Verlander Velocity Watch

[deathroh]

A whole lot of people who want farts to smell like roses in here. Comparing me to Chica is absolutely laughable. Chica made stupid arguments about Verlander not being an Ace in the face of absolutely all evidence to the contrary. I, on the other hand, simply point out one, simple, plainly obvious fact to everyone with two eyes and a brain and I get jumped on for "not getting on the bandwagon" I suppose because that's really the only thing that makes sense. I guess people really don't want their perfect images of JV disturbed in any way.

Fact is, his velocity is down, there is absolutely no disputing that, if you dispute that, well then I guess there's really no hope for your impartiality.

Fact is also plainly evidence throughout the history of pitching that lower velocity leads to negatives results for almost every pitcher ever in categories like K rate, HR/FB rate, and the like.

Fact is further that if those stats get worse pitching stats also get worse.

You can choose to believe this is not a concern. In fact at his current velocity it might not be. He might still be one of the top 5 pitchers in the league throwing 93-94 on average. However, a sudden dramatic decrease in a fastball is troublesome both because 1. it signifies possible injury 2. it could signify another problem that could lead to further fastball decreases 3. he's 30 and he could simply just be getting older and his FB velocity might continue to trend downward.

You might just want to believe against all the odds that JV is immune to pitching effectiveness decreases despite losing some velocity but I don't think that is reasonable.

As for rooting for JV to fail, are you serious? You can't possibly be that big a twat?

I want him to succeed as much as anyone, I hope he gets his full velocity back as that will inspire more confidence from me. He's still a top pitcher at 93-94 but I worry about whether he's "the best" at those levels. And I'm justified in that concern because the Tigers just gave him a lot of years and big money to pay him as "the best".

I'm not sure you have a handle on what is typical. Verlander averaged under 95 in 18 of his 33 starts last year, including 7 of his first 8.

Also, Verlander had less velocity last year than in any other seaon of his career. I guess velocity doesn't correlate with effective pitching quite as STRONGLY as you believe.

 

[byco42]

A whole lot of people who want farts to smell like roses in here. Comparing me to Chica is absolutely laughable. Chica made stupid arguments about Verlander not being an Ace in the face of absolutely all evidence to the contrary. I, on the other hand, simply point out one, simple, plainly ....

Didn't read a word.

 

[Mitchrapp]

TOJ, JV did say he got a later start. Personally, I would hold judgement until around/after the all-star break and see what his velocity is at that point in time.

and to a few here, Tigersofjustice has been a knowledgeable regular Tigers poster from years ago at espn....

Knowledgeable people say dumb things sometimes.

 

[kalinecountry]

Knowledgeable people say dumb things sometimes.

We should know.....despite the few 'everywhere' who think they never do.

 

[byco42]

ToJ has got a wolf by the ears and he's not asking for help to let it go.

 

[Mitchrapp]

We should know.....despite the few 'everywhere' who think they never do.

We all do..but he's coming off as we should follow his thinking without acknowledging the fact what JV has said and its been posted several times on what JV said.

 

[kalinecountry]

ToJ has got a wolf by the ears and he's not asking for help to let it go.

and so do you.

 

[kalinecountry]

We all do..but he's coming off as we should follow his thinking without acknowledging the fact what JV has said and its been posted several times on what JV said.

yes, I agree with you here. Just appears like a groupgangon.

 

[byco42]

and so do you.

Me? Warum?

 

[Thumb]

and to a few here, Tigersofjustice has been a knowledgeable regular Tigers poster from years ago at espn....

I don't think anyone here thinks otherwise. And sometimes text incorrectly displays the tone of a conversation.

We are just having differences of opinion, these things happen at times even between people who normally get along most of the time, but in the end we all want the same thing; for the Tigers and Verlander to do well.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Roger Clemens threw 100 mph early in his career, he was a much better pitcher later throwing 93-95. JV's slider is getting better and better and will be his go to strike out pitch in years to come.

