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Offseason Deals and Rumors

Not only is this a terrible idea, but JV has a full no-trade clause so it will never happen. I expect JV to be healthy and effective next year, and likely for the next several years at least. I dont trust max's delivery either for long term success or health, its far too violent. always has been. its a minor miracle he's stayed healthy this long.


Someone is going to give Max $200 million, and it wont be us, nor should it be. We need to avoid giving ANYONE another megacontract, which is why Price will be gone after next year too.

I've just watched the Tigers for too long to think that it is smart to let talent go for nothing in return other than a compensation pick. This is a make or break offseason. If DD lets Max and Victor go for nothing, Cabrera is going to retire without a ring. Edit: with the Tigers
 
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I've just watched the Tigers for too long to think that it is smart to let talent go for nothing in return other than a compensation pick. This is a make or break offseason. If DD lets Max and Victor go for nothing, Cabrera is going to retire without a ring. Edit: with the Tigers

We definitely need to resign Victor, but letting someone else sign Max to a megacontract while getting a draft pick in return is by far the best move for us in regards to him.
 
Now that would be a dumb move. Sounds about right though.
If he went, it wouldnt be by himself (I would see him being packaged with Kinsler to someone in a megadeal), and we would need to get an MLB-ready pitcher back in the deal.

Sanchez is the only one that makes sense to me to trade if we do trade a starter. Porcello could go too, but I doubt it.
 
Does not matter why JV was pulled. He was pulled. 101 pitches and Dartmouth got him ... according to Dartmouth, JV told him he was "tiring" after the 5th inning.

He gave up a lousy 3 runs, we had the lead. Price lost his game anyway..or didn't you notice. JV was not the problem.
 
They are both still pretty young. I'm not gonna give up on them yet.

Remember, you also weren't expecting JD to be anything much. Brad Eldred was your comparison for him early this year.


Yes, from their minor league numbers up to age 23-24, Eldred and Martinez numbers do compare. And Martinez hadn't done anything at the ML level that would suggest otherwise. So that comparison was wrong at the time it was made?

At 19.0 PA/BB and .389 BABIP, J.D.'s 2014 is probably not repeatable. It doesn't mean he cannot have another good year or two, just not in the ilk of this one.

Player's have career/fluke season all the time. I want to see repeated success before I jump off the cliff. Baseball history isn't on J.D. Martinez' side.

And that isn't necessarily being pessimistic or anti-J.D. It is just being a realist.

Now I did a Robbie Ray comparison to Wil Ledezma and Oliver Perez. What is that actual comparison? Is it being a lefthanded starter? Is it someone who has high walk rates? It is a starter that has difficulty going 6 innings?

Robbie Ray

2014 = 5.0 IP/GS 3.9 BB/G
2023 = 5.3 IP/GS 3.9 BB/G
2012 = 4.8 IP/GS 4.4 BB/G

As a comparison, Drew Smyly

2011 = 6.0 IP/GS 2.6 BB/G

And some have compared Avisail Garcia to Miguel Cabrera. Based on their minor league numbers? Nope. Based on what they see.
 
He gave up a lousy 3 runs, we had the lead. Price lost his game anyway..or didn't you notice. JV was not the problem.

Three earned runs in five innings is not impressive. Tigers needed seven out of Verlander and he didn't have the gas. That's what $28,000,000 buys? JV was not the entire problem, but he was a contributor.

Price received no run support and went 8 innings and gave up a Popsicle to Cruz.
 
I would think at minimum the Tigers are going to need a CF, corner OF, 1 SP and 3 relief pitchers. They NEED to address the bench as well. They might even need a DH and a catcher. SS may be another need if Iggy can't return. This team is a mess!
 
100% speculation on my part, but I could see all this happening...

We sign VMart to a 3-4yr deal to end his career as a Tiger.

Max is willing to take a 3-4yr deal with us for big money (say $100mil), banking on the idea that he'll get one more major deal in his mid-30s when the market has further appreciated. He's given a lot of indications that he's willing to gamble on himself and the market, so I don't think this is a crazy idea.

