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Starters/Bullpen

Thundercats

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
2,111
Alright, do we think this year's 'Pen is improved? I do, albeit slightly. Hanrahan, if healthy, could be a marked improvement over our 7th inning guys last year. Gorzelanny is a vast improvement over Coke. A healthy Soria for a full year should also be beneficial, as he's a much better reliever than Joba. Nathan probably couldn't get any worse. I look at him as a low risk/high reward guy. I have optimism he bounces back.. if he doesn't we have Soria to take his 9th inning spot. That still leaves us with AA, who proved to be a weapon last year.. Rondon could be back in time for ST. Alex Wilson, a 2nd rounder acquired in the Cespedes trade, could also be a good relief option in the 7th inning.

As for the rotation, we've downgraded slightly.
Price is a little better than Scherzer
Verlander could bounce back
Sanchez needs to stay healthy
Simon is a huge ??.. I think he's better out of the pen
Same with Greene.

We could really used James Shields IMO. He'd take less than the money we already offered Max last Spring, and is just as good a pitcher if you ask me.

Overall, I think our pitching is a wash.. however, as an entire staff, they are more balanced.
 
I seriously doubt our bullpen could be as bad as last years, but stranger things have happened.

Our rotation is not as good. Period. That does not mean we can't be successful, but what we have now is not close to Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez/Porcello/Smyly-Price. We more than slightly downgraded.
 
One problem the Tigers seem to have in past few years is sticking with a player batter or pitcher/reliever for too long. Hope here is there is a shorter leash for Nathan.

Rondon will be a ? mark for me for the year. imo Gorzo will help, and I am kind of optimistic about Wilson in the bullpen. From what we saw the 2 games Shane Greene pitched vs. our Tigers last year, he was good. I can't help but think that Wimpy is going to help these guys with maybe discarding one type pitch for another.

Also, from recent stories in the team notes, I am very optimistic with Verlander having a bounce back year to close to what he was 2/3 years back.

Sanchez 'has' to stay healthy, otherwise most of us will sour on him for being brittle.

idk what to think about Simon. True, I would think he is better served in the bullpen.
But that means DD would have to sign or trade for another starter.
 
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One problem the Tigers seem to have in past few years is sticking with a player batter or pitcher/reliever for too long. Hope here is there is a shorter leash for Nathan.

Rondon will be a ? mark for me for the year. imo Gorzo will help, and I am kind of optimistic about Wilson in the bullpen. From what we saw the 2 games Shane Greene pitched vs. our Tigers last year, he was good. I can't help but think that Wimpy is going to help these guys with maybe discarding one type pitch for another.

Also, from recent stories in the team notes, I am very optimistic with Verlander having a bounce back year to close to what he was 2/3 years back.

Sanchez 'has' to stay healthy, otherwise most of us will sour on him for being brittle.

idk what to think about Simon. True, I would think he is better served in the bullpen.
But that means DD would have to sign or trade for another starter.

I'm not as worried about the rotation, because DD has proven time again that he'll trade for a SP mid-season. Fister, Sanchez, Price etc. That is the one position he seems to have a knack for. He can't help our bullpen or defense much, but he usually comes through for our starting pitching. Hell, he went out and got Price when we didn't even need him last year.
 
I seriously doubt our bullpen could be as bad as last years, but stranger things have happened.

Our rotation is not as good. Period. That does not mean we can't be successful, but what we have now is not close to Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez/Porcello/Smyly-Price. We more than slightly downgraded.

The question is, though.. is our rotation still better than anyone in the Al Central? I believe so. KC's gotten quite worse. The Sox have improved greatly.. but I still think ours is better. Cleveland's rotation is really a one-man army. I'm optimistic about JV this year like KC mentioned. This is the first offseason in 2 years where he's been able to train and build strength. Sure, his 2013 wasn't great, but it still very good when you consider the horrid stretch he had in May-July.
 
The question is, though.. is our rotation still better than anyone in the Al Central? I believe so. KC's gotten quite worse. The Sox have improved greatly.. but I still think ours is better. Cleveland's rotation is really a one-man army. I'm optimistic about JV this year like KC mentioned. This is the first offseason in 2 years where he's been able to train and build strength. Sure, his 2013 wasn't great, but it still very good when you consider the horrid stretch he had in May-July.


Thundercats, That's true, the caveat to it is again with the loss of top talent prospects they did give up a few.
I would feel comfortable going into the second half if he did once more. Both Simon faded, course maybe not as much this year with the IP build up from 2014, and could add IP to Greene's 2014 total.

