Loss is a positive

bdemil1 · Jul 23, 2015

It's a blessing we lost. This is the final straw. We can now be sellers and get prospects for Price and Cespesdes.

tigerfan2272 · Jul 23, 2015

It is not a blessing, rebuilding is a very difficult process. Tell the teams we plundered how well our prospects worked out for them, I'm sure some Marlins fans were happy to be sellers and get prospects. I'm sure A's fans this year were happy to be sellers and get prospects but the fact is very few rebuilds hit the way you dream them to and it could be a long time until the Tigers are back in a position where they used to be which is just all around sad.

tigerfan2272 · Jul 23, 2015

(I do get what you are saying though it is better to get something for all of these players than nothing and still not contend I just think when you can win you probably should)

Mitchrapp · Jul 23, 2015

Unless I see someone being traded or DD says "we're selling" I don't believe it.

Thumb · Jul 23, 2015

tigerfan2272 said:
It is not a blessing, rebuilding is a very difficult process. Tell the teams we plundered how well our prospects worked out for them, I'm sure some Marlins fans were happy to be sellers and get prospects. I'm sure A's fans this year were happy to be sellers and get prospects but the fact is very few rebuilds hit the way you dream them to and it could be a long time until the Tigers are back in a position where they used to be which is just all around sad.

Yet we are going to have to rebuild anyways, better to do so while some of our high paid aging players are still viable no?

Being buyers this year would not change the fact that we are going in to rebuild mode whether we like it or not, we have simply depleted our resources and need to replace them.

dubbsco · Jul 23, 2015

I agree. I get annoyed with some of the fans that are win at all costs, when the writing was on the wall.

I got blasted on the Michigan board when Michigan beat Illinois several years back with Rich Rod, 58-57 or whatever the hell that score was. And when they lost in the bowl game to Miss State, I rejoiced. Some speculated that if RR would have won that game, he would have been given another year. Sometimes a loss will result in change.

tigermud · Jul 23, 2015

I think the Tigers have put up a good fight lately but it's still just not good enough...it's time to look towards next year I'm afraid..

tigerfan2272 · Jul 23, 2015

Thumb said:
Yet we are going to have to rebuild anyways, better to do so while some of our high paid aging players are still viable no?

Being buyers this year would not change the fact that we are going in to rebuild mode whether we like it or not, we have simply depleted our resources and need to replace them.

I get that thinking and it is true I just always think if you can put a run together this year you do it because you never know what is happening in future years. I don't think tossing away any current season is necessarily a good thing but there are benefits like what you mentioned.

tigerfan2272 · Jul 23, 2015

I also don't want that to sound like I think they can still put a run together because that ship has sailed and I am all for selling Price and Cespedes etc at this point but I'm not thrilled about it

bdemil1 · Jul 23, 2015

tigerfan2272 said:
It is not a blessing, rebuilding is a very difficult process. Tell the teams we plundered how well our prospects worked out for them, I'm sure some Marlins fans were happy to be sellers and get prospects. I'm sure A's fans this year were happy to be sellers and get prospects but the fact is very few rebuilds hit the way you dream them to and it could be a long time until the Tigers are back in a position where they used to be which is just all around sad.

It's a blessing because the team we have now will never do it. Not saying it's a sure thing but we need some prospects, period. By the way we're only a couple of moves a way from contending next year.

kingofdetroit57 · Jul 24, 2015

I don't see us as "rebuilding" regardless of being buyers, sellers, or standing pat. The Tigers will "retool" and should compete next year and beyond. We will still have a very good core with Miggy, VMart, Kinsler, Iggy, Castellanos, McCann, JD, and Gose all signed. We'll have lots of money coming off the books via Nathan, Price, Cespedes, Pasta, Soria, Avila, Davis, Joba, and Gorzellany. I think the total is north of $65mil for that group. If we spent the bulk of the budget on starting and relief pitching, the 2016 team would look pretty damn good.

We may not want to spend the $200mil that's likely needed to keep Price here, but there are guys like Greinke, Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister, Latos, Haren, Kazmir, and others who could help a lot. We could probably get two or more of them for the cost of Price.

