Draft Prospect Videos and Analysis

[cheeno]

Hey guys, as Lions fans we love the draft. I'm going to post some potential picks with video, their combine/pro day numbers and a few thoughts that jump off film to me for each potential pick. Feel free to argue with my analysis or post your own. If you have any prospects in mind that you would like me to look at or add...I take requests!

Taylor Decker

VS. Michigan

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SIaI9VJ9SVY

Vs. Michigan State

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-sJJJvtDLEE

By the numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/taylor-decker?id=2555206

My Analysis:

I watched the two videos above and a few more from this year and last. Honestly I'll be surprised if this guy goes in the first round. He plays with a wide base but his feet are slow, watch him move side to side and watch how defenders in the run and pass game slip by him. His anchor is so-so but he plays tall and his lack of upper body strength kills him. Defenders easily disengage in both the run and pass game. You should always see an olineman's arms when he's blocking. You don't see Deckers ever. He is good in the run game when he stays low and fires off directly at a target rather than sifting. He would fit best in a power blocking scheme, but again he needs to improve his upper body strength. I can't see enough pass footage on Decker to make a good judgement because of the Buckeye offense. I fear he will have trouble protecting a 7 step drop in the NFL.

 

[cheeno]

Jack Conklin

VS. Oregon

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cUrV2cgedtY

VS. OSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9v_tXNF0PaU

By the numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/Jack-Conklin?id=2555279

Analysis:

He has a mean streak that jumps out right away. He is always trying to scrap with defenders and finish blocks. He is a good run blocker and can make blocks on the line of scrimmage and at the second level. Despite that ability to make blocks off the line of scrimmage his ability to pull block is not quite as good. He is a good pass blocker against the bull rush but sometimes his anchor is lacking. Because of this he tends to lean forward when engaging a defender in pass pro and can be suceptable to speed, push-pull, and inside moves. Smart lineman who understands and tries to follow proper technique, this and his mean streak makes up for a lot of his shortcomings. Better than Decker but not by a wide margin. Solid starter in time but may struggle out of the gate.

 

[cheeno]

Reggie Ragland

VS Michigan State

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Da6jm19Khpg

VS Clemson

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SGXhueEly-o

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/reggie-ragland?id=2555169

Really like his lateral speed and better in coverage than advertised. Needs to turn his head in man coverage. With some improvement he can cover NFL TEs and be a three down MLB. Sometimes slow to read and react in the run game which allows blockers to get on him up field rather than in the hole. Tries to take on all blockers straight up rather than running through. Stops his feet on contact. Speedy blitzer both between the tackles and off the edge. More athletic than his combine numbers would lead you to believe. the Alabama line allowed him to roam free and play the whole field, that may not be the case in the pros unless he plays behind a great interior front.

 

[cheeno]

Kevin Dodd

VS Alabama

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APlMJ6uxUeg

VS FSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V6r5341qlaw

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/kevin-dodd?id=2555338

Analysis

His burst off the ball is not consistently quick. That could pose an issue in the NFL where tackles will vary their pass protection and short set him. He takes on blocks sometimes with his helmet/body even though he has some shock power in his hands when he uses them in the run game. He benefitted a lot from having Lawson on the other side, sometimes he was blocked by just a TE or FB which was a mistake because he beats them every time. That won't be a problem if he lines up on the other side of Ansah. I always look for at least one thing an edge rusher does best, with Dodd it is his active hands when rushing the passer. Sometimes he looks like he is covered in Teflon. He needs freedom in the run and pass game to take the inside route or slant. Can zone drop. High motor.

 

[mhughes0021]

Kevin Dodd

VS Alabama

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=APlMJ6uxUeg

VS FSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V6r5341qlaw

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/kevin-dodd?id=2555338

Analysis

His burst off the ball is not consistently quick. That could pose an issue in the NFL where tackles will vary their pass protection and short set him. He takes on blocks sometimes with his helmet/body even though he has some shock power in his hands when he uses them in the run game. He benefitted a lot from having Lawson on the other side, sometimes he was blocked by just a TE or FB which was a mistake because he beats them every time. That won't be a problem if he lines up on the other side of Ansah. I always look for at least one thing an edge rusher does best, with Dodd it is his active hands when rushing the passer. Sometimes he looks like he is covered in Teflon. He needs freedom in the run and pass game to take the inside route or slant. Can zone drop. High motor.

questions about Lawsons health probably pushed him back into rd 2. There will be a high value DE or DT in rd 2 there at our pick. Makes me want to go LT or Treadwell in rd 1 now.