I forgot to mention from those links on JV that got me to feeling optimistic of a return to his previous "Bad Self" was that he said he has been able to go back to 'his' offseason workouts and went from what he said was 210/215 and added 20/25 pounds of muscle back up to 235.
 
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The question is, though.. is our rotation still better than anyone in the Al Central? I believe so. KC's gotten quite worse. The Sox have improved greatly.. but I still think ours is better. Cleveland's rotation is really a one-man army. I'm optimistic about JV this year like KC mentioned. This is the first offseason in 2 years where he's been able to train and build strength. Sure, his 2013 wasn't great, but it still very good when you consider the horrid stretch he had in May-July.


Yes, but having the best rotation in the Central does not win us anything.

We had the best rotation in the central for the last 4 years, yet the last 2 seasons we only managed to win the division by 1 game, 2012 by 3. Only 2011 did we really outclass everyone in the division, which we won by 15 games.

Our starting pitching took a big step back, but our offense and bullpen should be improved. (compared to 2014) I didn't and still don't like the Porcello for Cespedes trade, but he really improves both our defense and offense on whichever corner OF spot he ends up playing. JD needs to prove 2014 was not a fluke. Vmart is going to regress, 2014 will likely be his career best, but hopefully 2015 is not far off. Nick will hopefully improve his patience and his power, though I suspect his defense will never get much better. Cabrera will improve on 2014's numbers, Hopefully Kinsler can average out the season rather then be white hot early and Don Kelly like down the stretch. Iggy and Avila will be what we expect, superb defenders, but light hitters. The only real question mark is how will CF play out.

I have no doubt JV will improve, I and most of the knowledgeable posters and most sportswriters knew his sudden drop off was likely due to the core muscle injury/surgery even when JV denied it. Plenty of people who called him "trash" or "washed up" will gain about 20 pounds this summer from eating so much crow. But even still, I doubt he is going to be like the 2012 JV, but more likely just a solid, dependable guy, who will still be considered a premium pitcher, just not the best in baseball.

To paraphrase Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks: It's not about having the best guys, it's about having the right ones.

So whether or not we have the best rotation in the Central, or the best offense, or worst bullpen is largely irrelevant. It's how they all perform together which will determine our ultimate successes.
 
Yes, but having the best rotation in the Central does not win us anything.

We had the best rotation in the central for the last 4 years, yet the last 2 seasons we only managed to win the division by 1 game, 2012 by 3. Only 2011 did we really outclass everyone in the division, which we won by 15 games.

Our starting pitching took a big step back, but our offense and bullpen should be improved. (compared to 2014) I didn't and still don't like the Porcello for Cespedes trade, but he really improves both our defense and offense on whichever corner OF spot he ends up playing. JD needs to prove 2014 was not a fluke. Vmart is going to regress, 2014 will likely be his career best, but hopefully 2015 is not far off. Nick will hopefully improve his patience and his power, though I suspect his defense will never get much better. Cabrera will improve on 2014's numbers, Hopefully Kinsler can average out the season rather then be white hot early and Don Kelly like down the stretch. Iggy and Avila will be what we expect, superb defenders, but light hitters. The only real question mark is how will CF play out.

I have no doubt JV will improve, I and most of the knowledgeable posters and most sportswriters knew his sudden drop off was likely due to the core muscle injury/surgery even when JV denied it. Plenty of people who called him "trash" or "washed up" will gain about 20 pounds this summer from eating so much crow. But even still, I doubt he is going to be like the 2012 JV, but more likely just a solid, dependable guy, who will still be considered a premium pitcher, just not the best in baseball.

To paraphrase Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks: It's not about having the best guys, it's about having the right ones.

So whether or not we have the best rotation in the Central, or the best offense, or worst bullpen is largely irrelevant. It's how they all perform together which will determine our ultimate successes.

Well, like you said.. SP is worse, but BP, Defense and Offense have gotten better. I like how more balanced that makes them.
 
Well, like you said.. SP is worse, but BP, Defense and Offense have gotten better. I like how more balanced that makes them.

Unfortunately SP going south is a bit more than a marginal increase on offense, defense and BP.
 
The rotation has the potential to be very good if everything goes our way. Even if Simon is crap, if the other 4 pan out we're good. Price should be excellent, hopefully both JV and Sanchez will be healthy and very good, and Greene has the chance to be good as well. I have zero hopes for Simon not sucking ass, but then I remember that we won a division title with Brad Penny as our 5th starter lol.
 