This is the 2016 free agent list from MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016-mlb-free-agents.html

Rebbiv · Jul 24, 2015

kingofdetroit57 said:
I don't see us as "rebuilding" regardless of being buyers, sellers, or standing pat. The Tigers will "retool" and should compete next year and beyond. We will still have a very good core with Miggy, VMart, Kinsler, Iggy, Castellanos, McCann, JD, and Gose all signed. We'll have lots of money coming off the books via Nathan, Price, Cespedes, Pasta, Soria, Avila, Davis, Joba, and Gorzellany. I think the total is north of $65mil for that group. If we spent the bulk of the budget on starting and relief pitching, the 2016 team would look pretty damn good.

We may not want to spend the $200mil that's likely needed to keep Price here, but there are guys like Greinke, Zimmerman, Cueto, Fister, Latos, Haren, Kazmir, and others who could help a lot. We could probably get two or more of them for the cost of Price.

This is the 2016 free agent list from MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016-mlb-free-agents.html

I will state this again. We have $111.8 MIL tied to just 5 players in 2016. We have another 8 players that are arbitration eligible, including J.D. and Iggy. Their total is $8.75 Mil and they easily triple that number for 2016. So we then would have a payroll of $138 Mil for just 13 players. We need 12 players to fill the roster. Say 6 were for the league minimum, that brings us to about $142 Mil. I doubt we spend an additional $24 Mil on payroll, so you are not going to get any decent starting pitcher and still sign 5 more guys.

Additionally, anyone that links Castellanos and Gose with the words "very good" loses credibility in my books. I will give you McCann, but I for one am not sold on him.

dubbsco · Jul 24, 2015

Some reports have surfaced that the Tigers won't be matching what Price wants next year. If that's true, what's the hold up? You aren't winning this year, get him out of town and get some value.

kingofdetroit57 · Jul 24, 2015

Rebbiv said:
I will state this again. We have $111.8 MIL tied to just 5 players in 2016. We have another 8 players that are arbitration eligible, including J.D. and Iggy. Their total is $8.75 Mil and they easily triple that number for 2016. So we then would have a payroll of $138 Mil for just 13 players. We need 12 players to fill the roster. Say 6 were for the league minimum, that brings us to about $142 Mil. I doubt we spend an additional $24 Mil on payroll, so you are not going to get any decent starting pitcher and still sign 5 more guys.

Additionally, anyone that links Castellanos and Gose with the words "very good" loses credibility in my books. I will give you McCann, but I for one am not sold on him.

You are cherry picking words from my reply and misconstruing them. I didn't say Castellanos and Gose were "very good", I said the returning core, which happens to include Castellanos and Gose... along with Miggy, VMart, JD, etc., was "very good". Those three alone would make for one of the best 3-4-5 combos in the game, which would certainly be part of our returning core which I was referring to.

At this point, I think Nick stinks, but he's very young and he's showing a bit more with the bat lately. I don't see his defense working out on the infield, and I'm not sure his bat will end up warranting a starting corner OF spot. I think there's a chance he could get shifted back to LF in a year or two or perhaps traded off elsewhere. He's still only 23 and under team control through 2020, so he's got a lot of value.

I think Gose is shaping up to be a good to very good player. He's a +2.6 WAR this season with positive dWAR and oWAR, so stats would support that belief. Could be a one year thing, but I see a lot to like. Very fast, strong defender, great arm, and he's actually hitting. Plus he's a shade under 25 and under team control until 2020. You've hated Gose since day one, so I'm probably wasting my time trying to convince you otherwise.

On the payroll topic, I'm not convinced that Mr. I is going to reel back the spending. In fact, I'd be surprised if he did. He's beyond rich, he covets a World Series ring, and he's probably only got a short amount of time left on this earth. Until he goes broke, gives up on his dream, or passes on control or life, he's probably going to keep spending more than he probably should. It's likely to get pretty ugly at some point for us, but I don't think that's going to be next season. Could be completely wrong on this, but I just don't see that dramatic shift happening right now.

kingofdetroit57 · Jul 24, 2015

dubbsco said:
Some reports have surfaced that the Tigers won't be matching what Price wants next year. If that's true, what's the hold up? You aren't winning this year, get him out of town and get some value.

