From what I have read, the Tigers plan to have Cespedes in Leftfield.
J.D. Martinez in Rightfield.
J.D. Martinez in Rightfield.
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Get StartedWhy don't you think Soria will be better than Joba?
He is 10x the pitcher Chamberlain ever was.
If we are comparing our opening day starters vs last year, I believe we have downgraded. The top 3 are a wash. Porcello/Smyly are a much better combo than Greene/Simon.
As far as the bullpen, Nathan is still our closer which is a big problem. Gorzalenny is a definite upgrade over Coke. I'm not counting on Hanrahan. If he contributes, it's a bonus. Soria won't be much better than Joba did last year. Rondon won't be 100% healthy. Al Al needs to step up and be a consistent guy. The bullpen still scares the crap out of me.
Overall, our staff is worse than last year. I have no confidence in Jones to improve the staff.
Career numbers
Gorzelanny
4.35 FIP, 4.27 ERA, 1.426 WHIP
Coke
3.71 FIP, 4.16 ERA, 1.423 WHIP
Soria
2.85 FIP, 2.58 ERA, 1.057 WHIP
Joba
3.75 FIP, 3.81 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Those numbers suggest to me that Gorzelanny is likely to be Phil Coke 2.0 and Soria should be a BIG improvement over Joba.
Last 3 years as reliever (60 IP Min)
A. Miller 2.32 xFIP 2.57 ERA 1.05 WHIP 77.7% LOB 2.42 WPA/LI
J. Grilli 2.92 xFIP 3.21 ERA 1.18 WHIP 77.5% LOB 0.92 WPA/LI
F. Rodney 2.96 xFIP 2.21 ERA 1.14 WHIP 79.0% LOB 2.98 WPA/LI
J. Soria 3.02 xFIP 3.44 ERA 1.12 WHIP 68.1% LOB 0.64 WPA/LI
D. Smyly 3.14 xFIP2.47 ERA 1.06 WHIP 79.2% LOB 1.61 WPA/LI
J. Benoit 3.17 xFIP 2.48 ERA 1.00 WHIP 84.7% LOB 3.66 WPA/LI
C. Furbush 3.17 xFIP 3.40 ERA 1.11 WHIP 70.1% LOB 1.72 WPA/LI
J. Nathan 3.31 xFIP 2.94 ERA1.15 WHIP 77.2% LOB 3.33 WPA/LI
A. Albuquerque 3.35 xFIP 3.16 ERA 1.29 WHIP 82.3% LOB 0.73 WPA/LI
O. Dotel 3.41 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.21 WHIP 64.6% LOB 0.81 WPA/LI
C. Fien 3.49 xFIP 3.54 ERA 1.07 WHIP 72.9% LOB 2.17 WPA/LI
B. Badenhop 3.53 xFIP 2.90 ERA 1.22 WHIP 74.1% LOB 1.37 WPA/LI
J. Veras 3.55 xFIP 3.64 ERA 1.32 WHIP 75.5% LOB 0.40 WPA/LI
J. Frasor 3.61 xFIP 3.09 ERA 1.27 WHIP 79.4% LOB 1.28 WPA/LI
J. Chamberlain 3.80 xFIP 4.15 ERA 1.48 WHIP 74.6% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Johnson 3.84 xFIP 3.93 ERA 1.37 WHIP 71.4% LOB 0.98 WPA/LI
P. Coke 3.94 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.61 WHIP 72.8% LOB -1.60 WPA/LI
A. Simon 4.08 xFIP 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 78.5% LOB 0.19 WPA/LI
T. Gorzelanny 4.11 xFIP 2.50 ERA 1.26 WHIP 83.6% LOB 0.48 WPA/LI
D. Downs 4.11 xFIP 5.76 ERA 1.33 WHIP 65.7% LOB 0.20 WPA/LI
B. Lyon 4.13 xFIP 3.78 ERA 1.38 WHIP 75.9% LOB -0.01 WPA/LI
K. Farnsworth 4.18 xFIP 4.40 ERA 1.45 WHIP 71.8% LOB -0.92 WPA/LI
J. Hanrahan 4.55 xFIP 3.49 ERA 1.37 WHIP 87.9% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Valverde 4.65 xFIP 4.46 ERA 1.32 WHIP 66.8% LOB -0.05 WPA/LI
**A. Wilson 4.34 xFIP 3.38 ERA 1.30 WHIP 72.4% LOB 0.07 WPA/LI
Aside from xFIP (or even FIP), Coke's relief numbers aren't even close to Gorzelanny's.
