Welcome to Detroit Sports Forum!

By joining our community, you'll be able to connect with fellow fans that live and breathe Detroit sports just like you!

Get Started
  • If you are no longer able to access your account since our recent switch from vBulletin to XenForo, you may need to reset your password via email. If you no longer have access to the email attached to your account, please fill out our contact form and we will assist you ASAP. Thanks for your continued support of DSF.

Starters/Bullpen

From what I have read, the Tigers plan to have Cespedes in Leftfield.
J.D. Martinez in Rightfield.
 
If we are comparing our opening day starters vs last year, I believe we have downgraded. The top 3 are a wash. Porcello/Smyly are a much better combo than Greene/Simon.

As far as the bullpen, Nathan is still our closer which is a big problem. Gorzalenny is a definite upgrade over Coke. I'm not counting on Hanrahan. If he contributes, it's a bonus. Soria won't be much better than Joba did last year. Rondon won't be 100% healthy. Al Al needs to step up and be a consistent guy. The bullpen still scares the crap out of me.

Overall, our staff is worse than last year. I have no confidence in Jones to improve the staff.
 
Why don't you think Soria will be better than Joba?

He is 10x the pitcher Chamberlain ever was.
 
Why don't you think Soria will be better than Joba?

He is 10x the pitcher Chamberlain ever was.

Joba was good last year. He wore down by the end of the season and was shot. I know Soria is a better pitcher but Joba was the best bullpen pitcher we had for 3/4 of the season.

In other words, he was our best smelling turd.
 
Last edited:
If we are comparing our opening day starters vs last year, I believe we have downgraded. The top 3 are a wash. Porcello/Smyly are a much better combo than Greene/Simon.

As far as the bullpen, Nathan is still our closer which is a big problem. Gorzalenny is a definite upgrade over Coke. I'm not counting on Hanrahan. If he contributes, it's a bonus. Soria won't be much better than Joba did last year. Rondon won't be 100% healthy. Al Al needs to step up and be a consistent guy. The bullpen still scares the crap out of me.

Overall, our staff is worse than last year. I have no confidence in Jones to improve the staff.

Career numbers

Gorzelanny
4.35 FIP, 4.27 ERA, 1.426 WHIP

Coke
3.71 FIP, 4.16 ERA, 1.423 WHIP

Soria
2.85 FIP, 2.58 ERA, 1.057 WHIP

Joba
3.75 FIP, 3.81 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Those numbers suggest to me that Gorzelanny is likely to be Phil Coke 2.0 and Soria should be a BIG improvement over Joba.
 
Career numbers

Gorzelanny
4.35 FIP, 4.27 ERA, 1.426 WHIP

Coke
3.71 FIP, 4.16 ERA, 1.423 WHIP

Soria
2.85 FIP, 2.58 ERA, 1.057 WHIP

Joba
3.75 FIP, 3.81 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Those numbers suggest to me that Gorzelanny is likely to be Phil Coke 2.0 and Soria should be a BIG improvement over Joba.


Last 3 years as reliever (60 IP Min)

