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everyoneneedsasmil
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The other day, ESPN proposed 5 different trades for the #1 pick. I think only one is legitimately worth taking, two are worth considering (under specific circumstances), and the other two are just trash.
The one worth taking:
OKC sends Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 6th pick for the 1st pick. Others can disagree, but Shai is already a star player. He's on a really bad team, but he's essentially what you'd hope Cade becomes in the first place. He's big (thin, but tall), he's a great shooter and slasher, and he passes like a true PG. I'll give that Cade maybe has higher upside, but honestly we would be happy for Cade to just be that good. Add the 6th pick, and there's not really anything to lose. This is an odd trade in that I think OKC wouldn't actually agree to it.
Worth considering:
Houston sends the 2nd, 24th, and our own protected future pick in exchange for the 1st and 37th picks. This is a trade we'd make if the front office really believes someone else the best player in the draft. And that's it. If they think Cade is still the best, this isn't enough to move down for the second best.
Cleveland sends the 3rd pick and Darius Garland for the 1st pick. Like above, you only do this if you think there's little to no difference between Cade, Mobley, Green, and/or Suggs. Garland is a legimately good player, but not a star. If you think Green/Suggs/Mobley have just as good a chance of becoming superstars as Cade, then Garland becomes a fair prize for moving down. But, if you think like me that Cade is in a tier of his own, nobody on the Cavs moves the needle.
Garbage trades to fill out the column:
Golden State sends James Wiseman, the 7th pick, the 14th pick, and an unprotected 2022 pick for the 1st pick. This just doesn't make any sense. The 2022 pick is going to be a late first even if they don't get Cade. The 14th pick would be lucky (and to be fair, we got two really good players last year in the teens) to be more than a bench role player. The 7th pick is a MASSIVE drop-off even from the 4th pick. And Wiseman? It's not even clear his game translates to the modern NBA - he can't shoot, or handle the ball, or defend at a high level. Maybe he makes huge progress, but that no longer seems all that likely. The reality is that teams need superstars to contend. Nothing from what GS is sending screams superstar.
Orlando sends the 5th pick, the 8th pick, and Chuma Okeke for the 1st pick. This draft drops off a cliff after #4. Not to say 5 and 8 won't be good players, but the superstar prospects end there. Trading a good chance at a superstar (Cade) for two bad chances at a superstar (5 and 8) plus a young nobody (Okeke) is just bad math. The Pistons aren't trying to fill out a roster around a cornerstone player. They are still looking for their cornerstone. We have a better roster, but are in really the same place as Orlando. If they want this trade, it means it's probably bad for us.
The one worth taking:
OKC sends Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 6th pick for the 1st pick. Others can disagree, but Shai is already a star player. He's on a really bad team, but he's essentially what you'd hope Cade becomes in the first place. He's big (thin, but tall), he's a great shooter and slasher, and he passes like a true PG. I'll give that Cade maybe has higher upside, but honestly we would be happy for Cade to just be that good. Add the 6th pick, and there's not really anything to lose. This is an odd trade in that I think OKC wouldn't actually agree to it.
Worth considering:
Houston sends the 2nd, 24th, and our own protected future pick in exchange for the 1st and 37th picks. This is a trade we'd make if the front office really believes someone else the best player in the draft. And that's it. If they think Cade is still the best, this isn't enough to move down for the second best.
Cleveland sends the 3rd pick and Darius Garland for the 1st pick. Like above, you only do this if you think there's little to no difference between Cade, Mobley, Green, and/or Suggs. Garland is a legimately good player, but not a star. If you think Green/Suggs/Mobley have just as good a chance of becoming superstars as Cade, then Garland becomes a fair prize for moving down. But, if you think like me that Cade is in a tier of his own, nobody on the Cavs moves the needle.
Garbage trades to fill out the column:
Golden State sends James Wiseman, the 7th pick, the 14th pick, and an unprotected 2022 pick for the 1st pick. This just doesn't make any sense. The 2022 pick is going to be a late first even if they don't get Cade. The 14th pick would be lucky (and to be fair, we got two really good players last year in the teens) to be more than a bench role player. The 7th pick is a MASSIVE drop-off even from the 4th pick. And Wiseman? It's not even clear his game translates to the modern NBA - he can't shoot, or handle the ball, or defend at a high level. Maybe he makes huge progress, but that no longer seems all that likely. The reality is that teams need superstars to contend. Nothing from what GS is sending screams superstar.
Orlando sends the 5th pick, the 8th pick, and Chuma Okeke for the 1st pick. This draft drops off a cliff after #4. Not to say 5 and 8 won't be good players, but the superstar prospects end there. Trading a good chance at a superstar (Cade) for two bad chances at a superstar (5 and 8) plus a young nobody (Okeke) is just bad math. The Pistons aren't trying to fill out a roster around a cornerstone player. They are still looking for their cornerstone. We have a better roster, but are in really the same place as Orlando. If they want this trade, it means it's probably bad for us.
