ESPN insider UM basketball preview

[mhughes0021]

Preview: Michigan WolverinesJohn Beilein's team enters the season among favorites to win Big TenUpdated: October 22, 2013, 4:03 PM ETBy Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

Can Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III and Nik Stauskas get Michigan back to the title game?

2013-14 Big Ten Projected Standings
1. Michigan | 2. Michigan State | 3. Ohio State | 4. Wisconsin | 5. Indiana | 6. Purdue | 7. Illinois | 8. Northwestern | 9. Iowa | 10. Penn State | 11. Minnesota | 12. Nebraska
Links to every conference

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Michigan Wolverines


2012-13: 31-8 (12-6)
In-conference offense: 1.12 points per possession (2nd)
In-conference defense: 1.02 points per possession (6th)

After Michigan matched the school record for victories and finished six points shy of a national title, Big Ten foes might be hoping that the resultant talent drain would be enough to bring the Wolverines back to the pack. But while John Beilein has to replace national player of the year Trey Burke and fellow NBA first-rounder Tim Hardaway Jr., the cupboard is far from bare in Ann Arbor. In fact, the Wolverines are well-positioned for their most sustained period of high-level success since the days of the Fab Five.

With plenty of star power and the nation's best offense, Michigan won its first 16 games and remained in the AP's top 10 all season. A 5-5 stretch during Big Ten play and a second-round exit in the conference tournament tempered NCAA expectations a bit, but with supporting players like Spike Albrecht, Mitch McGary and Nik Stauskas chipping in with spotlight March performances, Michigan nearly ran the table. Only a second-half comeback by Louisville's smothering defense kept the Wolverines from bringing home the school's second national championship.

Glenn Robinson III and McGary both return this season as the foundation for a deep and talented Michigan squad that could end up being every bit as good as last year. For that to happen, Beilein will be hoping for immediate impact from a pair of freshmen who, in the abstract, seem an awful lot like young versions of the players they will attempt to replace.

Headlining Michigan's 12th-ranked recruiting haul is wing Zak Irvin, the No. 22 player in ESPN's final 2013 rankings. He's the Hardaway in this equation, with the ability to score both with a smooth jumper and off the dribble. He also has the athletic foundation to be enough of a defensive factor to earn his coach's trust early.

Projected starting lineup
Pos. Name Year
C Mitch McGary Soph.
F Glenn Robinson III Soph.
F Zak Irvin Fr.
G Nik Stauskas Soph.
G Derrick Walton Jr. Fr.

The bigger shoes to fill are at the point, where 30th-ranked prospect Derrick Walton will compete with the scrappy Albrecht for a starting role. Michigan had the nation's lowest turnover rate in the Ken Pomeroy ratings last season, and it's worth noting that Burke's turnover percentage declined by more than 5 percent from his first season to his second. Walton's ability to make plays while taking care of the ball will determine how quickly he will be handed the keys to the Michigan offense.

If Irvin and Walton are able to provide the early-career impact of the departed stars, if not quite the immense production they provided last season, then Beilein's roster will have the upside to go with the surer bets provided by the return of Robinson and McGary.

For Robinson to take the leap from role player to team leader, he'll have to augment his considerable efficiency with increased volume. His 62.6 true shooting percentage was impressive, but he used just 15.2 percent of possessions while on the floor, per KenPom.com. Robinson's combo skills might again mark him as undersized 4 this season, depending on what kind of lineup Beilein decides to field, although there's been plenty of discussion about him transitioning to the 3. Either way, he'll need to improve his deep shot to go with an excellent off-the-dribble game if he wants to emerge as Michigan's go-to scorer.

McGary's improvement trend line pointed almost straight up as last season progressed, culminating in a star-making turn during March Madness. He put up 25 points and 14 boards in a Sweet 16 win over Kansas, one of his three tournament double-doubles, and he didn't falter until falling victim to foul trouble in the NCAA title game. McGary started just eight of 39 games as a freshman, but you can be sure he'll be a lineup fixture this time around. He was slowed by a balky back during the preseason, too.

If either or both of the aforementioned freshmen require a transitional season, which is no crime in what has been an elite conference the past few seasons, then role players Albrecht and Caris LeVert in the backcourt, as well as big men Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford, will assume more crucial roles. Michigan would still be good, but you'd expect the Wolverines' ceiling for the coming campaign to be a little bit lower.

Albrecht is an excellent deep shooter and posted Michigan's highest assist rate in the non-Burke class, but he had a relatively high turnover rate considering he was playing on the country's top ball-protection unit. He doesn't have the athletic upside or playmaking ability of Walton, but if the freshman isn't ready, Albrecht will contribute as an initiator and floor-spacer.

LeVert is more of a wild card as his first-year playing time was sporadic. He didn't shoot well during his short stints, but at 6-foot-6, he's got excellent size for the backcourt, and offseason reports on him have been promising. He could be the fallback plan if Irvin initially needs to transition as a bench player. Again, it would be good news for Michigan if the freshman eventually landed the more prominent role.

While Robinson and McGary are expected to flourish in newly expanded roles, the real breakout star for this Wolverines team could turn out to be Stauskas. The YouTube star shot 44 percent and led Michigan in made 3s as a freshman, and continued his torrid shooting in March, going 6-for-6 from deep to propel the Wolverines past Florida and into the Final Four. Offseason reports -- which often take on the whiff of old fisherman's tales -- are that Stauskas has added 15 pounds of muscle and six inches to his vertical leap. If so, and the uptick in athleticism allows Stauskas to create more of his own offense, he'll be a crucial part of the collective effort to absorb Burke and Hardaway's lost possessions.