A. Miller 2.32 xFIP 2.57 ERA 1.05 WHIP 77.7% LOB 2.42 WPA/LI
J. Grilli 2.92 xFIP 3.21 ERA 1.18 WHIP 77.5% LOB 0.92 WPA/LI
F. Rodney 2.96 xFIP 2.21 ERA 1.14 WHIP 79.0% LOB 2.98 WPA/LI
J. Soria 3.02 xFIP 3.44 ERA 1.12 WHIP 68.1% LOB 0.64 WPA/LI
D. Smyly 3.14 xFIP2.47 ERA 1.06 WHIP 79.2% LOB 1.61 WPA/LI
J. Benoit 3.17 xFIP 2.48 ERA 1.00 WHIP 84.7% LOB 3.66 WPA/LI
C. Furbush 3.17 xFIP 3.40 ERA 1.11 WHIP 70.1% LOB 1.72 WPA/LI
J. Nathan 3.31 xFIP 2.94 ERA1.15 WHIP 77.2% LOB 3.33 WPA/LI
A. Albuquerque 3.35 xFIP 3.16 ERA 1.29 WHIP 82.3% LOB 0.73 WPA/LI
O. Dotel 3.41 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.21 WHIP 64.6% LOB 0.81 WPA/LI
C. Fien 3.49 xFIP 3.54 ERA 1.07 WHIP 72.9% LOB 2.17 WPA/LI
B. Badenhop 3.53 xFIP 2.90 ERA 1.22 WHIP 74.1% LOB 1.37 WPA/LI
J. Veras 3.55 xFIP 3.64 ERA 1.32 WHIP 75.5% LOB 0.40 WPA/LI
J. Frasor 3.61 xFIP 3.09 ERA 1.27 WHIP 79.4% LOB 1.28 WPA/LI

J. Chamberlain 3.80 xFIP 4.15 ERA 1.48 WHIP 74.6% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Johnson 3.84 xFIP 3.93 ERA 1.37 WHIP 71.4% LOB 0.98 WPA/LI
P. Coke 3.94 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.61 WHIP 72.8% LOB -1.60 WPA/LI
A. Simon 4.08 xFIP 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 78.5% LOB 0.19 WPA/LI
T. Gorzelanny 4.11 xFIP 2.50 ERA 1.26 WHIP 83.6% LOB 0.48 WPA/LI
D. Downs 4.11 xFIP 5.76 ERA 1.33 WHIP 65.7% LOB 0.20 WPA/LI
B. Lyon 4.13 xFIP 3.78 ERA 1.38 WHIP 75.9% LOB -0.01 WPA/LI
K. Farnsworth 4.18 xFIP 4.40 ERA 1.45 WHIP 71.8% LOB -0.92 WPA/LI
J. Hanrahan 4.55 xFIP 3.49 ERA 1.37 WHIP 87.9% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Valverde 4.65 xFIP 4.46 ERA 1.32 WHIP 66.8% LOB -0.05 WPA/LI

**A. Wilson 4.34 xFIP 3.38 ERA 1.30 WHIP 72.4% LOB 0.07 WPA/LI


Aside from xFIP (or even FIP), Coke's relief numbers aren't even close to Gorzelanny's.


259 Pitchers with at least 60 IP in relief

Median xFIP = 3.72 xFIP

Median ERA = 3.36 ERA

Median WHIP = 1.25 WHIP

Median %LOB = 76.1% LOB

Medina WPA/LI = 0.54 WPA/LI
 
Last 3 years as reliever (60 IP Min)

A. Miller 2.32 xFIP 2.57 ERA 1.05 WHIP 77.7% LOB 2.42 WPA/LI
J. Grilli 2.92 xFIP 3.21 ERA 1.18 WHIP 77.5% LOB 0.92 WPA/LI
F. Rodney 2.96 xFIP 2.21 ERA 1.14 WHIP 79.0% LOB 2.98 WPA/LI
J. Soria 3.02 xFIP 3.44 ERA 1.12 WHIP 68.1% LOB 0.64 WPA/LI
D. Smyly 3.14 xFIP2.47 ERA 1.06 WHIP 79.2% LOB 1.61 WPA/LI
J. Benoit 3.17 xFIP 2.48 ERA 1.00 WHIP 84.7% LOB 3.66 WPA/LI
C. Furbush 3.17 xFIP 3.40 ERA 1.11 WHIP 70.1% LOB 1.72 WPA/LI
J. Nathan 3.31 xFIP 2.94 ERA1.15 WHIP 77.2% LOB 3.33 WPA/LI
A. Albuquerque 3.35 xFIP 3.16 ERA 1.29 WHIP 82.3% LOB 0.73 WPA/LI
O. Dotel 3.41 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.21 WHIP 64.6% LOB 0.81 WPA/LI
C. Fien 3.49 xFIP 3.54 ERA 1.07 WHIP 72.9% LOB 2.17 WPA/LI
B. Badenhop 3.53 xFIP 2.90 ERA 1.22 WHIP 74.1% LOB 1.37 WPA/LI
J. Veras 3.55 xFIP 3.64 ERA 1.32 WHIP 75.5% LOB 0.40 WPA/LI
J. Frasor 3.61 xFIP 3.09 ERA 1.27 WHIP 79.4% LOB 1.28 WPA/LI

