Rebbiv said:

Do you even know what Moneyball is all about? It is about incorporating analytics into baseball decision making. More and more teams are doing it and supposedly the same with DET this year.

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Moneyball is about using saber metrics and using the theories of probability . Just because it worked for 1 year with A's and the with the movie , all the saber geeks came out in full force . I understand that is your way and thats fine , but theres alot more people that dont agree with that way and stick to old school scouting and determining who is good and who isnt .

RoscoeWallace said:

Moneyball is about using saber metrics and using the theories of probability . Just because it worked for 1 year with A's and the with the movie , all the saber geeks came out in full force . I understand that is your way and thats fine , but theres alot more people that dont agree with that way and stick to old school scouting and determining who is good and who isnt .

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Royals

Red Sox

Cubs

Nats

Cards

Giants

Rays

Astros

All have used tenets of Moneyball the last 3-5 years. I could go on and on. Moneyball isn't just Oakland and OBP. It is finding a metric (aka stat) of value. Finding players that exhibit that value and obtaining them at the right cost. There is such a thing as overspending for a particular value.

If you think tenets of Moneyball is a passing fad, you couldn't be more wrong.

The thing about sabarmetrics vs 2002 is that everybody is more sophisticated about analytics than they used to be. Lots of clubs have some numbers geeks in the front office.

from ESPN article

Justin Upton is in the midst of what has been an excellent Major League Baseball career -- he already has 190 homers before his 29th birthday -- and after a very good 2015 season, he just got a $132.75 million deal from the Detroit Tigers, a merger of player and team that was formally announced Wednesday.

It's a tremendous contract for him, and it wouldn't have been possible without the aggressiveness of Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, who has demonstrated time and again that he is willing to take money from would-be profits -- money out of his own pocket, really -- and spend it because he wants to win. Ilitch has been a great owner for the Tigers, providing a product that inspires the team's fan base.

But there's no getting around this reality: The signing of Upton by the Tigers to this massive contract, right now, is just bad baseball business.

Add the Upton contract to the many others with future payroll obligations that have stacked up for the Tigers, including Miguel Cabrera's, Justin Verlander's, Victor Martinez's and Anibal Sanchez's. Almost all of the sport's teams are getting younger, yet the Tigers are getting older. The fine print:

Cabrera, who will be 33 in April, is signed through the 2023 season, for another $240 million.

Verlander, who turns 33 next month, is signed for another four years at $28 million annually.

Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann turns 30 in May, and he is signed for $110 million over the next five years.

Martinez, 37, is signed for $18 million annually for the next three seasons.

Sanchez, 32, is signed for $16.8 million per year in 2016 and 2017, with a $16 million team option or $5 million buyout for 2018.

Upton, who turns 30 in August 2017, is signed through 2021, at more than $22 million per year.

So long as Ilitch steps in to add whopper contracts without regard to payroll, this has a chance to work. Eventually, the credit-card bill will come due. If and when the Tigers get in line with the usual way teams run their businesses, once that day of reckoning arrives, the team will have to dig itself out of a Grand Canyon-sized hole of contracts.

Hey Tom, I posted the same article a few responses ago

UMRules06 said:

Hey Tom, I posted the same article a few responses ago

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oops...didn't see it.

Typical ESPN talking smack they have no understanding of and really just represents fan chatter.

First, that reporter has NO qualifications compared to Mike Ilitch to define what is good or bad business. Their logic is limited because they do not discuss the impending TV contracts and the appreciation of the Tigers franchise nor the impact that the Tigers success has on other Ilitch ventures, and the potential tax advantages to losing money on the Tigers.

So, (A) maybe one day the "credit card bill will come" but since that analogy to personal finance is not really valid, then again maybe it won't. If the team is gaining in value to the tune of $50-100mil (give or take) a year for the past 20 years, and the owner whose net worth is $5.4bil has actually been making money on the team, even though it has lost about $20mil or so a year for a while. In that situation how can some figurative bill ever even exist?

Further, (B) Ilitch could afford to lose $100mil each year for 54 YEARS! Yes, that is if the Team didn't continue to increase in value, which it will, and if he didn't continue to make money off of his other businesses, which he will.

So, second, yeah, SHUT UP ALREADY ABOUT MONEY THAT ISN'T YOURS AND FINANCES AND ECONOMICS THAT PROBABLY NONE OF US ARE QUALIFIED TO TALK ABOUT.

Third, this BS is just tripe lazy and unethical reporters say to stir up readership.

I like the Upton signing. His numbers are all over the board. You can't really predict what he will do accurately.

He does have a reputation for being lazy. But then again Miggy had a reputation for being a knucklead before he came to Detroit.