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Well, like you said.. SP is worse, but BP, Defense and Offense have gotten better. I like how more balanced that makes them.
Im not so sure the offense has gotten better. Cespedes for Hunter is a wash. Can we really expect the same years for Victor and JD, I don't think that's realistic. Kinsler was the same kinsler that texas fans hated the last 3 years after the all star break. Miggy has another offseason of injury rehab so most likely another slow start. Oh and I will be surprised if Avila, Iglesias, and Gose can all break .220
 
Im not so sure the offense has gotten better. Cespedes for Hunter is a wash. Can we really expect the same years for Victor and JD, I don't think that's realistic. Kinsler was the same kinsler that texas fans hated the last 3 years after the all star break. Miggy has another offseason of injury rehab so most likely another slow start. Oh and I will be surprised if Avila, Iglesias, and Gose can all break .220

Iglesias, .290. That's what I'm thinking. I'm drinking on the koolaid on this one.
 
It's batting average, who fucking cares what it is.

And 2 posts up from this...I stopped reading when I saw "Cespedes for Hunter is a wash".

Please.
 
It's batting average, who fucking cares what it is.

And 2 posts up from this...I stopped reading when I saw "Cespedes for Hunter is a wash".

Please.

Over the last 3 seasons, they were a wash, even with the 8 runs difference in UZR/150

Now, if we are just looking at last season, that is a different story. The other thing to add is Cespedes has never played RF. He is known for taking the wrong route in the OF, despite his strong arm. Is he playing LF or RF? I bet he stays in LF. If he does change to RF, I doubt his UZR/150 will be as strong. A .750 OPS in LF with good defense isn't as bad as .750 OPS in RF and slightly above average defense.
 
Over the last 3 seasons, they were a wash, even with the 8 runs difference in UZR/150

Now, if we are just looking at last season, that is a different story. The other thing to add is Cespedes has never played RF. He is known for taking the wrong route in the OF, despite his strong arm. Is he playing LF or RF? I bet he stays in LF. If he does change to RF, I doubt his UZR/150 will be as strong. A .750 OPS in LF with good defense isn't as bad as .750 OPS in RF and slightly above average defense.

Hunter has regressed quickly over the past 3 seasons. In 2012 he was very good offensively and still above average defensively. Since he has been with the Tigers he has been below average...and in 2014 he was way below average. Given his age and decline I think you probably have to only look at the most recent stats...not the great stats he had in 2012. 2012 is along time ago for a 40 year old outfielder.
 
It's batting average, who fucking cares what it is.

And 2 posts up from this...I stopped reading when I saw "Cespedes for Hunter is a wash".

Please.
Look at the stats, offensively it is a wash. You could even say hunter was slightly better last year
 
Iglesias, .290. That's what I'm thinking. I'm drinking on the koolaid on this one.
When victor missed a whole season remember how bad he was for most of the following year at the plate till he got going? And thats a .300 hitter, I think its asking alot for Iglesias to do the same as Victor
 
Hunter has regressed quickly over the past 3 seasons. In 2012 he was very good offensively and still above average defensively. Since he has been with the Tigers he has been below average...and in 2014 he was way below average. Given his age and decline I think you probably have to only look at the most recent stats...not the great stats he had in 2012. 2012 is along time ago for a 40 year old outfielder.


WAR Last 2 years (without 2012)

Y. Cespedes 5.6 (2.8 a year)
A. Jackson 4.1 (2.1 a year)
T. Hunter 2.9 (1.5 a year)
R. Davis 2.6 (1.3 a year)
J.D. Martinez 2.5 (1.3 a year)
A. Gose 1.0 (0.5 a year)

**NOTE: I am not a fan of WAR

Last 2 years wRC+ (2014)

J.D. Martinez 122 (153)
T. Hunter 115 (113)
Y. Cespedes 106 (109)
A. Jackson 96 (85)
R. Davis 96 (102)
A. Gose 77 (73)