Torii will offer himself up for a reasonable 1yr deal, which we'll take. This may give Hill and others time to develop.

We look at flipping Sanchez / Castellanos / Kinsler in a mega deal. Likely for a CF and/or 3B.

We sign Miller, Uehara, or some other proven BP guy, Soria gets healthy and dominates, Sloppy Joe contributes better than this year, and we get Rondon back and throwing 100mph gas out of the pen.

We sign Price to a long-term extension, or flip him for a big return when we realize that we can't/won't.

We use McCann in a 50/50 platoon with Avila, and Avila retires in the next year or two after he gets more concussions.

Iggy is back to man SS, and we flip two of Suarez / Perez /Dirks in a larger deal or to get a good BP piece.

J.D. comes back to Earth a bit, but he's still a .280 hitter with 90RBI and 25HR power. He'll take one corner OF spot for the next few years.

JV comes back healthier and with more velocity. Probably not going to be our #1 again, but he'll be more like a his career numbers with a 3.50ERA, 225IP, 1.2 WHIP, 200Ks, and 17 wins.

Miggy and VMart basically swap stats from this year, but Miggy will hit 40HR.

Davis becomes an important bench player for us. He plays regularly as a late inning pinch runner and corner OF. We may look to find another speedy guy for the bench too after seeing how the Royals are doing it.
 
100% speculation on my part, but I could see all this happening...

We sign VMart to a 3-4yr deal to end his career as a Tiger.

Max is willing to take a 3-4yr deal with us for big money (say $100mil), banking on the idea that he'll get one more major deal in his mid-30s when the market has further appreciated. He's given a lot of indications that he's willing to gamble on himself and the market, so I don't think this is a crazy idea.

Torii will offer himself up for a reasonable 1yr deal, which we'll take. This may give Hill and others time to develop.

We look at flipping Sanchez / Castellanos / Kinsler in a mega deal. Likely for a CF and/or 3B.

We sign Miller, Uehara, or some other proven BP guy, Soria gets healthy and dominates, Sloppy Joe contributes better than this year, and we get Rondon back and throwing 100mph gas out of the pen.

We sign Price to a long-term extension, or flip him for a big return when we realize that we can't/won't.

We use McCann in a 50/50 platoon with Avila, and Avila retires in the next year or two after he gets more concussions.

Iggy is back to man SS, and we flip two of Suarez / Perez /Dirks in a larger deal or to get a good BP piece.

J.D. comes back to Earth a bit, but he's still a .280 hitter with 90RBI and 25HR power. He'll take one corner OF spot for the next few years.

JV comes back healthier and with more velocity. Probably not going to be our #1 again, but he'll be more like a his career numbers with a 3.50ERA, 225IP, 1.2 WHIP, 200Ks, and 17 wins.

Miggy and VMart basically swap stats from this year, but Miggy will hit 40HR.

Davis becomes an important bench player for us. He plays regularly as a late inning pinch runner and corner OF. We may look to find another speedy guy for the bench too after seeing how the Royals are doing it.

It's kind of early to be drinking....don't you think?
 
It's never too early. :)

What did I say that was way off base though?

lol...I hear ya!

Here are my rough estimated chances at your thoughts.

We sign VMart to a 3-4yr deal to end his career as a Tiger. (10%)

Max is willing to take a 3-4yr deal with us for big money (say $100mil), banking on the idea that he'll get one more major deal in his mid-30s when the market has further appreciated. He's given a lot of indications that he's willing to gamble on himself and the market, so I don't think this is a crazy idea. (0.001%)

Torii will offer himself up for a reasonable 1yr deal, which we'll take. This may give Hill and others time to develop. (5% I hope it is 0%)

We look at flipping Sanchez / Castellanos / Kinsler in a mega deal. Likely for a CF and/or 3B. (1% but I hope it is 90%)