 

[cheeno]

questions about Lawsons health probably pushed him back into rd 2. There will be a high value DE or DT in rd 2 there at our pick. Makes me want to go LT or Treadwell in rd 1 now.

You are right, those positions are deep and there is going to be some top rated players to add to our dline in round two. I still think they are enamoured with Butler though.

I plan on looking at Stanley and Treadwell next. Treadwell's game tape is pretty much a highlight reel. Those are two that would be on my wish list at 16. I came away less impressed with Decker and Conklin than I was at first glance.

 

[SoCalLions]

Jack Conklin

VS. Oregon

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cUrV2cgedtY

VS. OSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9v_tXNF0PaU

By the numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/Jack-Conklin?id=2555279

Analysis:

He has a mean streak that jumps out right away. He is always trying to scrap with defenders and finish blocks. He is a good run blocker and can make blocks on the line of scrimmage and at the second level. Despite that ability to make blocks off the line of scrimmage his ability to pull block is not quite as good. He is a good pass blocker against the bull rush but sometimes his anchor is lacking. Because of this he tends to lean forward when engaging a defender in pass pro and can be suceptable to speed, push-pull, and inside moves. Smart lineman who understands and tries to follow proper technique, this and his mean streak makes up for a lot of his shortcomings. Better than Decker but not by a wide margin. Solid starter in time but may struggle out of the gate.

I like Conklin, he reminds me of the Joe Staley.

 

[cheeno]

I like Conklin, he reminds me of the Joe Staley.

I think Conklin is going to be a solid starter in the league for a long time, but it is tough to tell how O tackles will adjust to the next level. He is the son of a high school coach and seems to be fundamentally sound and make the most of his abilities though.

 

[mhughes0021]

I think Conklin is going to be a solid starter in the league for a long time, but it is tough to tell how O tackles will adjust to the next level. He is the son of a high school coach and seems to be fundamentally sound and make the most of his abilities though.

Saw him being interview by svp. He looks small. ...like an average Joe. He's smart and has good feet and plays with Good leverage....but i hope he's strong enough to handle the left side.

 

[jdeb]

I think they're taking Vernon Butler.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Saw him being interview by svp. He looks small. ...like an average Joe. He's smart and has good feet and plays with Good leverage....but i hope he's strong enough to handle the left side.

What I like about Conklin is his mean streak, football IQ and the fact he has gotten significantly better each year he's played.

He went from Plainwell High School to MSU walk-on to 1st round pick in 4 years. He might take 8 games or so.....but he seems like the type of guy who will adjust and excel at any level.

 

[cheeno]

Vernon Butler

VS KSU and Rice

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ltL6872vGzs

VS MSST

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8kg-qHjucj4

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/vernon-butler?id=2555243

Analysis

Like Nick Fairley with a better motor. Huge man with an explosive first step and slippery shocking hands. Manhandles weaker guards with Suh-like strength. Tends to spin when stuffed at the line, can't do that in the NFL. Violent with his helmet, loves contact, CTE researchers dream. Great leverage, plays with long arms. Not great versus double teams Best when lined up a shade outside guards. Can get lazy in his technique late in games. Runs a good stunt.

 

[cheeno]

Ronnie Stanley

VS Texas

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bYq2bgtgmsI

VS USC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YX4hjonnRIc

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/ronnie-stanley?id=2555204

Analysis

Let me just say I came away unimpressed overall. My expectations were high because initially Stanley was touted as a top 5 pick. Let me say this his fundamentals as an olineman are on point. He pass blocks with a wide base and 8/10 he gets good position with his feet. In fact I never saw him get cleanly beat in pass pro. He can deliver a punch with long arms. He is very good at run blocking in space. That's the good. The bad. He has no mean streak whatsoever. Very little push off the line one on one in the run game with big dlinemen. A tendency to clutch and grab which could lead to holding penalties. Defensive players can disengage from his blocks relatively easy. All in all he along with Decker and Conklin are good but not great prospects. Out of the three if I was forced to choose I'd take Conklin as I think he is more balanced in the run/pass game. If pass pro was all we are looking for I may lean Stanley.