Last 2 years UZR/150

Y. Cespedes 11.5
A. Gose 6.5

R. Davis -6.7
A. Jackson -7.1
J.D. Martinez -8.0
T. Hunter -13.3


Last 3 years UZR/150 and others

2012 R. Davis -5.4
2013 R. Davis -2.2
2014 R. Davis -8.9
(variance 7.7)

2012 A. Jackson 4.0
2013 A. Jackson -4.5
2014 A. Jackson -10.0
(variance 8.5)

2010 B. Boesch -5.2
2011 B. Boesch -9.1
2012 B. Boesch -18.0
(variance 8.9)

2012 J.D. Martinez -13.2
2013 J.D. Martinez -19.7
2014 J.D. Martinez -2.3
(variance 17.4)

2012 T. Hunter 14.0
2013 R. Hunter -5.1
2014 T. Hunter -20.1
(variance 19.1)

2012 Y. Cespedes -13.3
2013 Y. Cespedes 9.9
2014 Y. Cespedes 11.4
(variance 24.7)

2012 A. Dirks -11.7
2013 A. Dirks 13.3
(variance = 25.0)

2006 C. Granderson 13.0
2007 C. Granderson 14.7
2008 C. Granderson -11.8
(variance 26.5)

2012 A. Gose 4.4
2013 A. Gose -22.2
2014 A. Gose 20.8
(variance 43.0)

2012 DET OF -7.3 (Boesch in RF)
2013 DET OF -1.1
2014 DET OF -9.8


First, UZR is a component of WAR. UZR is a highly volatile stat, especially at lower sample rates. Even one year's worth of data can be misleading. A player can change by 20 runs or more in 1 year alone. Does this mean he was 20 runs worse? I don't believe that is the case. Each one of the above listed OFers had at least a 6 run difference from one year to the next. Of the players listed, only Rajai Davis had a consistent 3 years worth of data.

As a general statement, I will agree that Hunter regressed in 2014. I don't believe it was by 15 runs (which UZR/150 suggests). Just like I do not believe J.D. Martinez some how improved his defense by 17 runs.

3 year's worth of UZR/150 data will give you a truer picture of the defense, then fixating on one or two year's worth of data.
 
WAR Last 2 years (without 2012)

Y. Cespedes 5.6 (2.8 a year)
A. Jackson 4.1 (2.1 a year)
T. Hunter 2.9 (1.5 a year)
R. Davis 2.6 (1.3 a year)
J.D. Martinez 2.5 (1.3 a year)
A. Gose 1.0 (0.5 a year)

**NOTE: I am not a fan of WAR

Last 2 years wRC+ (2014)

J.D. Martinez 122 (153)
T. Hunter 115 (113)
Y. Cespedes 106 (109)
A. Jackson 96 (85)
R. Davis 96 (102)
A. Gose 77 (73)

Last 2 years UZR/150

Y. Cespedes 11.5
A. Gose 6.5

R. Davis -6.7
A. Jackson -7.1
J.D. Martinez -8.0
T. Hunter -13.3


Last 3 years UZR/150 and others

2012 R. Davis -5.4
2013 R. Davis -2.2
2014 R. Davis -8.9
(variance 7.7)

2012 A. Jackson 4.0
2013 A. Jackson -4.5
2014 A. Jackson -10.0
(variance 8.5)

2010 B. Boesch -5.2
2011 B. Boesch -9.1
2012 B. Boesch -18.0
(variance 8.9)

2012 J.D. Martinez -13.2
2013 J.D. Martinez -19.7
2014 J.D. Martinez -2.3
(variance 17.4)

2012 T. Hunter 14.0
2013 R. Hunter -5.1
2014 T. Hunter -20.1
(variance 19.1)

2012 Y. Cespedes -13.3
2013 Y. Cespedes 9.9
2014 Y. Cespedes 11.4
(variance 24.7)

2012 A. Dirks -11.7
2013 A. Dirks 13.3
(variance = 25.0)

2006 C. Granderson 13.0
2007 C. Granderson 14.7
2008 C. Granderson -11.8
(variance 26.5)

2012 A. Gose 4.4
2013 A. Gose -22.2
2014 A. Gose 20.8
(variance 43.0)

2012 DET OF -7.3 (Boesch in RF)
2013 DET OF -1.1
2014 DET OF -9.8


First, UZR is a component of WAR. UZR is a highly volatile stat, especially at lower sample rates. Even one year's worth of data can be misleading. A player can change by 20 runs or more in 1 year alone. Does this mean he was 20 runs worse? I don't believe that is the case. Each one of the above listed OFers had at least a 6 run difference from one year to the next. Of the players listed, only Rajai Davis had a consistent 3 years worth of data.

As a general statement, I will agree that Hunter regressed in 2014. I don't believe it was by 15 runs (which UZR/150 suggests). Just like I do not believe J.D. Martinez some how improved his defense by 17 runs.

3 year's worth of UZR/150 data will give you a truer picture of the defense, then fixating on one or two year's worth of data.

The funny thing about the URZ / 150 data you posted is for the two players that I watched the most (A Jax and Hunter) their URZ data is right in line with what my eyes told me. I thought both regressed rapidly over the past few seasons.
 
When victor missed a whole season remember how bad he was for most of the following year at the plate till he got going? And thats a .300 hitter, I think its asking alot for Iglesias to do the same as Victor

I know. I'm just going against the grain. I wan't him to succeed so bad..that defense alone though is worth a spot. Ideally if he can bat .250 with some type of walk rate I'd be happy.
 
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