There's still a week left to decide what to do, and the deadline usually pushes the top flight deals. I really don't think we're making a comeback to contend this year, and I don't think Price will be back next year, so trading him soon probably makes the most sense. That said, we would get compensatory picks if he's kept here (a pick may make more sense for a future rebuild than a present retool), we'd still have a puncher's chance to get in if he's around versus not being here (face it, we have almost nothing behind Price and Sanchez right now), and it would probably be a good PR/economic move in the short run to give fans and players hope rather than selling everything off. If the Tigers sell, attendance will drop dramatically, which means gate sales drop, merchandise and concessions drop, the brand value takes a little hit, and so on. Heck, there's a chance that Mr. I choosing to keep his stars could create some loyalty factor that convinces Price or someone else that they want to be here going forward. Players want committed ownership that will spend and fight to be competitive, so standing pat or buying when all signs say sell may have benefits that we'll never really see. This is a much more complex equation than most of us see it as. We view it from what we see on the field and in the standings, but there are many different motives in play here.

Rebbiv · Jul 24, 2015

kingofdetroit57 said:
You are cherry picking words from my reply and misconstruing them. I didn't say Castellanos and Gose were "very good", I said the returning core, which happens to include Castellanos and Gose... along with Miggy, VMart, JD, etc., was "very good". Those three alone would make for one of the best 3-4-5 combos in the game, which would certainly be part of our returning core which I was referring to.

At this point, I think Nick stinks, but he's very young and he's showing a bit more with the bat lately. I don't see his defense working out on the infield, and I'm not sure his bat will end up warranting a starting corner OF spot. I think there's a chance he could get shifted back to LF in a year or two or perhaps traded off elsewhere. He's still only 23 and under team control through 2020, so he's got a lot of value.

I think Gose is shaping up to be a good to very good player. He's a +2.6 WAR this season with positive dWAR and oWAR, so stats would support that belief. Could be a one year thing, but I see a lot to like. Very fast, strong defender, great arm, and he's actually hitting. Plus he's a shade under 25 and under team control until 2020. You've hated Gose since day one, so I'm probably wasting my time trying to convince you otherwise.

On the payroll topic, I'm not convinced that Mr. I is going to reel back the spending. In fact, I'd be surprised if he did. He's beyond rich, he covets a World Series ring, and he's probably only got a short amount of time left on this earth. Until he goes broke, gives up on his dream, or passes on control or life, he's probably going to keep spending more than he probably should. It's likely to get pretty ugly at some point for us, but I don't think that's going to be next season. Could be completely wrong on this, but I just don't see that dramatic shift happening right now.

Let's start out by saying I do not hate any player. What I didn't like was trading a great young player in Devon Travis for a marginal player in Gose.

Now, the break out of Gose's 2015 stats:

Home = .310 BAVG .363 OBP .432 SLG .795 OPS 13.1 PA/BB

Away = .235 BAVG .267 OBP .322 SLG .589 OPS 24.0 PA/BB

vs RHP = .293 BAVG .337 OBP .409 SLG .746 OPS 16.3 PA/BB

vs LHP = .143 BAVG .200 OBP .179 SLG .379 OPS 15.0 PA/BB

Gose Career Stats

Home = .269 BAVG .333 OBP .388 SLG .721 OPS 13.5 PA/BB

Away = .224 BAVG .280 OBP .305 SLG .585 OPS 14.5 PA/BB

vs RHP = .260 BAVG .323 OBP .371 SLG .694 OPS 13.0 PA/BB

vs LHP = .196 BAVG .237 OBP .250 SLG .487 OPS 22.9 PA/BB

Basically, he cannot hit lefthanded pitchers nor hit on the road. Is his home splits in Comerica this year what he is capable of or is it just a fluke? Because all his prior stats, including the minors, show his Comerica stats are a fluke. But let's move on.

Of 31 MLB CFers with at least 250 Plate Appearances, he is 19th in WAR, primarily due to his offense. The offense that might be skewed by a fluke performance in Comerica park.

He was cited to be a defensive wizard. Yet, of CFers with at least 500 Innings in CF (26 qualify), he is 15th in UZR/150 and tied 11th in DRS. IMHO, based on these stats he has under performed defensively.