We sign Miller, Uehara, or some other proven BP guy, Soria gets healthy and dominates, Sloppy Joe contributes better than this year, and we get Rondon back and throwing 100mph gas out of the pen. (5%)

We sign Price to a long-term extension, or flip him for a big return when we realize that we can't/won't. (0.1% to long term extension, 5% chance to flip him)

We use McCann in a 50/50 platoon with Avila, and Avila retires in the next year or two after he gets more concussions. (75%)

Iggy is back to man SS, and we flip two of Suarez / Perez /Dirks in a larger deal or to get a good BP piece. (50% that Iggy ever becomes a full time SS, 5% chance that you get any quality in return for those scrubs)

J.D. comes back to Earth a bit, but he's still a .280 hitter with 90RBI and 25HR power. He'll take one corner OF spot for the next few years. (90%)

JV comes back healthier and with more velocity. Probably not going to be our #1 again, but he'll be more like a his career numbers with a 3.50ERA, 225IP, 1.2 WHIP, 200Ks, and 17 wins. (10%, 90% odds that he doesn't have another season with an ERA under 4.0, never K's 200 again and his WHIP will never be below 1.3 again)

Miggy and VMart basically swap stats from this year, but Miggy will hit 40HR. (50% chance. Miggy might come back up a bit but I think V-Mart just had one of those fluke years. Doubt he hits over 25 HRs in a season again unless he goes to a hitter freindly park)

Davis becomes an important bench player for us. He plays regularly as a late inning pinch runner and corner OF. We may look to find another speedy guy for the bench too after seeing how the Royals are doing it. (30%...I think he is a starter next year. I hope this is 100%)
 
Davis was admirable this year given how terrible he usually is against RHP. I really liked the idea of a platoon with him and Dirks, it seemed like we could get good production out of that spot without much financial investment.
 
100% speculation on my part, but I could see all this happening...

We sign VMart to a 3-4yr deal to end his career as a Tiger. 3 years will probably be our limit, I dunno if we'll give him 4 except maybe as an option year. I think we'll go all-out to sign him because we have no replacement for him, unless we signed Lind and Willingham to platoon at DH or something. I want no part of Cruz.

Max is willing to take a 3-4yr deal with us for big money (say $100mil), banking on the idea that he'll get one more major deal in his mid-30s when the market has further appreciated. He's given a lot of indications that he's willing to gamble on himself and the market, so I don't think this is a crazy idea. Zero chance this happens, not with Boras as his agent. Plus we really, REALLY don't need to be spending $25 mil/yr on another player, even Max

Torii will offer himself up for a reasonable 1yr deal, which we'll take. This may give Hill and others time to develop. I absolutely hope not. Hunter was abysmal this year, especially on defense. Its time to say goodbye to him.

We look at flipping Sanchez / Castellanos / Kinsler in a mega deal. Likely for a CF and/or 3B. I didn't think of flipping Casty, but given his struggles this year, especially on defense, if we got a replacement 3B I don't think I'd mind.

We sign Miller, Uehara, or some other proven BP guy, Soria gets healthy and dominates, Sloppy Joe contributes better than this year, and we get Rondon back and throwing 100mph gas out of the pen. This seems likely, though I doubt we'll sign Uehara. Probably Miller and a few smaller pieces, which should be fine as long as DD goes after the right pieces.

We sign Price to a long-term extension, or flip him for a big return when we realize that we can't/won't. I doubt we'll do either, tbh. We'll likely use him next year to stay competitive, then let him walk for a draft pick a la Max this year. Just like Max, we just can't afford to give another megacontract to a pitcher, and the only way I see us trading Price is if we're 100% out of it by the trade deadline.

We use McCann in a 50/50 platoon with Avila, and Avila retires in the next year or two after he gets more concussions. Sounds about right, though Avila would probably get more playing time since we face more RHP than LHP.

Iggy is back to man SS, and we flip two of Suarez / Perez /Dirks in a larger deal or to get a good BP piece. I envision a MIF going in a trade for a CF, but if we trade position players for relievers again (or trade for relievers as more than just add-ons to a deal), I'm going to flip a shit.