J. Chamberlain 3.80 xFIP 4.15 ERA 1.48 WHIP 74.6% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Johnson 3.84 xFIP 3.93 ERA 1.37 WHIP 71.4% LOB 0.98 WPA/LI
P. Coke 3.94 xFIP 4.31 ERA 1.61 WHIP 72.8% LOB -1.60 WPA/LI
A. Simon 4.08 xFIP 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 78.5% LOB 0.19 WPA/LI
T. Gorzelanny 4.11 xFIP 2.50 ERA 1.26 WHIP 83.6% LOB 0.48 WPA/LI
D. Downs 4.11 xFIP 5.76 ERA 1.33 WHIP 65.7% LOB 0.20 WPA/LI
B. Lyon 4.13 xFIP 3.78 ERA 1.38 WHIP 75.9% LOB -0.01 WPA/LI
K. Farnsworth 4.18 xFIP 4.40 ERA 1.45 WHIP 71.8% LOB -0.92 WPA/LI
J. Hanrahan 4.55 xFIP 3.49 ERA 1.37 WHIP 87.9% LOB -0.25 WPA/LI
J. Valverde 4.65 xFIP 4.46 ERA 1.32 WHIP 66.8% LOB -0.05 WPA/LI

**A. Wilson 4.34 xFIP 3.38 ERA 1.30 WHIP 72.4% LOB 0.07 WPA/LI


Aside from xFIP (or even FIP), Coke's relief numbers aren't even close to Gorzelanny's.


259 Pitchers with at least 60 IP in relief

Median xFIP = 3.72 xFIP

Median ERA = 3.36 ERA

Median WHIP = 1.25 WHIP

Median %LOB = 76.1% LOB

Medina WPA/LI = 0.54 WPA/LI

I was just pointing out that Gorzelanny is closer to Coke compared to Jaba vs. Soria. I agree that Gorzelanny should be better than Coke...but their career numbers are pretty similar.
 
I was just pointing out that Gorzelanny is closer to Coke compared to Jaba vs. Soria. I agree that Gorzelanny should be better than Coke...but their career numbers are pretty similar.


You are looking at all of Gorzelanny's numbers and not just his relief numbers.

Career in Relief

Gorzlennay 2.88 ERA 1.24 WHIP .650 OPP OPS

P. Coke 3.97 ERA 1.40 WHIP .745 OPP OPS


They aren't close. Not even. You can say closer, but that is misleading.
 
Last edited:
You are looking at all of Gorzelanny's numbers and not just his relief numbers.

Career in Relief

Gorzlennay 2.88 ERA 1.24 WHIP .650 OPP OPS

P. Coke 3.97 ERA 1.40 WHIP .745 OPP OPS


They aren't close. Not even. You can say closer, but that is misleading.

my bad...I was just looking at their career numbers. I didn't realize that he spent most of his career as a starter. It looks like we should expect a nice improvement for both (Coke to Gorz and Joba to Soria)
 
Last edited:
Unfortunately SP going south is a bit more than a marginal increase on offense, defense and BP.

Marginal increase in defense? Nah we got much better in the defensive department. Iggy and Cespedes are two of the top defensive players at their positions respectively.

And like many said our bullpen can only go up from last year, even if they become average thats a GIANT improvement.
 
We'll definitely be better on defense, but lets not overstate it either, especially not Cespedes. His defense is average at best for everything but his arm, which is elite. His range is ok and hes not good at running routes, which his arm makes up for sometimes. He'll be above average overall.

