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thewolverines24
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12:15 PM ET on CBS. Let the Madness begin!
KEYS
Dominate the offensive glass: It might seem counterintuitive looking at the raw numbers, but offensive rebounding feels like the area where Michigan can dominate this game and win. Not only is Michigan?s size advantage in the frontcourt significant, but CSU has also shown vulnerability on the defensive glass.
The Rams have allowed an offensive rebounding rate over 31.5% in seven games this year and lost four of those contests. San Diego State, in particular, abused the Rams on the offensive glass grabbing over 40% of its misses in all three games against CSU. It?s no secret that Brian Dutcher and Juwan Howard are close and I wouldn?t be surprised if Dutcher shared a few notes. If Michigan can rebound 40-plus percent of its misses on Thursday, it will have a chance to win the game.
Replacing DeVante? Jones: DeVante? Jones is out which will have a cascading impact on Michigan?s approach to this game. Generally speaking, the impact of one player tends to be overvalued when forecasting a game, but Jones has been terrific for the Wolverines over the last two months.
Expect Eli Brooks to play a lot of minutes on the ball running the offense, especially late in the game, but Brooks was already going to play 40 minutes on Thursday. Jones? 35-plus minutes will be divvied up between Frankie Collins, Kobe Bufkin and, I suspect, Terrance Williams.
I would estimate that the backcourt minutes to shake out something like this as a baseline:
Collins ? Brooks: 20
Brooks ? Bufkin: 14
Brooks ? Williams: 6
There are pros and cons to these different combinations, and the game will come down to managing the downside of each option. Frankie Collins has impressive on-court defensive numbers (Michigan?s defense is 10.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, per KenPom Plus) and could be effective as a drive-and-kick threat against a CSU defense that tends to over-help and switch aggressively. On the other hand, his shooting is a liability against double teams and his free-throw shooting negates some of his explosion to the basket.
Bufkin has struggled defensively at times this season, but won?t be in the highest-profile defensive matchup. The wildcard is whether he can hit open threes, and he?s only 8-of-25 on the year.
And Michigan still has Eli Brooks as either a ?break glass in case of emergency? or a reliable ?land the plane down the stretch? option late in the game. Brooks will have the ball late in any close games because he can be trusted to make decisions and make free throws ? something that can?t be said of anyone else in the backcourt at this point.
Terrance Williams at the two is a bit of a plug your nose option but CSU?s ?two-guard? is Kendle Moore, who plays primarily off the ball as a cutter and spot-up shooter despite his 6-foot frame. He?s No. 4 in ball screen pecking order (behind Stevens, Roddy and Tonje) and Michigan is probably going to be switching a lot of off-ball actions defensively anyway. Williams will probably see minutes at the two just because he?s experienced and can make adjustments to coaching and handle the NCAA Tournament pressure better than his freshman counterparts.
Play through the post: Losing DeVante? Jones is brutal, especially for a grad transfer who came to Michigan for this very moment, but this is a game that Michigan has to win inside out ? even if it had Jones in the starting lineup. Hunter Dickinson has to dominate this game. The double team might give him trouble ? and minutes for Collins provide an easy double target ? but he?s capable of having monster performance against this type of team. He just needs to go out and do it. Dickinson can impose his will on this game and if he plays an All-Ameican caliber game, then Michigan?s season has a chance to continue.
Make open threes: Colorado State?s defense gives up a lot of 3-point attempts and Michigan?s 3-point accuracy has been? tough to predict. I wouldn?t be surprised if Michigan went 8-of-14 from 3-point range or 2-of-17 on Thursday afternoon. Both feel entirely possible yet neither any more likely than the other. If Caleb Houstan has one of those days where he makes four threes, U-M suddenly has margin for error.
Throw different looks at David Roddy: Moussa Diabate, Terrance Williams and Brandon Johns are all in the right mold of players that you?d want to be able to throw at Roddy. No one will stop him, and Michigan has a real problem on its hands defensively when Roddy shifts to the five, but they can make his life difficult, or at least attempt to. I suspect we?ll see a lot of zone in this matchup as Michigan searches for any sort of offensive option that works.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Dominate the offensive glass: It might seem counterintuitive looking at the raw numbers, but offensive rebounding feels like the area where Michigan can dominate this game and win. Not only is Michigan?s size advantage in the frontcourt significant, but CSU has also shown vulnerability on the defensive glass.