259 Pitchers with at least 60 IP in relief
Median xFIP = 3.72 xFIP
Median ERA = 3.36 ERA
Median WHIP = 1.25 WHIP
Median %LOB = 76.1% LOB
Medina WPA/LI = 0.54 WPA/LI
I was just pointing out that Gorzelanny is closer to Coke compared to Jaba vs. Soria. I agree that Gorzelanny should be better than Coke...but their career numbers are pretty similar.
You are looking at all of Gorzelanny's numbers and not just his relief numbers.
Career in Relief
Gorzlennay 2.88 ERA 1.24 WHIP .650 OPP OPS
P. Coke 3.97 ERA 1.40 WHIP .745 OPP OPS
They aren't close. Not even. You can say closer, but that is misleading.
Unfortunately SP going south is a bit more than a marginal increase on offense, defense and BP.
We'll definitely be better on defense, but lets not overstate it either, especially not Cespedes. His defense is average at best for everything but his arm, which is elite. His range is ok and hes not good at running routes, which his arm makes up for sometimes. He'll be above average overall.
Iggy should definitely be elite on defense. Nick should improve but still be below average. Miggy is a wild card with his foot issue. Kinsler will almost certainly take a step back defensively this year if only because he's a year older now but still should be average at worst. JDMart should be below average but not terrible. Gose should be very good, Davis should be ok, and Avila/McCann will be excellent.
Overall we'll probably be above average because of how strong we'll be up the middle, which will be a sizeable improvement from our norm of botton 5 in baseball.
Marginal increase in defense? Nah we got much better in the defensive department. Iggy and Cespedes are two of the top defensive players at their positions respectively.
And like many said our bullpen can only go up from last year, even if they become average thats a GIANT improvement.
Cespedes is barely above average. He's better defender than Hunter and as much as I think Ziggy is a defensive stud..it's a marginal increase on D. IMO. Losing Max is huge, losing Porcello and Smyly is pretty huge itself. The new new SP won't make up for that..
And as far as the BP, I heard that last year.
No. You sound like my brother-in-law who was arguing with me that losing Max would cost us 10 wins.
2013 Cleveland Indians SP - Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber, Zach McAllister
2013 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello.
Our rotation was far, far superior. But in the end the Indians went 92-70. 1 game back of Detroit.
2014 Kansas City Royals SP - James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza
2014 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly/David Price
Once again, we had a far superior rotation. The last 3 AL CY Young winners all on the same team at one point! Royals went 89-73. 1 game back.
Losing Max and Porcello don't hurt as much as you believe. As long as Greene and Simon (or someone who replaces him) are at least competent.
At least we get a compensation pick from the Nats for losing Max, unlike with Porcello/Cespedes.
No. You sound like my brother-in-law who was arguing with me that losing Max would cost us 10 wins.
2013 Cleveland Indians SP - Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber, Zach McAllister
2013 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello.
Our rotation was far, far superior. But in the end the Indians went 92-70. 1 game back of Detroit.
2014 Kansas City Royals SP - James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza
2014 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly/David Price
Once again, we had a far superior rotation. The last 3 AL CY Young winners all on the same team at one point! Royals went 89-73. 1 game back.
Losing Max and Porcello don't hurt as much as you believe. As long as Greene and Simon (or someone who replaces him) are at least competent.
At least we get a compensation pick from the Nats for losing Max, unlike with Porcello/Cespedes.