Iggy should definitely be elite on defense. Nick should improve but still be below average. Miggy is a wild card with his foot issue. Kinsler will almost certainly take a step back defensively this year if only because he's a year older now but still should be average at worst. JDMart should be below average but not terrible. Gose should be very good, Davis should be ok, and Avila/McCann will be excellent.


Overall we'll probably be above average because of how strong we'll be up the middle, which will be a sizeable improvement from our norm of botton 5 in baseball.
 
Last edited:
We'll definitely be better on defense, but lets not overstate it either, especially not Cespedes. His defense is average at best for everything but his arm, which is elite. His range is ok and hes not good at running routes, which his arm makes up for sometimes. He'll be above average overall.

Iggy should definitely be elite on defense. Nick should improve but still be below average. Miggy is a wild card with his foot issue. Kinsler will almost certainly take a step back defensively this year if only because he's a year older now but still should be average at worst. JDMart should be below average but not terrible. Gose should be very good, Davis should be ok, and Avila/McCann will be excellent.


Overall we'll probably be above average because of how strong we'll be up the middle, which will be a sizeable improvement from our norm of botton 5 in baseball.

The nice thing is every change should be a change for the better. I don't see Kinsler getting any worse this year...it's not like he is turning 40
 
Marginal increase in defense? Nah we got much better in the defensive department. Iggy and Cespedes are two of the top defensive players at their positions respectively.

And like many said our bullpen can only go up from last year, even if they become average thats a GIANT improvement.

Cespedes is barely above average. He's better defender than Hunter and as much as I think Ziggy is a defensive stud..it's a marginal increase on D. IMO. Losing Max is huge, losing Porcello and Smyly is pretty huge itself. The new new SP won't make up for that..

And as far as the BP, I heard that last year.
 
Last edited:
Cespedes is barely above average. He's better defender than Hunter and as much as I think Ziggy is a defensive stud..it's a marginal increase on D. IMO. Losing Max is huge, losing Porcello and Smyly is pretty huge itself. The new new SP won't make up for that..

And as far as the BP, I heard that last year.


No. You sound like my brother-in-law who was arguing with me that losing Max would cost us 10 wins.


2013 Cleveland Indians SP - Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber, Zach McAllister

2013 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello.

Our rotation was far, far superior. But in the end the Indians went 92-70. 1 game back of Detroit.

2014 Kansas City Royals SP - James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza

2014 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly/David Price

Once again, we had a far superior rotation. The last 3 AL CY Young winners all on the same team at one point! Royals went 89-73. 1 game back.


Losing Max and Porcello don't hurt as much as you believe. As long as Greene and Simon (or someone who replaces him) are at least competent.

At least we get a compensation pick from the Nats for losing Max, unlike with Porcello/Cespedes.
 
No. You sound like my brother-in-law who was arguing with me that losing Max would cost us 10 wins.


2013 Cleveland Indians SP - Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber, Zach McAllister

2013 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello.

Our rotation was far, far superior. But in the end the Indians went 92-70. 1 game back of Detroit.

2014 Kansas City Royals SP - James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza

2014 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly/David Price

Once again, we had a far superior rotation. The last 3 AL CY Young winners all on the same team at one point! Royals went 89-73. 1 game back.


Losing Max and Porcello don't hurt as much as you believe. As long as Greene and Simon (or someone who replaces him) are at least competent.

At least we get a compensation pick from the Nats for losing Max, unlike with Porcello/Cespedes.

I'm not really talking about 10 wins but regards to offense and defense, and BP that was brought up they're not bringing a whole lot of wins themselves.

But my point was that we lost more on SP then we gained with the others. IMO. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I meant ..especially since I think most of us thought the BP would be better last year.
 
No. You sound like my brother-in-law who was arguing with me that losing Max would cost us 10 wins.