The Rams have allowed an offensive rebounding rate over 31.5% in seven games this year and lost four of those contests. San Diego State, in particular, abused the Rams on the offensive glass grabbing over 40% of its misses in all three games against CSU. It?s no secret that Brian Dutcher and Juwan Howard are close and I wouldn?t be surprised if Dutcher shared a few notes. If Michigan can rebound 40-plus percent of its misses on Thursday, it will have a chance to win the game.
Replacing DeVante? Jones: DeVante? Jones is out which will have a cascading impact on Michigan?s approach to this game. Generally speaking, the impact of one player tends to be overvalued when forecasting a game, but Jones has been terrific for the Wolverines over the last two months.
Expect Eli Brooks to play a lot of minutes on the ball running the offense, especially late in the game, but Brooks was already going to play 40 minutes on Thursday. Jones? 35-plus minutes will be divvied up between Frankie Collins, Kobe Bufkin and, I suspect, Terrance Williams.
I would estimate that the backcourt minutes to shake out something like this as a baseline:
Collins ? Brooks: 20
Brooks ? Bufkin: 14
Brooks ? Williams: 6
There are pros and cons to these different combinations, and the game will come down to managing the downside of each option. Frankie Collins has impressive on-court defensive numbers (Michigan?s defense is 10.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, per KenPom Plus) and could be effective as a drive-and-kick threat against a CSU defense that tends to over-help and switch aggressively. On the other hand, his shooting is a liability against double teams and his free-throw shooting negates some of his explosion to the basket.
Bufkin has struggled defensively at times this season, but won?t be in the highest-profile defensive matchup. The wildcard is whether he can hit open threes, and he?s only 8-of-25 on the year.
And Michigan still has Eli Brooks as either a ?break glass in case of emergency? or a reliable ?land the plane down the stretch? option late in the game. Brooks will have the ball late in any close games because he can be trusted to make decisions and make free throws ? something that can?t be said of anyone else in the backcourt at this point.
Terrance Williams at the two is a bit of a plug your nose option but CSU?s ?two-guard? is Kendle Moore, who plays primarily off the ball as a cutter and spot-up shooter despite his 6-foot frame. He?s No. 4 in ball screen pecking order (behind Stevens, Roddy and Tonje) and Michigan is probably going to be switching a lot of off-ball actions defensively anyway. Williams will probably see minutes at the two just because he?s experienced and can make adjustments to coaching and handle the NCAA Tournament pressure better than his freshman counterparts.
Play through the post: Losing DeVante? Jones is brutal, especially for a grad transfer who came to Michigan for this very moment, but this is a game that Michigan has to win inside out ? even if it had Jones in the starting lineup. Hunter Dickinson has to dominate this game. The double team might give him trouble ? and minutes for Collins provide an easy double target ? but he?s capable of having monster performance against this type of team. He just needs to go out and do it. Dickinson can impose his will on this game and if he plays an All-Ameican caliber game, then Michigan?s season has a chance to continue.
Make open threes: Colorado State?s defense gives up a lot of 3-point attempts and Michigan?s 3-point accuracy has been? tough to predict. I wouldn?t be surprised if Michigan went 8-of-14 from 3-point range or 2-of-17 on Thursday afternoon. Both feel entirely possible yet neither any more likely than the other. If Caleb Houstan has one of those days where he makes four threes, U-M suddenly has margin for error.
Throw different looks at David Roddy: Moussa Diabate, Terrance Williams and Brandon Johns are all in the right mold of players that you?d want to be able to throw at Roddy. No one will stop him, and Michigan has a real problem on its hands defensively when Roddy shifts to the five, but they can make his life difficult, or at least attempt to. I suspect we?ll see a lot of zone in this matchup as Michigan searches for any sort of offensive option that works.
GO BLUE!
