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Tigers vs. orioles ALDS Game 3 October 5

Fielder is Ryan Howard 2.0 in the making.

Kinsler is going to give the Tigers a much better value in the long run, he's not 1 dimensional like Fielder.
 
While I do mostly like Kinsler, I think he'll end up being better value in a trade. I think his 5.5 fWAR season will get someone to bite on his contract and we can get a CF back (and more) in return, if not this year, then next year (unless he blows next year.) Devon Travis isn't far off, probably 2016.

My big idea is trading Kinsler and Sanchez for a huge haul, like the Grandy trade. Get younger, cheaper, and reload, make sure that the window doesnt close for good (or remains open, depending what kind of talent we get back.)
 
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Fielder is Ryan Howard 2.0 in the making.

Kinsler is going to give the Tigers a much better value in the long run, he's not 1 dimensional like Fielder.

Kinsler shouldn't be batting at the top of the line up. It is hard to get a rally going with a lead off man that walked 29 times in 736 plate appearances.

If DD can move him for something decent, I would be all for it. Then part 2 (which never seems to happen) invest that money saved into a better lead off man.
 
The problem is that this team doesnt value OBP at all, even at the top of the lineup where they should. Its frustrating.
 
Kinsler shouldn't be batting at the top of the line up. It is hard to get a rally going with a lead off man that walked 29 times in 736 plate appearances.

If DD can move him for something decent, I would be all for it. Then part 2 (which never seems to happen) invest that money saved into a better lead off man.

I agree. the reality is he was probably the best option to leadoff, that's how bad the situation is. If Kinsler's BB rate didn't plummet and he drew BB like in Texas he would have been a solid leadoff man, which leads more to the theory that the Tigers have an organizational philosophy of free swinging.
 
I agree. the reality is he was probably the best option to leadoff, that's how bad the situation is. If Kinsler's BB rate didn't plummet and he drew BB like in Texas he would have been a solid leadoff man, which leads more to the theory that the Tigers have an organizational philosophy of free swinging.

They really do, same thing happened to Hunter when he came here from LA, his walk rate got cut in half (which shows its not just Ausmus either, its organizational.)
 
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Huh???? We were easily the AL leader in OBP this year.
Driven largely by BA, ours was tops in the majors (2nd in OBP behind the Dodgers.) Our walk rate was only 20th, and even that was largely driven by Avila (13.3%), VMart (10.9%), and Miggy (8.8%, far below his career rate of 11%.) Aside from those 3, only AJax (now gone) and Suarez (not going to start next year) had walk rates higher than 6.6%. The top 2 hitters in our lineup most nights had walk rates of 4% (Kinsler) and 3.9% (Hunter.) Say what you will about OBP and walk rates (I admittedly value them a lot more than others do), theres no question we need better OBP from the top of our lineup next year.

For reference: league average this year was 7.4% (or 7.9% if you include IBBs.)
 
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Driven largely by BA, ours was tops in the majors (2nd in OBP behind the Dodgers.) Our walk rate was only 20th, and even that was largely driven by Avila (13.3%), VMart (10.9%), and Miggy (8.8%, far below his career rate of 11%.) Aside from those 3, only AJax (now gone) and Suarez (not going to start next year) had walk rates higher than 6.6%. The top 2 hitters in our lineup most nights had walk rates of 4% (Kinsler) and 3.9% (Hunter.) Say what you will about OBP and walk rates, theres no question we need better OBP from the top of our lineup next year.


Agree that I'd like to see out top 2 spots do a better job getting on base. Had far too many times where Miggy either led off an inning or batted with the bases empty.

As far as the OBP in regards to walks. Some of you guys seem to put more weight in getting on base via a walk vs getting a hit. I just don't get that.
 
Agree that I'd like to see out top 2 spots do a better job getting on base. Had far too many times where Miggy either led off an inning or batted with the bases empty.

As far as the OBP in regards to walks. Some of you guys seem to put more weight in getting on base via a walk vs getting a hit. I just don't get that.

I don't necessarily want less hits, just more walks. Theres players that do both well, and on the whole, I prefer players that can still have a high OBP but low BAVG to players with a high BA but low walk rate, which generally results in a lower OBP than the guy who gets less hits but walks more. Id much rather have the guy that does both well though.