2013 Cleveland Indians SP - Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber, Zach McAllister

2013 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello.

Our rotation was far, far superior. But in the end the Indians went 92-70. 1 game back of Detroit.

2014 Kansas City Royals SP - James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen/Luis Mendoza

2014 Detroit Tigers SP - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly/David Price

Once again, we had a far superior rotation. The last 3 AL CY Young winners all on the same team at one point! Royals went 89-73. 1 game back.


Losing Max and Porcello don't hurt as much as you believe. As long as Greene and Simon (or someone who replaces him) are at least competent.

At least we get a compensation pick from the Nats for losing Max, unlike with Porcello/Cespedes.


2014 Quality Starts

KCR 95 QS 61 Starter Wins (64.2%) 89 Total Wins
DET 90 QS 68 Starter Wins (75.6%) 90 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 57 Starter Wins (68.7%) 82 Total Wins

2013 Quality Starts

DET 108 QS 76 Starter Wins (70.4%) 93 Total Wins
CLE 73 QS 59 Starter Wins (80.8%) 92 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 56 Starter Wins (67.5%) 81 Total Wins


2012 Quality Starts

DET 90 QS 63 Starter Wins (70.0%) 88 Total Wins
CHW 86 QS 60 Starter Wins (69.8%) 85 Total Wins
AL AVG 81 QS 59 Starter Wins (72.8%) 82 Total Wins


Given average run support and average relief pitching, a team will win as many games as they have Quality Starts. More wins means better offense and/or relief pitching. Less wins generally means worse offense and/or relief pitching.

Without a big bounce back year from Verlander, I doubt DET comes close to 90 QS.

Top Three QS

2014 = Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello = 61 QS in 96 GS 63.5% 59 TWins (Price, Sanchez, Verlander = 35 QS in 64 GS 54.7% 37 TWins)

2013 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 69 QS in 98 GS 70.4% 57 TWins

2012 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 62 QS in 91 QS 68.1% 55 TWins


At last 3 years rate, Verlander+Price+Sanchez = 61 QS 91 GS 67.0% 50 TWins

You have to go back to 2011 to see a season where Sanchez had 32 or more games started in a season. He has averaged 27 GS over the last 3 years.

Average Games Started Last 3 years:

Verlander 33.0 GS 21.7 QS 65.8% 18.0 TWins
Scherzer 32.3 GS 22.3 QS 69.0% 23.3 TWins
Price 30.7 GS 22.3 QS 72.8% 18.3 TWins
Porcello 30.3 GS 17.3 QS 57.1% 16.3 TWins
Fister 27.7 GS 19.0 QS 68.7% 16.3 TWins
Sanchez 27.0 GS 17.3 QS 64.2% 14.0 TWins


I will also point out how many were stoked for our defense prior to the start of 2014. We were supposed to be vastly improved with Miggy at 1B over Fielder, Castellanos at 3B or Miggy and having Iggy + Kinsler up the middle. What happened? How well did that work out?

Team UZR/150

2014 DET = 28th -6.9 (29th OF -9.8)

2013 DET = 21st -3.1 (17th OF -1.1)

2012 DET = 27th -4.9 (29th OF -7.3)

2011 DET = 15th 0.2 (17th OF -0.6)

2010 DET = 6th 4.0 (7th OF 5.7)

2009 DET = 6th 4.6 (15th OF 0.2)

2008 DET = 29th -9.3 (28th OF -9.2)

2007 DET = 5th 4.8 (6th OF 6.6)

2006 DET = 4th 6.3 (17th OF -0.7)


So goes the Outfield defense, so goes DET's Team defense. On paper, is the 2015 DET OF defense better than 2014? Absolutely, you couldn't get much worse. Aside from putting a Brennan Boesch or Delmon Young in the OF, just about anyone would have been an upgrade.

How much better? Well that is debatable. I put it at only 2 wins, with a hit of about 2 wins on offense. Yet, the improved OF defense should help the pitching.