And back on the payroll topic. In case you haven't read enough articles about it. Chris Illitch is said to be running more of the Illitch Holdings business and pappa Illitch probably has very little inclination to counter what son does. And it is said that Chris is positioning the franchise for a possible sell. DD not signed past this year is partly why this could be a very strong possibility. Any new owner would want their own GM in charge. Additionally, you would not take on anymore long term salary obligations if this is the case. So signing Price or any other player long term isn't going to happen if selling the team is in the background. Granted, to this point it is speculation. But it has more merit than some fan's speculation based on what happened in the past.

gotime909 · Jul 24, 2015

Just because Chris Illitch runs more of the day to day operations doesn't mean that Mike Illitch doesn't have the final say in the overall direction.

kingofdetroit57 · Jul 24, 2015

Rebbiv said:
Let's start out by saying I do not hate any player. What I didn't like was trading a great young player in Devon Travis for a marginal player in Gose.

Now, the break out of Gose's 2015 stats:

Home = .310 BAVG .363 OBP .432 SLG .795 OPS 13.1 PA/BB

Away = .235 BAVG .267 OBP .322 SLG .589 OPS 24.0 PA/BB

vs RHP = .293 BAVG .337 OBP .409 SLG .746 OPS 16.3 PA/BB

vs LHP = .143 BAVG .200 OBP .179 SLG .379 OPS 15.0 PA/BB

Gose Career Stats

Home = .269 BAVG .333 OBP .388 SLG .721 OPS 13.5 PA/BB

Away = .224 BAVG .280 OBP .305 SLG .585 OPS 14.5 PA/BB

vs RHP = .260 BAVG .323 OBP .371 SLG .694 OPS 13.0 PA/BB

vs LHP = .196 BAVG .237 OBP .250 SLG .487 OPS 22.9 PA/BB

Basically, he cannot hit lefthanded pitchers nor hit on the road. Is his home splits in Comerica this year what he is capable of or is it just a fluke? Because all his prior stats, including the minors, show his Comerica stats are a fluke. But let's move on.

Of 31 MLB CFers with at least 250 Plate Appearances, he is 19th in WAR, primarily due to his offense. The offense that might be skewed by a fluke performance in Comerica park.

He was cited to be a defensive wizard. Yet, of CFers with at least 500 Innings in CF (26 qualify), he is 15th in UZR/150 and tied 11th in DRS. IMHO, based on these stats he has under performed defensively.

And back on the payroll topic. In case you haven't read enough articles about it. Chris Illitch is said to be running more of the Illitch Holdings business and pappa Illitch probably has very little inclination to counter what son does. And it is said that Chris is positioning the franchise for a possible sell. DD not signed past this year is partly why this could be a very strong possibility. Any new owner would want their own GM in charge. Additionally, you would not take on anymore long term salary obligations if this is the case. So signing Price or any other player long term isn't going to happen if selling the team is in the background. Granted, to this point it is speculation. But it has more merit than some fan's speculation based on what happened in the past.

Can you admit that you hated the Gose trade more because you've wanted Kinsler gone since he arrived than because you really loved Travis as a player? Not trying to bicker with you, but you clearly dislike Kinsler based on many of your other posts and Travis was probably the closest one to making a Kinsler departure possible.

On the trade itself, we sorely needed at CF and had decent organizational depth at 2B behind a guy who is relatively untradeable in Kinsler because of Fielder money associated with him. The trade made sense from a need perspective, even if you didn't like the cost and/or return.

On Gose, I couldn't tell you what his future holds. Don't own a crystal ball. Maybe he's evolving as a hitter with new/better coaching. Lord knows JD and Iggy both have since getting here. Dunno. I completely understand the skepticism based on the skewed splits though. I said as much in my last reply that it could be a fluke.

I also hear the whispers that Chris Ilitch is running the show, but not sure I buy that. If he is, I sure haven't seen much change payroll and approach-wise. I think Mr. I is still the final decision maker. It's his money, his team, and his dream to get a ring before he's gone. Now, there's a reasonable chance that he's ill. Sure seemed like he was a year or two ago (I think he admitted he was, but didn't elaborate further), and he's still rarely seen or heard from now. If (big IF) they are gearing up to sell, I can't see it happening while Mr. I is around and has his faculties, but maybe that day is closer than we realize. I also don't see a big reason for the Ilitch family to sell since they are in the entertainment business. The Wings, Tigers, Fox, and Motor City Casino make up a very large portion of their wealth and all are closely centered in the heart of a quickly improving city. They are good, appreciating investments. The only real reason for them to sell is because they have other interests. That could be the case, but it seems somewhat doubtful given that they are pouring a ton of time and money into building a new arena for their other sports franchise. BTW, they are renovating the Fox and building a new Little Caesars HQ right behind it, so they are investing even more right in the vicinity of Comerica Park.

