 GS) 30.2%
3. K. Kendrick (59 GS) 32.2%
4. T. Milone (40 GS) 32.5%
5. B. Norris (58 GS) 32.8%
6. V. Nuno (39 GS) 33.3%
7. E. Ramirez (42 GS) 33.3%
8. R. Ray (61 GS) 34.4%
9. N. Karns (43 GS) 34.9%
10. D. Hutchinson (63 GS) 34.9%


Ramirez, Ray and Hutchinson are all 26 or under.


Ages 23-27 = 50.4 GS 51.5% QS


Ages 28-32 = 61.9 GS 53.4% QS


Ages 33+ = 68.9 GS 54.0% QS (includes retirees from 2014 and 2015)


Ages 33+ = 71.0 GS 53.8% QS (only those that started in 2016)


There were just 47 pitchers between 23-26 who started in 2016. The bottom 5 in QS%.


1. E. Butler 21.4%
2. D. Norris 25.9%
3. M. Boyd 33.3%
4. E. Ramirez 33.3%
5. R. Ray 34.4%


Top 10, 23-26 year olds


1. A. Sanchez 68.3%
2. G. Cole 68.0%
3. J. Fernandez 66.7%
4. J. Eickhoff 65.9%
5. Z. Wheeler 65.6%
6. C. Rodon 64.7%
7. J. Teheran 63.5%
8. N. Syndergaard 63.0%
9. M. Stroman 62.5%
10. A. Wood 62.1%


14. M. Fulmer 57.7%
 
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good stuff.

I think it is just a stamina issue for Norris. He had 13 starts. One of the starts he got hurt after 2 innings. Here is the positive I take out of that. In those 12 starts he averaged 5.53 innings and his ERA was 3.26. Also, he never gave up more than 3 earned runs and in 8 out of 12 he gave up 2 or less.

Norris is only 23. I think / hope with some extra work on conditioning and gaining strength in his lower body, he can go further into games and be an effective starter.
 
Daniel Norris

2015 = 13 GS 3 QS
2016 = 13 GS 4 QS

2015 = His ERA for all starts was 3.75 ERA, but he only averaged 4.62 IP/GS. 7 of the 13 = 3 runs or less. If you just take the starts where he went 5 innings. 5.90 IP/GS 2.18 ERA

2016 = Granted, he went at least 5 in 12 of the 13 GS. 5.53 IP/GS and 3.26 ERA

Of course it is stamina and economy of pitches, as it is with all starters. There is a history of MLB starters beginning their careers at 19, 20, 21, 22 or 23 that fared better with Quality Starts. Historically speaking, pitchers do not last long as a starter if you cannot give at least 50% of your starts as Quality. Sure, players like Pelfrey are still given a chance. But therein lies the problem. If you took away all the stats from Pelfrey when he didn't go at least 5.0 IP he would also look like a great pitcher.

I have stated it before. Daniel Norris has electric stuff and I believe he would make a dominant late inning relief pitcher. I don't think he will every become an effective starter over the long haul (nor will Boyd). I know all about age and how it comes into "play". But there is nothing from Daniel Norris' minor league starts that would suggest anything other than lack of stamina. He couldn't string together Quality Starts in the minors either.

The issue is for most MLB starters, that not all those non-quality starts are of the 5 inning type. A vast majority is 6 or more innings with say 4 ER. And some of that is by the relievers that were brought in. So when a Justin Verlander goes 7 IP and 4 ER or 6.6 IP and 4 ER, that sometimes isn't captured in all of this.

An occasional start of 5 IP and less than 3 ER might be helpful to a team, long term it can cause issues, especially tiring a good or bad pen. That causes a domino effect.

Fulmer

First 13 GS = 7 QS

Last 13 GS = 8 QS

In Fulmer's first 4 GS, he didn't have a QS. So he actually ended with 15 QS in 22 GS = 68.2% QS That percentage is right up there with elite pitchers. Take away the first 4 starts = 6.35 IP/GS 2.58 ERA

Oh, and Fulmer is also just 23.
 
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Daniel Norris

2015 = 13 GS 3 QS
2016 = 13 GS 4 QS

2015 = His ERA for all starts was 3.75 ERA, but he only averaged 4.62 IP/GS. 7 of the 13 = 3 runs or less. If you just take the starts where he went 5 innings. 5.90 IP/GS 2.18 ERA

2016 = Granted, he went at least 5 in 12 of the 13 GS. 5.53 IP/GS and 3.26 ERA

Of course it is stamina and economy of pitches, as it is with all starters. There is a history of MLB starters beginning their careers at 19, 20, 21, 22 or 23 that fared better with Quality Starts. Historically speaking, pitchers do not last long as a starter if you cannot give at least 50% of your starts as Quality. Sure, players like Pelfrey are still given a chance. But therein lies the problem. If you took away all the stats from Pelfrey when he didn't go at least 5.0 IP he would also look like a great pitcher.

I have stated it before. Daniel Norris has electric stuff and I believe he would make a dominant late inning relief pitcher. I don't think he will every become an effective starter over the long haul (nor will Boyd). I know all about age and how it comes into "play". But there is nothing from Daniel Norris' minor league starts that would suggest anything other than lack of stamina. He couldn't string together Quality Starts in the minors either.

The issue is for most MLB starters, that not all those non-quality starts are of the 5 inning type. A vast majority is 6 or more innings with say 4 ER. And some of that is by the relievers that were brought in. So when a Justin Verlander goes 7 IP and 4 ER or 6.6 IP and 4 ER, that sometimes isn't captured in all of this.

An occasional start of 5 IP and less than 3 ER might be helpful to a team, long term it can cause issues, especially tiring a good or bad pen. That causes a domino effect.

Fulmer

First 13 GS = 7 QS

Last 13 GS = 8 QS

In Fulmer's first 4 GS, he didn't have a QS. So he actually ended with 15 QS in 22 GS = 68.2% QS That percentage is right up there with elite pitchers. Take away the first 4 starts = 6.35 IP/GS 2.58 ERA

Oh, and Fulmer is also just 23.


Look at the stats of those players you suggest would benefit going into the bullpen. The stats would be averages of batters faced in the lineup, first time, 2nd time, 3rd time etc. Probably pretty glaring... Not sure where to look for stat.

Hendrickson was interesting to watch pitch throughout the season, as was JV in that they appeared to be very effective 3rd time through order where as average to below average pitchers got beat up in this area.
 
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