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Game 97 Tigers @ D-backs July 22, 2014

Been playing FF7 while cooling off. Cid is a fucking badass.

Anywho, my "quick" takes:
1) Caught between a rock and a hard place, Ausmus made the wrong move in taking out Porcello and PH-ing Davis. I know that this is basically what we got Davis for, to mash lefties, but with Joba unavailable and the rest of the bullpen being a dumpster fire and Porcello cruising with a low pitch count, the right move would have been to let Porcello bat and then try to finish the game. We already had the lead, and its not like porcello has never gotten a hit before (I remember that one game in Pittsburgh.) It looks even worse in hindsight since Davis had a spectacularly bad at-bat.

2) 2 batters before: THATS when you PH Davis, IMO. Avila is struggling and is terrible against LHP. Thats where you PH Davis after they bring in the lefty, and then just sub in Holiday to finish the game. Who knows, maybe Davis still has a terrible AB, but IMO thats where we should have PH him. Holiday getting hurt after coming in is such a remote possibility that to not do that based on that is fucking moronic (plus, its not like Kelly cant emergency catch if something did happen. He's done it before.)

3) Coke over Krol to start the 8th was the right move, in terms of just Coke vs Krol. Coke has actually been better vs lefties this year than Krol. However, I would have started the inning with either Al Al (who has also been better than Krol vs lefties) or Blaine Hardy (because he doesnt suck gigantic amounts of ass like Coke and Krol do.) Of course, Porcello should have started the 8th regardless, but Ausmus compounded his bad decision with another bad decision.



The bullpen is a fucking dumpster fire, and I don't see it getting much better. We're obviously going to end up overpaying for a reliever via trade which should be a band-aid, but really DD should be punched in the goddamn face for letting it get this bad by not addressing the bullpen more in the offseason. As brilliant as the Joba signing has been, he should have just resigned Benoit and then gotten one or two more arms to compete rather than count on Rondon and Nathan and roll with the other scrubs.

Also, Ausmus is a goddamn fucking moron when it comes to in-game management, especially managing the pitching staff. He has absolutely no goddamn clue how to do anything right. Even though the bullpen is a shitpile, he manages to keep making the wrong decisions when everyone and their mother can see there are better ones to be made, even as he makes them w/o the benefit of hindsight. I never thought I'd be this sick of him this early, but he's such a fucking idiot. I was never much of a fan of Leyland's in-game management of the pitching staff, but Ausmus makes him look like a motherfucking genius sometimes.


edit: i didnt really cool down much, did i

edit2: oh, and not PHing Nick for Kelly in the 9th was also fucking stupid.
 
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3) Coke over Krol to start the 8th was the right move, in terms of just Coke vs Krol. Coke has actually been better vs lefties this year than Krol.


I don't see it.

Their opponent numbers vs. LHP are pretty close all around, except for BABIP

Before last night's game

Coke: 70 PA .258/.290/.394./684 babip .327

Krol: 63 PA .228/.302/.386/.688 babip .279

Coke has a better BB/K ratio but he babip tells me Coke just get's hit harder.
 
3-1 vs. the Dodgers, yet 1-2 vs. the Padres. Plus swept by the Blue Jays, and losing record to the Mariners. While winning records vs. OAK, LAA, and Balt.

If we could only play division leaders, we would probably be a .750 win % team LOL.

maybe that's good news...since they will only be playing the good teams if they make the playoffs!
 
This team needs some BP help and quick. It feels like we've blown a good ten games already this year because of the pen.
 
This is what really sucked about trading Fister, why couldn't DD have gotten a couple of quality arms for the pen in return for a good pitcher like DF? We all knew that was a glaring weakness with the roster, instead we got a pile of shit in return. This team would be so much better off if he did, all that trade did was make the team's BP and rotation worse.
 
Tiger Bullpen is second from last in MLB in SD (shutdowns) with 60 (Houston is last with 59). The Orioles lead the category with 103.

Tigers are 7th with 36 Meltdowns. Padres lead the category with only 30 of them.

(Definition of SD and MD Using Win Probability Added (WPA), it’s easy to tell exactly how much a specific player contributed to their team’s odds of winning on a game-by-game basis. In short, if a player increased his team’s win probability by 6% (0.06 WPA), then they get a Shutdown. If a player made his team 6% more likely to lose (-0.06), they get a Meltdown.)

The Tiger Bullpen is a 0.06 WPA. Dodgers are similar with a 0.39 WPA. The Red Sox BP is a 4.53 WPA. Their relievers are helping them win games.

By those numbers the BP isn't helping them win or lose games. It is just there performing below average.
 
Tiger Bullpen is second from last in MLB in SD (shutdowns) with 60 (Houston is last with 59). The Orioles lead the category with 103.

Tigers are 7th with 36 Meltdowns. Padres lead the category with only 30 of them.

(Definition of SD and MD Using Win Probability Added (WPA), it?s easy to tell exactly how much a specific player contributed to their team?s odds of winning on a game-by-game basis. In short, if a player increased his team?s win probability by 6% (0.06 WPA), then they get a Shutdown. If a player made his team 6% more likely to lose (-0.06), they get a Meltdown.)

The Tiger Bullpen is a 0.06 WPA. Dodgers are similar with a 0.39 WPA. The Red Sox BP is a 4.53 WPA. Their relievers are helping them win games.

By those numbers the BP isn't helping them win or lose games. It is just there performing below average.

Last Night's Game WPA

Porcello - .072

Coke - .103

Albq .041

Krol - .532

Knebel .027


By definition, Coke and Krol had "meltdowns", while AA did not. Also by definition, had Porcello been a reliever, his WPA would have qualified him for a "meltdown".

So, bottom line, it is possible for a team to have 3-4 credited meltdowns in one game and still only lose by one run.
 
Last Night's Game WPA

Porcello - .072

Coke - .103

Albq .041

Krol - .532

Knebel .027


By definition, Coke and Krol had "meltdowns", while AA did not. Also by definition, had Porcello been a reliever, his WPA would have qualified him for a "meltdown".

So, bottom line, it is possible for a team to have 3-4 credited meltdowns in one game and still only lose by one run.

Very true. I like it because it assigns appropriate value / blame to middle relief pitchers who otherwise get ignored or get a free-pass. Only one player can get a Loss for a game when it is often more than one pitcher contributing to it of course the same goes for Blown saves or even saves.

Joba leads the Tigers in Shutdowns with 19.
 
Craig Kimbrel 30 SV 22 SD 7 MD 4 BLSV 41 Games

Trevor Rosenthal 30 SV 24 SD 8 MD 4 BLSV 46 Games

Addison Reed 24 SV 20 SD 8 MD 5 BLSV 42 Games

Joe Nathan 20 SV 15 SD 8 MD 5 BLSV 39 Games



Tyler Clippard 1 SV 23 SD 8 MD 3 BLSV 45 Games

Joba Chamberlain 2 SV 19 SD 5 MD 2 BLSV 44 Games


DET is tied for 5th for least amount of Meltdowns compared to other teams. And then is 2nd to last in Shutdowns. Why is that? Because it matters what game conditions are when you enter the games. 14-4 games and the reliever isn't going to get a shutdown.


Tiger Relievers

20th in All Leverage Indexes

25th in Leverage Index entering the game

25th in Leverage Index leaving the game

26th in Leverage Index to start an inning


Based on WPA being influenced by game situations, it would be difficult for a team to have a lot of Shutdowns if the Leverage Indexes caused it to be prohibitive in nature.
 
That's why I don't look at any stat in a vacuum.

Using your 14-4 analogy we can look at WPA/LI and see Detroit at 18th with a .12.
 
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