If somehow the Tigers find a way to get Upton to tap into all of his potential, he could be one of the top 10 players in baseball

stonecold2136 said:

I like the Upton signing. His numbers are all over the board. You can't really predict what he will do accurately.

He does have a reputation for being lazy. But then again Miggy had a reputation for being a knucklead before he came to Detroit.

If somehow the Tigers find a way to get Upton to tap into all of his potential, he could be one of the top 10 players in baseball

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If anything, accidentally he should be better than Maybin.

JackCade said:

Typical ESPN talking smack they have no understanding of and really just represents fan chatter.

First, that reporter has NO qualifications compared to Mike Ilitch to define what is good or bad business. Their logic is limited because they do not discuss the impending TV contracts and the appreciation of the Tigers franchise nor the impact that the Tigers success has on other Ilitch ventures, and the potential tax advantages to losing money on the Tigers.

So, (A) maybe one day the "credit card bill will come" but since that analogy to personal finance is not really valid, then again maybe it won't. If the team is gaining in value to the tune of $50-100mil (give or take) a year for the past 20 years, and the owner whose net worth is $5.4bil has actually been making money on the team, even though it has lost about $20mil or so a year for a while. In that situation how can some figurative bill ever even exist?

Further, (B) Ilitch could afford to lose $100mil each year for 54 YEARS! Yes, that is if the Team didn't continue to increase in value, which it will, and if he didn't continue to make money off of his other businesses, which he will.

So, second, yeah, SHUT UP ALREADY ABOUT MONEY THAT ISN'T YOURS AND FINANCES AND ECONOMICS THAT PROBABLY NONE OF US ARE QUALIFIED TO TALK ABOUT.

Third, this BS is just tripe lazy and unethical reporters say to stir up readership.

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Buster is a baseball guy and has been for years. I am certain that he knows more about baseball finance than you do. Every team that has "over spent" has fallen off the cliff at one point (see phillies)

It will happen to the Tigers. Mr I is a desperate old man who wants a WS. The moves he is making are not in the best interest of the long term success of the franchise.

I do not see how you can possibly assert that Buster Olney is qualified to discuss the financial side of the Tigers and Mike Ilitch. Being a baseball guy doesn't give him a degree in business or finance.

He is clearly just talking out his ass. First, you say "Every team that has 'over spent' has fallen off the cliff at one point" then cite one team, and, of course you know this, that is a fallacy. Every team owner is not Mike Ilitch, every team and situation are different. Buster Olney and you, are following "common wisdom" which is generally right, right? But not necessarily so.

"It will happen to the Tigers."

It doesn't have to happen in the same way this post has to appear on this forum after I click on the button.

One of the things Olney is doing is judging Mike Ilitch and Al Avila. I am saying, and I am on 100% solid ground here, that Buster Olney is not qualified to do that. Not in any way shape or from. He is an f-ing sports reporter, even as a good sports reporter that does not make him as smart as a Al Avila and Mike Ilitch about the business of building and maintaining a competitive MLB organization. I mean, that a nit-wit like Mitch Album is a smart sports reporter! (have you read his idiotic books? The man is about as deep as a good hallmark card).

Like some reporters are very smart, highly educated, deeply thoughtful, and incredibly knowledgeable people, NONE of those reporters are sports reporters. Buster Olney is a reasonably smart and unusually competent sports reporter, but with that story he is just trotting out some filler to get through the off season.

The Tigers have some expensive aging talent. What gets forgotten about that is that that talent is top of the shelf good, like the tipy-top. After two more seasons of dealing at his previous level (which he sure seemed capable of doing for 11 games last year) JV will start being talked about as a Hall Candidate, Miggy of course is one. Miggy is able to be effective as heck when injured or tweaked and JV hit the DL for the only time in his career last year. They are both fanatically professional all signs point to them both aging well.
The V-Mart signing was a mistake, but it will end soon, and still might swing (intended) in the Tigers favor.
The other aging contracts have a few years left, they don't really matter as long as there is young talent to replace it or money to replace it on the market. What matters is the answer to this question: Are Miggy and JV singular talents that will age well and be effective, as other greats have been, into their late 30s? If the answer is yes, then Buster's analysis is horseshit. If the answer is no, then the Tigers are in trouble.
For my money, based on watching JV his whole career and Miggy perform the last few years despite being hurt, I see two players that are still going to be capable of competing and contributing just as other HoF players have been able to do well into their late 30s and perhaps beyond.

If the Tigers didn't have some young talent coming up, perhaps Buster'd be right. And if the new GM weren't (A) protecting that talent and (B) setting out to make the farm system more productive we'd have reason to be concerned.

