Rebbiv said:

A team needs both pitching and offense to win, but 70% of all wins over the last 20-30 years have come when your team scores 5 or more ,runs. There are a lot more 5-1, 6-1, 7-2 or 8-3 games, then there are 2-1 games or 3-2 games.

Click to expand...

tomdalton22 said:

70% of all wins come when a team scores 5 or more runs. You could attribute those runs scored to bad pitching by the other team just as easily as you could the offense. Look at Sanchez and Pelfrey. Together they have 32 starts and the opposing team scored 5 or more runs in 21 of those games. I think it has more to do with bad pitching vs. the offense producing. Almost any team will put up 5 or more runs vs bad pitching.

To your other point...it is kind of a chicken vs egg situation. Do teams score 5 or more because they have a good offense that day or is it because the opposing pitching?

Click to expand...

Rebbiv said:

So do win by limiting the opposition to under 5 runs or do you win by scoring 5 runs?


Every 5th day or so, you send out a different starter. Yet, most teams, send out the relatively same starting 8-9 positional players. What can you control more? Even when you have 5 Cy Young pitchers, the team that scores more runs still wins. Teams that score 5 runs or more more often, also tend to win more games when scoring 4 runs, 3 runs, 2 runs, etc.

I am not discounting pitching at all. But, run support is more important for a team's suggest.

Click to expand...

jimmygank said:

Would be an interesting study to see the typical record for a four and a five on a team versus the 1 through 3 but Detroit's top three account for a 32 and 16 win and loss record while pelfrey and Sanchez alone are twelve games under .500. Those two have really been terrible (especially Sanchez) considering Sanchez won his first two starts.

This team is scoring runs by in large...

Click to expand...

Rebbiv said:

There is no typical 4 or 5. Most teams use an average 10-11 starting pitchers during the course of a season. How do you determine what a #4 or #5 is?

Click to expand...

Rebbiv said:

There is no typical 4 or 5. Most teams use an average 10-11 starting pitchers during the course of a season. How do you determine what a #4 or #5 is? And relatively, if the AL averages 4.6 runs a game and your team averages just 3.9 runs for your "#5 starter", he could have a 4.00 ERA and still have a losing record. Hence why run support is key. Heck, your leader in wins could have the highest ERA of the starters given the run support.

Click to expand...

tomdalton22 said:

Any starting pitcher who isn't your 1-3

At this point in the year, for the Tigers, it's anyone not named Zimmerman, JV or Fulmer.

The Tiger's 4 & 5 pitchers would be of Pelfrey (18), Sanchez (14), Boyd, Green and Norris (total 12)

Click to expand...

jimmygank said:

The records I quoted are the total win/loss for the team.

Id say it's rather easy to determine the rotation order. I agree run support is key but I'd expect someone so bent on advanced stats to look further into pitcher productivity. It's rather clear for us to compete a move will have to be made in the rotation.

Click to expand...

Rebbiv said:

So who is the 1-3 on other teams? Most wins? Best ERA? Most starts? What is your criteria?

In 2014, where was Justin Verlander?

Click to expand...

tomdalton22 said:

not wins...best 3 statistical pitchers. In 2014 JV was the #4 once Price came aboard. JV sucked in2014

Click to expand...

Rebbiv said:

There are loads of statistics. Which one or ones?

Click to expand...