The math on the Wolverines looks good, as they are a likely conference co-favorite with Michigan State, and with the new blend of talent coming into Beilein's offense-friendly system, Michigan might feature the Big Ten's most efficient attack.

With the sixth season of Beilein's Michigan tenure culminating in a high-profile tournament run and its star players moving on to NBA riches, it looks like the Wolverines will be hanging around the nation's elite hoops programs for the foreseeable future. On the recruiting trail, Michigan is one of the five finalists for five-star shooting guard Devin Booker. And late in the summer, news emerged that Australian prodigy Dante Exum also has the Wolverines on his final-five list. A presumed top-five pick, Exum's unique situation allows him to go straight to the NBA draft, or he could choose to play collegiately.

These are exciting times in Ann Arbor, and not because of what Brady Hoke is doing over in the Big House. Last season might have been a pinnacle of sorts for Michigan basketball, but Beilein has his team positioned for many more peaks than valleys in the years to come.

Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 1st

 

[beez]

Thanks man. Much appreciated.

 

[Michchamp]

I didn't realize Walton starting over Albrecht was that likely.

 

[deathroh]

Who knows how it's going to shake out, but I'd be surprised if Walton isn't either starting or at least getting more minutes by mid-december when the schedule heats up.

 

[Monster]

I'd prefer to see a starting 5 of....

Horford
McGary
GR3
Irvin
Walton/Spike - whoever is better. At this point, I'd say Spike until Walton gets real PT.

Stauskas and Levert both subbing in for the 2-3 spots on the floor as frequently as possible.

Morgan and Donnal coming in for both big man spots.

I keep seeing the same projection as posted, but they've worked too much on GR3's ball handling for me to believe he'll still play the 4. Perhaps when they go to a small lineup, but I'd say against most of the good B1G teams, he'll play the 3.

(Meant to post this response here, but I posted it in the roll call thread first)

 

[wheels002]

As odd as it sounds after losing 2 first round draft picks I really think we will be a deeper team than last year with more scoring ability.

 

[deathroh]

I'd prefer to see a starting 5 of....

Horford
McGary
GR3
Irvin
Walton/Spike - whoever is better. At this point, I'd say Spike until Walton gets real PT.

Stauskas and Levert both subbing in for the 2-3 spots on the floor as frequently as possible.

Morgan and Donnal coming in for both big man spots.

I keep seeing the same projection as posted, but they've worked too much on GR3's ball handling for me to believe he'll still play the 4. Perhaps when they go to a small lineup, but I'd say against most of the good B1G teams, he'll play the 3.

(Meant to post this response here, but I posted it in the roll call thread first)

Definitely will be interesting to see how Beilein fights his natural urges to go small. Personally I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[mhughes0021]

I'd prefer to see a starting 5 of....

Horford
McGary
GR3
Irvin
Walton/Spike - whoever is better. At this point, I'd say Spike until Walton gets real PT.

Stauskas and Levert both subbing in for the 2-3 spots on the floor as frequently as possible.

Morgan and Donnal coming in for both big man spots.

I keep seeing the same projection as posted, but they've worked too much on GR3's ball handling for me to believe he'll still play the 4. Perhaps when they go to a small lineup, but I'd say against most of the good B1G teams, he'll play the 3.

(Meant to post this response here, but I posted it in the roll call thread first)

agreed....i think horford needs to see the floor more. Stauskas or Irvin 2....situational. Id throw walton in right away so hes ready for all situations and to really lead come crunch time.

 

[beez]

Yeah, I'd like to see Walton right away..this team won't make it real deep with Spike as the starting PG (and it's poretty much inevitable that Walton takes the job at some point) so why not let the kid takes his lumps early before the major competition hits? Let him know that you've got the confidence in him to get the job done and that he'll be allowed to work through his mistakes as long as he improves.

 

[Michchamp]

Who knows how it's going to shake out, but I'd be surprised if Walton isn't either starting or at least getting more minutes by mid-december when the schedule heats up.

phew! I was bracing for you to post a bunch of Albrecht's stats and Walton's high school stats and call me an idiot for doubting that Walton would be the starter.

anyways, freely admitting I know almost nothing about Walton except that he was a highly touted recruit, and is on our roster for this season... I know a lot of people doubt Albrecht's upside potential but he seemed to defy a lot of expectations last year (mostly from this one guy I know who is one of those constant complainers when it comes to watching sports.)

 

[deathroh]

I'd say if Walton lives up to his billing from a talent and athleticism standpoint, and that's all your looking at, then it's a 80/20 split right from the start. But it will take some time to learn the offense and understand how all of the pieces fit together...and while there's merit to learning things under fire, I also think it will be beneficial to learn while sitting next to his coaches. Defense is always the other big issue with freshman, but early word out of practice has been encouraging in that regard.

I was a little higher on Spike than most, but that's pretty much always true for me when it comes to under the radar guys. But I have to agree that his upside is limited. If he can continue to shoot like last year he'll always have a role, and the backup pg role is in much better hands than it has been historically under Beilein, but he's very limited in what he can do. The main issue is when he does drive there is almost never a threat that he'll shoot. Defenders caught on to this last year and over played passing lanes, and I assume that will be a constant issue for him. I'm sure he'll at least make incremental improvements, but his size and frame tell me that he'll just be a guy that can knock down threes and baby sit the ball. Not to minimize that of course...both in importance to the team, and in comparison with his recruiting story.