Welcome to Detroit Sports Forum!

By joining our community, you'll be able to connect with fellow fans that live and breathe Detroit sports just like you!

Get Started
  • If you are no longer able to access your account since our recent switch from vBulletin to XenForo, you may need to reset your password via email. If you no longer have access to the email attached to your account, please fill out our contact form and we will assist you ASAP. Thanks for your continued support of DSF.

The Playoff positioning

I would like to see if there is any correlation to win % in the last week, month, etc with playoff success. We limped in 2006 and 2012 and made the WS, that's anecdotal but I don't know how much really has to do with how you're playing unless you're playing poorly due to injuries.

I decided to look into the last 5 seasons based on September record

bold = final four

2013
Cleveland 21-6 (lost WC)
Oakland 19-8 (lost DS)
St. Louis 19-8 (lost WS)
Boston 16-9 (won WS)

Tampa Bay 17-12 (lost DS)
Pittsburgh 15-12 (lost DS)
Cincinnati 14-12 (lost WC)
Detroit 13-13 (lost CS)
Atlanta 13-14 (lost DS)
LA Dodgers 12-15 (lost CS)

2012
Atlanta 19-8 (lost WC)
San Francisco 19-8 (won WS)
Baltimore 19-9 (lost DS)
NY Yankees 17-11 (lost CS)
Oakland 17-11 (lost DS)
Cincinnati 15-11 (lost DS)
Washington 16-12 (lost DS)
Detroit 16-12 (lost WS)
St. Louis 15-12 (lost CS)

Texas 15-13 (lost WC)

2011
Detroit 20-6 (lost CS)
Texas 19-6 (lost WS)
St. Louis 18-8 (won WS)

Arizona 16-9 (lost DS)
Tampa Bay 17-10 (lost DS)
Milwaukee 15-10 (lost CS)
NY Yankees 16-12 (lost DS)
Philadelphia 16-14 (lost DS)

2010
Philadelphia 21-6 (lost CS)
San Francisco 18-8 (won WS)

Minnesota 17-10 (lost DS)
Texas 15-12 (lost WS)
Tampa Bay 13-14 (lost DS)
Atlanta 13-14 (lost DS)
NY Yankees 12-15 (lost CS)
Cincinnati 12-15 (lost DS)

2009
NY Yankees 19-9 (won WS)
Colorado 18-9 (lost DS)
Minnesota 16-11 (lost DS)
LA Angels 16-12 (lost CS)
Philadelphia 17-13 (lost WS)
LA Dodgers 15-12 (lost CS)

Boston 15-13 (lost DS)
St. Louis 13-13 (lost DS)



Finishes based on September winning percentage

.700 or better
1 WS win
2 WS loss
2 CS loss
1 DS loss
2 WC loss

.600 to .699
4 WS win
2 CS loss
6 DS loss

.500 to .599
3 WS loss
4 CS loss
9 DS loss
2 WC loss

below .500
2 CS loss
4 DS loss


Breakdown by postseason finish

WS win
.600-.699 (80%)
.700+ (20%)

WS loss
.500-.599 (60%)
.700+ (40%)

CS loss
.500-.599 (40%)
.700+ (20%)
.600-.699 (20%)
.500- (20%)

DS loss
.500-.599 (45%)
.600-.699 (30%)
.500- (20%)
.700+ (5%)

WC loss
.700+ (50%)
.500-599 (50%)

Based on this limited data,

- The team with the best record in September only won the WS once (2009 Yankees)
- WS winning teams were all .600+
- WS losing teams were all .500+
- 65% of DS losses were from teams below .600
- .700+ teams have lost the WC game in both of its first two years
- No below .500 teams made it past the CS
- With the exception of the 2013 Dodgers and 2010 Yankees, the teams with the worst record lost their first series

I'd love to do more but I don't have the time.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top