 

[SoCalLions]

If you have the time, I'd like to see evaluations on Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair, William Jackson III, and Darron Lee. I also read we had Shon Coleman and Jerald Hawkins in for pre-draft visits for possible Day 2 guys.

 

[cheeno]

Andrew Billings

VS KSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t3DlGIy2T4o

VS Oklahoma

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LL7bLDIO6DY

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/andrew-billings?id=2555267

Analysis

By his combine numbers? Top 5 pick. By his game film? Second round at best. Dontari Poe was a similar conundrum and went in the first and has turned out to be a good player. His film is awful. Baylors D coordinator eats paint chips. He has Billings zone dropping 4 times on one film, in the first five plays in the other and slanting gaps about half the time. Sometime Billings strength shows up and other times he is spinning and getting pushed back by a double team of far weaker players 5 yards up field. So raw. Baylor's D line coach is joining the coordinator at the paint chip table for two. Billings looks like he doesn't know what he is supposed to do half the time. He is best when he is fresh. I thought he would wear down blockers and play his best snaps late in the game but he's the one that wears down. Early in the game he will literally throw you on your ass. Someone with a deep d line and a good d line coach will turn him into a good player. Don't draft him to fill an immediate need, but you could do worse than picking up this raw freak of nature.

 

[cheeno]

If you have the time, I'd like to see evaluations on Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair, William Jackson III, and Darron Lee. I also read we had Shon Coleman and Jerald Hawkins in for pre-draft visits for possible Day 2 guys.

Sure. I'll throw them on my list. Spriggs is a favourite of KC too and he is really rising up some boards.

 

[cheeno]

William Jackson III

VS FSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rNy9NqP2xw

VS Pitt

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lgw4RC3uT34

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/william-jackson iii?id=2555179

Analysis

Guys, he's going to take some time to develop. He reminds me a lot of Brandon Browner, the length helps, he's big out there on the corner. Browner took a long time to develop too starting out in the CFL. Browner found the right system in Seattle, a no. 2 corner on a team that could rush the passer and had great safeties backing him up. That's what Jackson is going to need. Honestly I would love to see him play safety. He has excellent down field ball skills - tall and rises to meet the ball at his highest point on deep balls, gets his head turned and often comes away with the pick. He has the speed to make up ground if he gets beat deep too. His problem is the short game, not great in press, and poor in and out of breaks. Some of that may be his football smarts, he doesn't anticipate routes well and that may be a film thing. Teryl Austin can fix that. He is not a great form tackler, doesn't take on blocks well, but that being said he's a willing hitter, doesn't like it, but has no problem doing it. I'm not taking him at 16. Again he may end up a safety somewhere but someone is putting his length at CB first to see if they can make it work. All in all solid number 2 CB if he properly develops. If you take away one thing from his film, those down field ball skills.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

William Jackson III

VS FSU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rNy9NqP2xw

VS Pitt

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lgw4RC3uT34

By the numbers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/william-jackson iii?id=2555179

Analysis

Guys, he's going to take some time to develop. He reminds me a lot of Brandon Browner, the length helps, he's big out there on the corner. Browner took a long time to develop too starting out in the CFL. Browner found the right system in Seattle, a no. 2 corner on a team that could rush the passer and had great safeties backing him up. That's what Jackson is going to need. Honestly I would love to see him play safety. He has excellent down field ball skills - tall and rises to meet the ball at his highest point on deep balls, gets his head turned and often comes away with the pick. He has the speed to make up ground if he gets beat deep too. His problem is the short game, not great in press, and poor in and out of breaks. Some of that may be his football smarts, he doesn't anticipate routes well and that may be a film thing. Teryl Austin can fix that. He is not a great form tackler, doesn't take on blocks well, but that being said he's a willing hitter, doesn't like it, but has no problem doing it. I'm not taking him at 16. Again he may end up a safety somewhere but someone is putting his length at CB first to see if they can make it work. All in all solid number 2 CB if he properly develops. If you take away one thing from his film, those down field ball skills.

I know when you're doing the evaluations you are try to be subjective and I appreciate your opinion......but I disagree on WJIII.

I think he is very similar to ..... Darius Slay. Fantastic athlete. Good coverage skills that will need a year to develop in the NFL. Currently has elite NFL ball skills. Fantastic read on the ball. Great jumps. Great breaks.