J.D. comes back to Earth a bit, but he's still a .280 hitter with 90RBI and 25HR power. He'll take one corner OF spot for the next few years. maybe a bit less on the BA, but that seems right. Hopefully he'll take a few more walks, but then again its the Tigers.

JV comes back healthier and with more velocity. Probably not going to be our #1 again, but he'll be more like a his career numbers with a 3.50ERA, 225IP, 1.2 WHIP, 200Ks, and 17 wins. Almost certain. He and the Tigers will never admit it, but he never hit 100% this year because of the offseason surgery and the issues from when he tried to adjust because of it.

Miggy and VMart basically swap stats from this year, but Miggy will hit 40HR. With Miggy hopefully being 100% healthy next year, hopefully this is all but certain.

Davis becomes an important bench player for us. He plays regularly as a late inning pinch runner and corner OF. We may look to find another speedy guy for the bench too after seeing how the Royals are doing it. Given this is how we should have been using him this year, hopefully this is right. He should never see RHP though, and I'd rather have a bench bat than more bench speed. We had Carrera for more bench speed, but since he's completely useless otherwise, its a wasted spot, whereas the Orioles had Delmon off the bench to steal game 2 from us (not that I want delmon again.)

Not bad.
 
No way Scherzer signed a short deal knowing he'll get a major deal in his 30's..he'll get a major deal now..too much risk waiting..plus he turned down 144, why would he accept 100?
 
Davis was admirable this year given how terrible he usually is against RHP. I really liked the idea of a platoon with him and Dirks, it seemed like we could get good production out of that spot without much financial investment.

not much went as planned for the Tigers this season!

The best BP addition was Joba only because he had a good first 1/2...overall he was below average and Terrible towards the end of the season.

Nathan was terrible period.

Soria was bad too.

Verlander was terrible.

Sanchez wasn't much of a help since he only pitched 126 innings

Nick, Torii, Rajai and Miggy were all liabilities defensively. Kinsler and Avila were the only plus defenders on the team.

I would have to say the only bright spots for the Tigers this season were the Martinez boys!
 
You and I clearly disagree, Tom.

I'd put the odds very high with Victor. Say 75% or more. He wants to be here, he's expressed that he wants to retire before 40, we love him and have a spot for him... seems like it should be an easy thing to get done.

With Max, it's a crap shoot. I'd say maybe 40% chance. He's said he wants to be here, but he also turned down a good deal already. He's a numbers guy, and he's shown that he's willing to wager on himself (like turning down the deal from us and backing it up w/ an insurance policy). I think he'd stay here if we could offer him $25-30mil/yr for 3-4yrs. I could see that being somehow more appealing to him than taking 7-8yrs for $150-200mil elsewhere, since he's gotta believe that the market will continue to rise with TV deals, etc. as it has year after year.

With Torii, I think we'll want him back and I think he wants to be back. I don't get the sense that he'll ask for much or that he'll want to change teams. We don't seem to have any better options for next year as things currently sit. I'd say there is a 65% chance that he's back on a 1yr deal.

A trade of some or all of Kinsler / Castellanos / Sanchez probably has a 15% chance of happening. If that package could land us a truly coveted guy (Stanton?), I could see DD pulling the trigger. He's a master of big trades in the winter, so I wouldn't put it past him to try. It takes two to dance, and the right combo of names though.

I'd put the bullpen stuff at 80% likely. No reason to believe Soria won't be very good as he's always been. Rondon should be back and healthy, which should mean 100mph heat from him. Sloppy Joe can't be worse, can he? I think we'll sign a proven guy (maybe not Miller or Uehara, but still something better than scraps).

We're going to have to extend or trade Price, so I'd put it at 95% that one of the two happens ahead of simply letting him walk. If Max doesn't sign, I'd put the chance of an extension greater than 75%. If he does sign, I'd put the chance of an extension at 50% and a trade at 50%.