 

[kalinecountry]

I don't think anyone here thinks otherwise. And sometimes text incorrectly displays the tone of a conversation.

We are just having differences of opinion, these things happen at times even between people who normally get along most of the time, but in the end we all want the same thing; for the Tigers and Verlander to do well.

thanks Dave.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/5/6/4305256/justin-verlander-pitch-count
On Justin Verlander and pitch counts.
from blessyouboystigersblog

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...n-Verlander-s-conditioning-not-number-pitches
Tigers should count on Justin Verlander's conditioning, not the number of pitches.
from the detnews

 

[tigersofjustice]

We all do..but he's coming off as we should follow his thinking without acknowledging the fact what JV has said and its been posted several times on what JV said.

Eh, I don't think I ever suggested that. Though it probably did come through that I was surprised to see that literally nobody else seemed to have any concern what-so-ever, despite a decrease of over 1 mph on his average fastball. To me, that warrants at least some concern even for the most optimistic people. So, be concerned, don't be concerned, whatever, it just surprises me that I seem to be the only one who's a bit worried.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Someone also mentioned as to why I was not similarly concerned with Scherzer.

I am not as concerned about Scherzer because the Tigs did not just give him a giant mega deal.

Also Scherzer has history that is a bit odder. He's been around 93 for years, then last year he went up to 94, this year he's just under 93. Also his two seamer is still at 93 which is basically the same as last year. So to me it is a lot harder to definitively classify that as a drop in velocity.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Eh, I don't think I ever suggested that. Though it probably did come through that I was surprised to see that literally nobody else seemed to have any concern what-so-ever, despite a decrease of over 1 mph on his average fastball. To me, that warrants at least some concern even for the most optimistic people. So, be concerned, don't be concerned, whatever, it just surprises me that I seem to be the only one who's a bit worried.

The reason why is that JV mentioned the reason, he was 2 months behind his routine. You gotta take his word for it.

 

[tigersofjustice]

JV's last start against Texas he was over 95 on average for the first time this year, in a huge increase from his previous levels. That's definitely encouraging.

 

[tomdalton22]

From ESPN

Justin Verlander's average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.2 mph last season to 92.5 mph this season. Batters are hitting .301 in at-bats ending in that pitch, the highest average he has allowed in the last five season. Batters have hit a line drive on 28 percent of Verlander's fastballs they put in play this season, nine percentage points more from his percentage last season (19 percent).

 

[byco42]

From ESPN

Justin Verlander's average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.2 mph last season to 92.5 mph this season. Batters are hitting .301 in at-bats ending in that pitch, the highest average he has allowed in the last five season. Batters have hit a line drive on 28 percent of Verlander's fastballs they put in play this season, nine percentage points more from his percentage last season (19 percent).

,

First, ESPN's stats do not match with Fangraphs (PITCH F/X), which measure a 1.2 delta in his FB. The movement on his FB has not changed appreciably, but the effectiveness of it in getting hitters out has. Presently the weighted value of the FB is below zero. His BABIP is .345 to date, that's way out of alignment from seasons past.

This is a location problem, not a velocity problem.

 

[tomdalton22]

,

First, ESPN's stats do not match with Fangraphs (PITCH F/X), which measure a 1.2 delta in his FB. The movement on his FB has not changed appreciably, but the effectiveness of it in getting hitters out has. Presently the weighted value of the FB is below zero. His BABIP is .345 to date, that's way out of alignment from seasons past.

This is a location problem, not a velocity problem.

What is a 1.2 delta?

I think BABIP is part luck and part due to the pitcher. If a pitcher has electric stuff and batters have trouble hitting him even the balls in play will more often be weak grounders and lazy pop ups.

JV has not been dominating like he has in the past 2 years. You rarely see him dial up the 98-100 MPH fast ball

 

[byco42]

What is a 1.2 delta?

Delta = change.