There's been a lot of debate about whether or not the Detroit Tigers should call up Kevin McGonigle. McGonigle is as advanced of a hitting prospect as there is, and with the Tigers offense struggling lately and Colt Keith now out, it's a legit question. Here's one opinion.
MLB Pipeline releases their top prospect lists every year, and from 2011-2020, there were 32 different hitters listed among their top 5 prospects of each season. The non-weighted avg OPS of those 32 players in their first 25 MLB games was .751, which is pretty respectable.
Of those 32, the average month that a player debuted was in June. Only 10 of them debuted in August or later. Of those 10, only 7 were with teams in the middle of a pennant race. The non-weighted average OPS of those 7 in their first 25 MLB games was .732, again not bad.
That avg debut month of June is important. Some of it is service time shenanigans, but teams can call up prospects in Aug/Sep + still keep 6 yrs of team control. Teams historically have not called up their top prospects at the end of the year in the middle of a pennant race.
Some have pointed to McGonigle's plate discipline as a factor in calling him up now + it's a fair point.The player most often comped to McGonigle is Alex Bregman, for good reason.In 2016, Houston was in the middle of a pennant race, and called up Bregman on July 25th.
Kevin McGonigle Age 20 (A,+A,AA).305/.408/.583, 19 HR, 14.9 BB%, 11.6 K%, 1.28 BB/K, .278 ISO, .447 wOBA, 182 wRC+
Alex Bregman Age 22 (AA,AAA).306/.406/.580, 20 HR, 12.8 BB%, 10.3 K%, 1.24 BB/K, .274 ISO, .431 wOBA, 178 wRC+Bregman's 1st 25 MLB games: .229/.287/.381
Baseball is also more than just what you do at the plate, + the consensus is that McGonigle's bat is a little ahead of his glove right now. In the playoffs every out matters; it would be understandable if Detroit was leery about putting an unproven glove out in the infield.
Overall DET's reasoning may be something like this:
1. They don't want to put K-Mac in a pennant race this late, which is understandable for many reasons. Teams historically haven't promoted prospects like that.
2. Defense matters in Oct; they want their best D out there.
While some have fairly questioned some of Scott Harris' moves, the consensus is that DET's developmental team led by Ryan Garko is in a good spot. They have the most expertise of anyone + they also have the most data. In my opinion they've earned the benefit of the doubt.
Last but not least.Top 5 fWAR from 2016-2025: 1st 25 games MLB career
Aaron Judge: .177/.258/.316 (.574 OPS)
Mookie Betts: .247/.337/.407 (.744 OPS)
Francisco Lindor: .223/.257/.311 (.568 OPS)
José Ramírez: .162/.205/.216 (.421 OPS)
Freddie Freeman: .153/.153/.282 (.435 OPS)
Joe Rampe