As far as Cespedes in LF. Think Ryan Raburn with a cannon. He is going to make a lot of plays look interesting. And if Davis is in CF, don't expect him to help cover for any mistakes.
 
2014 Quality Starts

KCR 95 QS 61 Starter Wins (64.2%) 89 Total Wins
DET 90 QS 68 Starter Wins (75.6%) 90 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 57 Starter Wins (68.7%) 82 Total Wins

2013 Quality Starts

DET 108 QS 76 Starter Wins (70.4%) 93 Total Wins
CLE 73 QS 59 Starter Wins (80.8%) 92 Total Wins
AL AVG 83 QS 56 Starter Wins (67.5%) 81 Total Wins


2012 Quality Starts

DET 90 QS 63 Starter Wins (70.0%) 88 Total Wins
CHW 86 QS 60 Starter Wins (69.8%) 85 Total Wins
AL AVG 81 QS 59 Starter Wins (72.8%) 82 Total Wins


Given average run support and average relief pitching, a team will win as many games as they have Quality Starts. More wins means better offense and/or relief pitching. Less wins generally means worse offense and/or relief pitching.

Without a big bounce back year from Verlander, I doubt DET comes close to 90 QS.

Top Three QS

2014 = Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello = 61 QS in 96 GS 63.5% 59 TWins (Price, Sanchez, Verlander = 35 QS in 64 GS 54.7% 37 TWins)

2013 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 69 QS in 98 GS 70.4% 57 TWins

2012 = Verlander, Scherzer, Fister = 62 QS in 91 QS 68.1% 55 TWins


At last 3 years rate, Verlander+Price+Sanchez = 61 QS 91 GS 67.0% 50 TWins

You have to go back to 2011 to see a season where Sanchez had 32 or more games started in a season. He has averaged 27 GS over the last 3 years.

Average Games Started Last 3 years:

Verlander 33.0 GS 21.7 QS 65.8% 18.0 TWins
Scherzer 32.3 GS 22.3 QS 69.0% 23.3 TWins
Price 30.7 GS 22.3 QS 72.8% 18.3 TWins
Porcello 30.3 GS 17.3 QS 57.1% 16.3 TWins
Fister 27.7 GS 19.0 QS 68.7% 16.3 TWins
Sanchez 27.0 GS 17.3 QS 64.2% 14.0 TWins


I will also point out how many were stoked for our defense prior to the start of 2014. We were supposed to be vastly improved with Miggy at 1B over Fielder, Castellanos at 3B or Miggy and having Iggy + Kinsler up the middle. What happened? How well did that work out?

Team UZR/150

2014 DET = 28th -6.9 (29th OF -9.8)

2013 DET = 21st -3.1 (17th OF -1.1)

2012 DET = 27th -4.9 (29th OF -7.3)

2011 DET = 15th 0.2 (17th OF -0.6)

2010 DET = 6th 4.0 (7th OF 5.7)

2009 DET = 6th 4.6 (15th OF 0.2)

2008 DET = 29th -9.3 (28th OF -9.2)

2007 DET = 5th 4.8 (6th OF 6.6)

2006 DET = 4th 6.3 (17th OF -0.7)


So goes the Outfield defense, so goes DET's Team defense. On paper, is the 2015 DET OF defense better than 2014? Absolutely, you couldn't get much worse. Aside from putting a Brennan Boesch or Delmon Young in the OF, just about anyone would have been an upgrade.

How much better? Well that is debatable. I put it at only 2 wins, with a hit of about 2 wins on offense. Yet, the improved OF defense should help the pitching.

As far as Cespedes in LF. Think Ryan Raburn with a cannon. He is going to make a lot of plays look interesting. And if Davis is in CF, don't expect him to help cover for any mistakes.