2014 Quality Starts
KCR 95 QS 61 Starter Wins (64.2%) 89 Total Wins
DET 90 QS 68 Starter Wins (75.6%) 90 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 57 Starter Wins (68.7%) 82 Total Wins
2013 Quality Starts
DET 108 QS 76 Starter Wins (70.4%) 93 Total Wins
CLE 73 QS 59 Starter Wins (80.8%) 92 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 56 Starter Wins (67.5%) 81 Total Wins
2012 Quality Starts
DET 90 QS 63 Starter Wins (70.0%) 88 Total Wins
CHW 86 QS 60 Starter Wins (69.8%) 85 Total Wins
AL AVG 81 QS 59 Starter Wins (72.8%) 82 Total Wins
Given average run support and average relief pitching, a team will win as many games as they have Quality Starts. More wins means better offense and/or relief pitching. Less wins generally means worse offense and/or relief pitching.
Without a big bounce back year from Verlander, I doubt DET comes close to 90 QS.
Top Three QS
2014 = Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello = 61 QS in 96 GS 63.5% 59 TWins (Price, Sanchez, Verlander = 35 QS in 64 GS 54.7% 37 TWins)
2013 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 69 QS in 98 GS 70.4% 57 TWins
2012 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 62 QS in 91 QS 68.1% 55 TWins
At last 3 years rate, Verlander+Price+Sanchez = 61 QS 91 GS 67.0% 50 TWins
You have to go back to 2011 to see a season where Sanchez had 32 or more games started in a season. He has averaged 27 GS over the last 3 years.
Average Games Started Last 3 years:
Verlander 33.0 GS 21.7 QS 65.8% 18.0 TWins
Scherzer 32.3 GS 22.3 QS 69.0% 23.3 TWins
Price 30.7 GS 22.3 QS 72.8% 18.3 TWins
Porcello 30.3 GS 17.3 QS 57.1% 16.3 TWins
Fister 27.7 GS 19.0 QS 68.7% 16.3 TWins
Sanchez 27.0 GS 17.3 QS 64.2% 14.0 TWins
I will also point out how many were stoked for our defense prior to the start of 2014. We were supposed to be vastly improved with Miggy at 1B over Fielder, Castellanos at 3B or Miggy and having Iggy + Kinsler up the middle. What happened? How well did that work out?
Team UZR/150
2014 DET = 28th -6.9 (29th OF -9.8)
2013 DET = 21st -3.1 (17th OF -1.1)
2012 DET = 27th -4.9 (29th OF -7.3)
2011 DET = 15th 0.2 (17th OF -0.6)
2010 DET = 6th 4.0 (7th OF 5.7)
2009 DET = 6th 4.6 (15th OF 0.2)
2008 DET = 29th -9.3 (28th OF -9.2)
2007 DET = 5th 4.8 (6th OF 6.6)
2006 DET = 4th 6.3 (17th OF -0.7)
So goes the Outfield defense, so goes DET's Team defense. On paper, is the 2015 DET OF defense better than 2014? Absolutely, you couldn't get much worse. Aside from putting a Brennan Boesch or Delmon Young in the OF, just about anyone would have been an upgrade.
How much better? Well that is debatable. I put it at only 2 wins, with a hit of about 2 wins on offense. Yet, the improved OF defense should help the pitching.
As far as Cespedes in LF. Think Ryan Raburn with a cannon. He is going to make a lot of plays look interesting. And if Davis is in CF, don't expect him to help cover for any mistakes.
Good stuff as usual. The only thing that I don't fully buy is the defense. Nick was worse than he was expected to be...he can only be better (HOPEFULLY). The rotating door at SS was bad so that should be a huge improvement. I don't think anybody thought Hunter would have regressed as badly as he did. Although Jackson was better than those who replace him he was also worse than he was in 2013. Also, you yourself said that URZ/150 stats are very volatile.
I am very optimistic about the defense this year. I hope that they platoon Gose or bring him in to pinch run / defense replacement late. I expect an improvement for Nick, a huge improvement at SS and a nice improvement from Hunter to Cespedes. All of those things probably won't happen...but I am hopeful.
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