No, the Tigers are in a good space. Upton is for real, I know everyone is concentrating on that 2 year opt out, but I suspect he will perform and not take it, the guy is going to have success here and like it here. He along with JD is 28, if JD gets signed, that gives the Tigers two good, good core players to keep the wheels on the tracks as V-Mart and Kinsler are replaced and young talent developed etc.

No, the Tigers are built for the long haul, they just need to fix the farm system, and get better at finding young talent in unusual places.

There might be down years or Al Avila, his staff, and Mike Ilitch might be way smarter than some ESPN baseball reporter--something that is almost certainly true even if it is one of ESPN's best, Buster Olney.

"Mr. I is a desperate old man who wants a WS. The moves he is making are not in the best interest of the long term success of the franchise."

First, I think that first sentence is some really bigoted bs. Mike Ilitch is old, yes, but he sure as heck seems smart as a heck still. He is desperate for WS but hardly desperate in every way. A more accurate description is that he is a shrewd businessman and MLB owner who desperately wants to win a WS in his life time.
You can say some of his moves have been bad but his open check book which has brought a lot of talent to Detroit is part of that desperation to win it all.
Some of his moves have been bad: V-Mart was clearly from the fan in him and about loyalty. You can fault it but it builds something in the club house and in baseball about the club.
Signing Miggy and JV longterm was just good business. If you can't see that you don't have a clue about it. They sell tickets, pull in fans, raising not just revenue but franchise value. Two real-deal core stars is important and smart. As salaries increase their deals are going to actually start looking pretty good. (Barring bad luck.)
Prince was a mistake, as Chris Davis would've been, but Al Avila stopped that maybe DD wouldn't have.

wow...what a homer rant!

First, there is NO talent to replace any of the aging stars. As far as attendance, winning games brings the fans in...not stars.

As Tiger fans we should hope Upton rakes the next 2 years and opts out. If he performs to a level that he is comfortable with keeping the 6 year deal that means the Tigers are over paying him.

JD is another story. He wants a long term contract to stay with the Tigers. After signing Upton I don't know how feasible it would be to give it to him. They are already guaranteed to be over the luxury tax this year and next.

Yeah, it is a total screed. But I stand by Olney's lacking in qualifications.

Not direct replacement, but young new talent on the team that will be playing better or play well as the vets start to slip: Norris, Fulmer, Castellanos, JD, Iglesias, Gose, McCann.

We have these popular notions about things. But they often get exaggerated and they almost always are substitutes for good sound explanations for how and why things work.

EDIT:
The Philly situation did not have to go down the way it did. The are a sub $100mil team in a fairly major city, worth slightly more than the Tigers, but the Tigers salary is twice theirs. Why?
Cause the two teams are not really comparable in many, many significant ways.
These are just a few major ones:
The Tigers are increasing in value faster than the Phillies.
This is because the Tigers are an Ilitch holdings product and thus well marketed and PRed.
The Tigers are owned by one man who built a multi-billion dollar fortune from basically nothing, who has success with another sports franchise, and who played professional baseball as a young man.
The Phillies are owned by a handful of business men none of whom have Ilitch's deep pockets or baseball knowledge, nor anything like his success.
Geographically the Phillies have more competition for ratings and fans (if you look at a map, they are kind of surrounded).
Last but not least, the high priced talent the Phillies signed to longterm contracts was NOT as good as the GREAT talent the Tigers signed to long-term deals.

Basically, it is as simple as more talented players and a much MUCH better owner and better organization.

The Phillies' fate will not be the Tigers' -- aka Buster Olney doesn't know what the funk he is talking about.
The national media has a sort of agenda about this.
They have all sorts of biases that cloud their reasoning. For instance, the constant chorus of Miggy and JV as aging veterans the minute they turned 30. I never heard that sort of chatter before a few years ago. You never heard it about Jeter or even A-Rod Clemens, etc in their early 30s, not in the same way. There is an irreverence about how it is used against Miggy in particular. They way the ESPN crowd calls Miggy a slugger, even though that isn't what he is, the notion that he isn't good at fielding his position (utterly absurd).
This is where the ridiculous notion that Justin Verlander was done came from. The central media blather-mouths. It was utterly illogical and based in little more than wishful thinking and superstition.

To me the payroll situation isn't quite as dire as at first glance. First, Zimmerman for five years is pretty solid. You don't have the late 30's seasons that decrease heavily in value.

Miggy is likely to continue to be a productive guy late into his career. To keep a guy of his caliber you have to pay him. Bottom line.

With anything that even remotely comes close to vintage JV Verlander becomes a shoppable guy in about 2 seasons. A number 2 for a playoff contender with no long term commitment? If the Tigers tank he could be a guy that is capable to be moved.