Good stuff as usual. The only thing that I don't fully buy is the defense. Nick was worse than he was expected to be...he can only be better (HOPEFULLY). The rotating door at SS was bad so that should be a huge improvement. I don't think anybody thought Hunter would have regressed as badly as he did. Although Jackson was better than those who replace him he was also worse than he was in 2013. Also, you yourself said that URZ/150 stats are very volatile.

I am very optimistic about the defense this year. I hope that they platoon Gose or bring him in to pinch run / defense replacement late. I expect an improvement for Nick, a huge improvement at SS and a nice improvement from Hunter to Cespedes. All of those things probably won't happen...but I am hopeful.
 
Good stuff as usual. The only thing that I don't fully buy is the defense. Nick was worse than he was expected to be...he can only be better (HOPEFULLY). The rotating door at SS was bad so that should be a huge improvement. I don't think anybody thought Hunter would have regressed as badly as he did. Although Jackson was better than those who replace him he was also worse than he was in 2013. Also, you yourself said that URZ/150 stats are very volatile.

I am very optimistic about the defense this year. I hope that they platoon Gose or bring him in to pinch run / defense replacement late. I expect an improvement for Nick, a huge improvement at SS and a nice improvement from Hunter to Cespedes. All of those things probably won't happen...but I am hopeful.

I said they are at lower sample rates. Team data and outfield data as a whole generally negates the "lower sample rates". 3 year's worth of data for 1 player generally is enough and amounts to about 3,000 innings or more.

Most people do not understand UZR/150. UZR is basically using Linear Weights for defense. It looks at where a ball was hit and determines whether a ball hit in the same spot would have been fielded by an average fielder at that position, park adjusted.

Hypothetically, if Torii Hunter is playing close to the foul line and a ball was hit into Right Center and landed for a double and it was determined it would have been an out or a single by an average fielder, regardless of his positioning, then it goes against Hunter. The key here is it does not take into account extreme positioning by the fielder\team and/or defense.

If David Ortiz is up and all infielders are on the rightside except the 3B and he grounds a single through the leftside even if it would have been an out without the shift, either the SS or 3B is going to get deducted for it. Conversely, if the 2B makes a play on an Ortiz ball that was placed where an average fielder wouldn't get to, then they get a huge credit.

Are we confused yet? And FYI, if an out is made, no fielder in discredited, regardless of what position fielded it. It is discredited to say the RFer, even if the shift meant the CFer was closer to the play.

Next, using Linear Weights and not taking base out into consideration, it would take roughly 4 singles to be 1 run difference in UZR. The average 2014 AL RF had 2.12 Total Chances per game. DET averaged 1.81. That is a difference of .31 per game, or 50 per season. You then probably want to argue that DET was 12.5 runs below average in RF in 2014 and UZR was 16.3 runs below average. But it isn't that simple. Strikeouts or specifically a pitching staff which throws a lot of strikeouts reduces the Total Chances a fielder will see over the course of a season. Additionally, some teams face more Lefthanded batters than others. This also has an impact. DET pitchers had 655 Plate Appearances more than OAK against Lefthanded Hitters. In fact they lead the majors with Appearances against Lefthanded hitters. This actually impacts Castellanos as well, because he should be seeing less balls hit his way and if they are, he may have been positioned against the ball in play.

Positioning, regardless of player, is the key. I will also point out that DET RFers in 2014 lead the Major Leagues is preventing opponents from taking an extra base (55.4% Held). They were 27th in LF and 28th in CF. Not many teams tried to take more extra bases on DET RFers in 2014, but they did for the rest of the OF.

I am NOT a Hunter apologist. I absolutely believe his defensive skills have diminished. What I will articulate is that it isn't tens of runs difference, regardless was UZR states. There are biases in UZR. Please understand what they are before citing them as if they are somehow gospel.

Yes, I use UZR/150 because I believe it is the best defensive metric available (better than DRS). DRS has it's own biases, particularly for the OFers and that is HR's saved. How does a LFer in Fenway have a HR saved? Or ARZ CFer? Add to the fact DRS is not a rate stat.
 
Back
Top