I would have zero problem with this pick at 16. I would still go OT.....but would be happy with this pick.

I wouldn't put him on an island with Jordy during his rookie year......and that is why I think it would be a great fit in Detroit. He wouldn't have to be the guy from day one. It would give the Lions the best pair of young CB's in the NFL.

I see his NFL career arch very similar to Slay. A year to develop and No. 1 CB status soon after that.

 

[cheeno]

Booger I'm glad we disagree, it gives us all the opportunity to go into WJ III's film in more detail. I'll post the time stamps of the plays that lead to my evaluation. As an aside I graded Slay a round 1 prospect after I saw his film versus Tennessee, I'll see if I can track that film down. He shut down Corderelle Patterson who was basically unstoppable in college (much less an impressive feat now). Patterson won just one rep where he beat Slay for a TD with a push off. That level of detail if I can find the vid hopefully will be my proof.

Now on to WJ III.

VS FSU

0:19

Wideout breaks off his route, WJ keeps bailing deep. He's about 10 yards away from the catch and then takes a bad angle on the tackle. I think he has the speed to break back on the ball but the fact that he still bails shows poor awareness or poor agility on that play. I lean awareness here.

0:56

Great coverage on his man. QB checks it down to the running back. Rather than setting the edge hard he takes on the wideouts block. Not a significant negative play here, nice block downfield by the WR.

1:03

Two guys jump the short route. The deep man is someone's and seeing that WJ is the wide CB I'd imagine it was him. This is reinforced by the way he turns on the jets (that speed, wow) and attempts a tackle but the WR easily shrugs him off.

1:53

His press gets easily beaten and the WR runs him off. He protects the goal line well though and makes a good tackle.

2:20

Great break on the ball to break up the pass. When the ball is in the air for awhile, deep balls he is a hawk.

2:34

Interception! Positive play right? Yes and no. The ball was horribly under thrown and WJ was beat by four steps here. A better throw and that is a long TD. The positive? Interception! Athletically turns his head and jumps in full sprint to come down with the ball.

3:42

Again great play on the ball to break up the long pass. Where is the play made? Deep down the field, again.

4:07

The whole secondary works together on this pick. WJ does a great job running with the WR and then passes him off perfectly to the safety at exactly the right time. He plays the slot corner's receiver over the top while the slot undercuts the receiver for the pick. The way he works with corners here again makes me think, why not try him at safety?

4:35

Not a great tackle, dives low with his head down but he's not afraid to fill.

4:51

Again gets beat on a short route. Not a big deal, people get beat on short routes but it is at the sticks and it is a first down completion. Needs better awareness there.

5:19

Again he gets beat underneath. This time he is 5 yards off and his break is poor. Beat once or twice on those short breaking routes fine. This is getting to be a habit.

5:27

This looks like a really great safety. He's a bit slow to get up but the other guy doesn't get up at all.

5:48

beat underneath again. Tight coverage but you can't get beat inside. Look at the down and distance. 3rd and 4. Needs better awareness.

6:17

4th and 10 and 30 seconds left. WJ gets the desperation int to seal the game. Good job but the situation helped dictate that pick. Still it shows up in the stat sheet.

Guys, if you don't feel like watching the film...understandable, hopefully I can be your proxy in that. If you would like though pick any of those time stamps and if you have a difference of opinion we can discuss what you see differently. I could break down WJs Pitt film but the weather is sloppy and frankly I think it contributed to some of his poor play. His film is worse that game. Now you may think I'm overly negative but if you have ever sat in a film room with a coach you'll know I'm not. There are no cheerleaders in the film room.

Hopefully this detailed breakdown gives you some insight into what I'm seeing when I watch any on these guys. Thanks to everyone who views/comments for your interest. I do this every year on my own, this year, inspired by some of our regular contributors I decided to share that with you all.

Here is the Slay film. I remember why I couldn't find it and it was because I didn't watch any film on Slay initially. I was looking for a Patterson video where he played against Jonathon Banks. Rather than Banks I came away impressed with Slay and Patterson I though was a lock. More than a few were wrong there. The play I mention at the beginning of the post where Patterson beats him for a TD is at 3:39. I thought holding his own against Corderelle at the time ment something and was super high on him.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ_qeWcDVvM

 

[mhughes0021]

I'm doing less breaking down film and more looking at the pile of shit we have competing for the #2 cb spot ;D