Rebbiv · Jul 25, 2015

kingofdetroit57 said:
Can you admit that you hated the Gose trade more because you've wanted Kinsler gone since he arrived than because you really loved Travis as a player? Not trying to bicker with you, but you clearly dislike Kinsler based on many of your other posts and Travis was probably the closest one to making a Kinsler departure possible.

On the trade itself, we sorely needed at CF and had decent organizational depth at 2B behind a guy who is relatively untradeable in Kinsler because of Fielder money associated with him. The trade made sense from a need perspective, even if you didn't like the cost and/or return.

On Gose, I couldn't tell you what his future holds. Don't own a crystal ball. Maybe he's evolving as a hitter with new/better coaching. Lord knows JD and Iggy both have since getting here. Dunno. I completely understand the skepticism based on the skewed splits though. I said as much in my last reply that it could be a fluke.

I also hear the whispers that Chris Ilitch is running the show, but not sure I buy that. If he is, I sure haven't seen much change payroll and approach-wise. I think Mr. I is still the final decision maker. It's his money, his team, and his dream to get a ring before he's gone. Now, there's a reasonable chance that he's ill. Sure seemed like he was a year or two ago (I think he admitted he was, but didn't elaborate further), and he's still rarely seen or heard from now. If (big IF) they are gearing up to sell, I can't see it happening while Mr. I is around and has his faculties, but maybe that day is closer than we realize. I also don't see a big reason for the Ilitch family to sell since they are in the entertainment business. The Wings, Tigers, Fox, and Motor City Casino make up a very large portion of their wealth and all are closely centered in the heart of a quickly improving city. They are good, appreciating investments. The only real reason for them to sell is because they have other interests. That could be the case, but it seems somewhat doubtful given that they are pouring a ton of time and money into building a new arena for thech.ir other sports franchise. BTW, they are renovating the Fox and building a new Little Caesars HQ right behind it, so they are investing even more right in the vicinity of Comerica Park.

Once again, we somehow get back to Kinsler? And again, I do NOT hate any player and I certainly could see where my objections come of across as such.

1. This team needs a LH power hitter and they traded one in Fielder and got a RH bat in return. The team has always been RH heavy. We the reluctance to pursue a LH power bat?

2. Kinsler's splits in TEX showed Arlington favoritism. And his defensive metrics were underwhelming prior to the trade. Additionally, Kinsler does not hit RH pitching very well. And we were going to pay him $16 Mil for MLB average production for a 2B.

3. The trade, especially we Detroit sending an additional $30 Mil should have netted more. Some of thought that TEX should have at least included a mid level reliever.

Bottom line, in both cases, it isn't the player but the value. And talk about hatred, there are quite a few on here that hated Fielder.

kingofdetroit57 · Jul 25, 2015

Rebbiv said:
Once again, we somehow get back to Kinsler? And again, I do NOT hate any player and I certainly could see where my objections come of across as such.

1. This team needs a LH power hitter and they traded one in Fielder and got a RH bat in return. The team has always been RH heavy. We the reluctance to pursue a LH power bat?

2. Kinsler's splits in TEX showed Arlington favoritism. And his defensive metrics were underwhelming prior to the trade. Additionally, Kinsler does not hit RH pitching very well. And we were going to pay him $16 Mil for MLB average production for a 2B.

3. The trade, especially we Detroit sending an additional $30 Mil should have netted more. Some of thought that TEX should have at least included a mid level reliever.

Bottom line, in both cases, it isn't the player but the value. And talk about hatred, there are quite a few on here that hated Fielder.

The Fielder signing was a bad one on a number of fronts. We were lucky to find anybody to bail us out of it. I'm not gonna get too upset about us not getting a mid-level reliever back since most of us viewed Fielder as completely untradeable given the size and length of contract we gave him.

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