I'm actually going to put the Avila and McCann stuff lower than it should be. I'll say 60%. It makes too much sense to do, so we'll probably do something worse instead.

I'd put odds at 90% that Iggy is the starting SS for us next season. He should be healthy, a great defender, and a fairly weak offensive guy. Romine isn't as good on O or D, and while Suarez might be better on O, his D is far behind.

We agree on J.D. I think he'll regress some, but not to dud status.

I may be a homer here, but I'm not betting against JV. I don't think he was healthy this year, and I think he's generally been over used. I think he'll come in healthier with improved core and leg strength, and that we'll give him a bit lighter workload (more like 110 pitches instead of 130 pitches). I'd put it at 80% that we do that and that his numbers get back toward career averages.

Victor may well have had a fluke year, but I still think he'll be north of .300 and 20HRs next year. Probably near Miggy's '14 numbers of .313 and 25. Miggy's average should be higher with better health. I'm saying .325+ and 35HR+, which are Victor's '14 numbers. As we've seen with Maggs, Torii, Sheff, and a few others, smart older hitters seem to do quite well in Comerica. I think that will carry through with Victor. I'd put this at 80% likelihood.

On the Davis idea. A lot depends on Torii. If Torii and J.D. are our corner OF guys, Davis has 30% chance of starting in CF. If Torii doesn't resign, Davis probably has a 75% chance of starting in the OF. I don't think they'd prefer him starting if it can be avoided though.
 
No way Scherzer signed a short deal knowing he'll get a major deal in his 30's..he'll get a major deal now..too much risk waiting..plus he turned down 144, why would he accept 100?

He turned down $144mil over 6yrs (or was it 7yrs?). Again, pure speculation here, but I could see him gambling on himself to stay an elite pitcher for 3-4 more years. Basically, it'd be a choice to take $90-$100mil now, then possibly the same/more in another 3-4yrs at age 35, or to take $150mil-$200mil now for the same total time period. If someone offers $200mil now, you take it because there's probably little to no upside beyond that. However, if the market only supports $150mil, he could very well roll the dice by betting on himself and take the shorter deal with the chance to get even more down the line.

A lot of the writers are already speculating that it may have been a mistake to turn down the $144mil we offered since he'll be out there with fairly comparable guys like Lester and Shields, that most big money clubs already have their ace, there could be other big names available via trade, and the supply of offense is lacking and due to be in demand.

From MLBTR a few days ago...

Soon-to-be free agent Max Scherzer of the Tigers reportedly passed on the chance to ink a six-year, $144MM extension with the Tigers, and that decision could hurt him in spite of his strong performance, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The current market features top-end trade options, plenty of mid-tier free agents, and a generally depressed offensive environment, Sherman notes.
 
My guess is somebody gives Max 6 years and $160M

I'm sure many teams would love to give him a similar deal, but I'm not sure he'd take that. It's a $26.6mil average annual value, which is comparable to Verlander, Sabathia, Felix, Kershaw, etc. who all are in the $22mil-$30mil/yr average annual value, I believe. The problem with such a deal is that it would result in him being a free agent again at 37 y/o. He'd likely prefer a shorter 3-4yr deal or a longer 7-8yr deal. A longer deal would probably come with a lower average annual value closer to $20-$22mil. So, the market is probably in the 7yrs @ $140mil to 8yrs @ $176mil range.

Teams love to minimize risk, and they've already seen the long contracts turning ugly. So, I could see a team offering him $30mil/yr for 3-4 yrs ($90-$120mil total). I'd guess that market value for his current level of performance would be worth more by the end of the deal... maybe something like $35mil/yr. So, if he could maintain a similar performance level for 3-4yrs, he could be in line to sign another $90-$140mil deal at age 34 or 35. That could mean that he'd get somewhere between 6yrs @ $180mil and 8yrs @ $260mil spread across two contracts if everything worked out. Obviously a HUGE gamble, but also a potentially HUGE return.
 
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