For instance: Hunter outhit Matt Carpenter this year .286 to .272. Just on the basis of that, you'd say you'd want Hunter to lead off (or hit 2nd.) But since Carpenter walked so damn much, his OBP was .375, 56 points higher than Hunter's .319, and Carpenter is by far the better option at the top of the lineup. Hell, Carlos Santana only hit .231 this year and still ended up with a .792 OPS because his OBP (and SLG) were so high.
 
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Agree that I'd like to see out top 2 spots do a better job getting on base. Had far too many times where Miggy either led off an inning or batted with the bases empty.

As far as the OBP in regards to walks. Some of you guys seem to put more weight in getting on base via a walk vs getting a hit. I just don't get that.

For a leadoff man walking is better than getting a hit. It makes the pitcher work and forces the pitcher to use more of his pitches early on.

Back in 1962 getting hits was probably better than walking because bean counters were not watching the pitch count on the starting pitcher. Now a days a few walks is the difference between seeing Phil Coke in the 6th or 7th rather than seeing Max Scherzer. That is a big deal.
 
Agree that I'd like to see out top 2 spots do a better job getting on base. Had far too many times where Miggy either led off an inning or batted with the bases empty.

As far as the OBP in regards to walks. Some of you guys seem to put more weight in getting on base via a walk vs getting a hit. I just don't get that.

Hits = eye/hand coordination

Walks = plate discipline and strike zone awareness

As a general rule, players with high walk rates generally are swinging at pitches within the zone. Unlike players without. When you expand the strike zone, you are swinging at the pitcher's pitch. Even if you make contact, sometimes it leads to week pop ups or week ground balls.

It also means you are making the opposing pitcher to work. And that adds to pitch counts.

I am not saying those events (week balls in play) cannot happen to good plate discipline hitters, just they happen less often.

Hand/eye coordination deals with being able to square the bat on the ball. A foul straight back means the player was dead on the pitch, just a tad low it goes high. A tad high, it is fouled into the dirt.

Now, it isn't that we are choosing a walk over a hit. Not in the slightest. It is wishing we had players that didn't swing at every pitch thrown.

After the AS break

Avila .201 BAVG .304 OBP

Kinsler .239 BAVG .270 OBP

Avila strikes out a ton, but his percentage of getting on base was higher than Kinsler's this year, since the AS break and 3 out of the last 4 years.

Last 3 years versus RHP

Avila .244 BAVG .351 OBP .410 SLG .761 OPS 7.3 PA/BB 53.5 PA/GIDP .321 BABIP

Kinsler .254 BAVG .308 OBP .399 SLG .707 OPS 16.0 PA/BB 54.8 PA/GIDP .267 BABIP

Considering a team faces a righthanded pitcher 70-75% of the time, and despite his strikeouts, Avila is the better hitter, except in BAVG against RHP. Yet, if you bring BABIP into the equation. It shows that higher percentage of balls that Avila hits into play go for hits. Meaning, they aren't the week popups or week grounders. The AL average BABIP is .296.

Last 3 years verus LHP

Kinsler .311 BAVG .371 OBP .475 SLG .847 OPS 12.5 PA/BB 48.9 PA/GIDP .324 BABIP

Avila .185 BAVG .275 OBP .259 SLG .534 OPS 9.9 PA/BB 30.7 PA/GIDP .287 BABIP

Certainly, Kinsler is the better hitter in this case. However, his walk rate still isn't all that great (slightly better than average) and his BABIP is close to his BAVG (Average is about 30 points higher). He actually grounds into a slightly higher rate of double plays against LHP.

Each stat can show you something. Yes, there are biases in stats. Yes, not all stats are be all end all stats. But they can be informative and shed light on certain things. Walks and/or walk rates can shed a lot of light on what happened and can be predictive of the future.

Kinsler Pre AS Break = 21.1 PA/BB

Kinsler Post AS Break = 30.4 PA/BB

His Pre AS Break walk rate was already below his norm. His post AS was beyond bad. No amount of defense will make up for that. We will see next year, but if the trend continues we will know it is from the organizational change.
 
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I'm a thinking that most pitching coach tell there pitchers that strike 3 better happen before ball 3 to Kinsler & Hunter with Cabrera batting 3rd & V-Mart 4th! Me thinks that has something to do with Kinsler & Hunter's drop in walk rate, here in Detroit.
 