Same goes for the Sanchez deal.

The V Mart deal was a head scratcher to me as it was too long a commitment for a guy with injury history. That one is just going to cost.

Kinsler's deal becomes extremely moveable as well after this season provided he maintains a respectable performance level.

Like we saw last year the Tigers were able to move high priced talent for respectable return. No reason to think that can't be the case with several of those guys.

jimmygank said:

To me the payroll situation isn't quite as dire as at first glance. First, Zimmerman for five years is pretty solid. You don't have the late 30's seasons that decrease heavily in value.

Miggy is likely to continue to be a productive guy late into his career. To keep a guy of his caliber you have to pay him. Bottom line.

With anything that even remotely comes close to vintage JV Verlander becomes a shoppable guy in about 2 seasons. A number 2 for a playoff contender with no long term commitment? If the Tigers tank he could be a guy that is capable to be moved.

Same goes for the Sanchez deal.

The V Mart deal was a head scratcher to me as it was too long a commitment for a guy with injury history. That one is just going to cost.

Kinsler's deal becomes extremely moveable as well after this season provided he maintains a respectable performance level.

Like we saw last year the Tigers were able to move high priced talent for respectable return. No reason to think that can't be the case with several of those guys.

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Not a chance with most of the guys mentioned, contracts to rich and deep considering age. Problem is, the older these guys get, the more they get hurt. Even if you could dump a Miggy contract, you are not going to get anything for him, same with VMart and JV.

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The thing about Miggy and his contract, making it more bearable, is his skill set. Generally as you get older the power numbers drop off but he is a high average guy who can take a walk. Maybe he won't be worth his money but I don't see him hitting sub .300 for a while.

This is all determined by him being healthy. Missed games, injured and still won another battle title. We have many more problems than Miggy. Bat JD behind him, Upton in front of him and I see a good 2-3-4.

jdeb said:

Not a chance with most of the guys mentioned, contracts to rich and deep considering age. Problem is, the older these guys get, the more they get hurt. Even if you could dump a Miggy contract, you are not going to get anything for him, same with VMart and JV.

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completely disagree. So you don't think JV could be moved at 28 million for 2 years to a team like the dodgers if he maintained a 3.3ish ERA? If sanchez can have an injury free season people wouldn't jump at him at his rate in his early 30's?

It's not like they are 38 years old.

Kinsler would be a respectable deal at 2 years 21 million considering the Royals are paying close to that for Infante. Again..provided he continues to perform. He is a top 7ish 2b as of last year. If he stayed in the top 10...yea I can see him being very moveable at that rate.

V Mart....yeah he isn't going anywhere.
Miggy....why would we even want to deal him? Dude is still a stud. But not get anything for him? Seriously? I get being a pessimist but players of Miggy's skill set are extremely rare.

Totally agree the Tigers are short on team controlled talent but if they strike out on the last ditch effort here they have some exit strategies provided the expensive talent doesn't completely fall apart.

Even though he didn't start his career here I'd be really bummed if Miggy didn't finish his career here. It would be great if he went into the HOF as a retired Detroit Tiger.

http://www.detroittigertales.com/2016/04/this-happens-to-justin-upton-every-year.html
This Happens To Justin Upton Every Year.
DetroitTigerTales

jimmygank said:

completely disagree. So you don't think JV could be moved at 28 million for 2 years to a team like the dodgers if he maintained a 3.3ish ERA? If sanchez can have an injury free season people wouldn't jump at him at his rate in his early 30's?

It's not like they are 38 years old.

Kinsler would be a respectable deal at 2 years 21 million considering the Royals are paying close to that for Infante. Again..provided he continues to perform. He is a top 7ish 2b as of last year. If he stayed in the top 10...yea I can see him being very moveable at that rate.

V Mart....yeah he isn't going anywhere.
Miggy....why would we even want to deal him? Dude is still a stud. But not get anything for him? Seriously? I get being a pessimist but players of Miggy's skill set are extremely rare.

Totally agree the Tigers are short on team controlled talent but if they strike out on the last ditch effort here they have some exit strategies provided the expensive talent doesn't completely fall apart.

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I agree on Kinsler. JV would have to be VERY consistent up to the trade deadline in order for anybody to risk that contract. If you could move Sanchez, it would be a salary dump move and not net any top prospects because of his injury history and declining numbers. I don't see any team picking up Miggy's contract. Declining numbers, increasing injuries, increasing weight and on the first year of an 8 year contract.

Now, if Zimmerman can pitch lights out for the first half, he could get you a good haul. Most people say that the Tigers signed him to a reasonable contract. An "ace" with a reasonable contract...someone might bite.