I'm a thinking that most pitching coach tell there pitchers that strike 3 better happen before ball 3 to Kinsler & Hunter with Cabrera batting 3rd & V-Mart 4th! Me thinks that has something to do with Kinsler & Hunter's drop in walk rate, here in Detroit.


The numbers do not back up that statement.

Kinsler's Percentage of pitches swung at

2011 = 37.8%
2012 = 43.1%
2013 = 40.6%

2014 = 47.6%

Kinsler's First Pitch Swinging

2011 = 17.1%
2012 = 18.5%
2013 = 13.7%

2014 = 25.3%

Kinsler's Percentage of Pitches Swung At Outside the Strike Zone

2011 = 20.0%
2012 = 24.4%
2013 = 23.9%

2014 = 31.0%


And basically, Hunter's numbers are the same, just not as dramatically different.

Hunter's Percentage of pitches swung at

2010 = 45.5%
2011 = 45.8%
2012 = 50.8%

2013 = 55.4%
2014 = 53.6%

Hunter's First Pitch Swinging

2010 = 22.4%
2011 = 25.8%
2012 = 31.6%

2013 = 30.8%
2014 = 32.5%

Hunter's Percentage of Pitches Swung At Outside the Strike Zone

2010 = 27.4%
2011 = 30.0%
2012 = 35.4%

2013 = 42.2%
2014 = 36.0%


The pitcher's did not force them to swing at pitches outside the zone.
 
Resetting the Train Wreck at second base with Don ""Super Sub" Kelly. You need to make decisions before they happen. Like freezing on balls hit in front of you until they clear the IF ... 10-year-old LL mistake.

But there was clearly obstruction. A fielder cannot block a base without the ball. End of discussion. Even for a tenth of a second. And Dartmouth here failed miserably in making that case.

A comment on the rule from the rule book: If a fielder is about to receive a thrown ball and if the ball is in flight directly toward and near enough to the fielder so he must occupy his position to receive the ball he may be considered “in the act of fielding a ball.” It is entirely up to the judgment of the umpire as to whether a fielder is in the act of fielding a ball. After a fielder has made an attempt to field a ball and missed, he can no longer be in the “act of fielding” the ball.

An MLB manager HAS to know ALL the rules of the game. Mandatory. And so few do. He made mention of "it was not intentional" OBSTRUCTION DOES NOT HAVE TO BE INTENTIONAL! And this is a case study of obstruction defined. It should be shown in umpire school on WHAT OBSTRUCTION IS. And Dartmouth says "it's not reviewable," but it could have been discussed and deliberated by the crew. Dartmouth failed in making a stronger case because he himself does not know the rule. This was a case where Dartmouth was justified in initiating a protest, based on the rule.
 
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I wanna make this clear too: I don't hate Kinsler. I think he costs too much and he should be a mid-bottom order hitter (NOT LEADOFF, BRAD), but he has a lot of value on defense and 2B is another position where offense isnt required as long as you play really good defense. I also prefer him to Fielder.


This was my opinion from the start. Kinsler is just overpaid, and in terms of Kinsler/Fielder trade, I don't like the return.

Now in hindsight it's easy to say that Fielder missed almost all of 2014, but still with the money that Kinsler costs (figuring in the amount we kicked in to Texas) I think we should have gotten someone else, maybe a bullpen arm.
 
This was my opinion from the start. Kinsler is just overpaid, and in terms of Kinsler/Fielder trade, I don't like the return.

Now in hindsight it's easy to say that Fielder missed almost all of 2014, but still with the money that Kinsler costs (figuring in the amount we kicked in to Texas) I think we should have gotten someone else, maybe a bullpen arm.


Exactly. I have stated this multiple times.
 
Three Tigers leadoff men stick in my mind through the years. Probably a few more you guys can come up with. Having a leadoff hitter in the mold of;

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yosted01.shtml
'The Walking Man' Eddie Yost. In 1959-1960 his two years as a Tiger, he led the league in both Walks And OBP. 6 times AL leader in walks.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillto02.shtml
Tony Phillips had a .395 OBP in his 5 years with the Tigers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitalo01.shtml
and of course Lou Whitaker who had a lower yet very good career OBP of .363 with the Tigers and a much better hitter than the other two stated here.

A player leading off for the Tigers in the mold of these three would have led the league in runs scored at least once if not twice the past 3/4 years.
 
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