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thewolverines24
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KEYS
Lineup X-factors: Illinois can go with Dainja and Hawkins or move Hawkins to the five and play just one big. Epps? potential absence means that the Illini will go with Harris at PG, or go big and play a non-PG lineup with Ty Rodgers filling the gaps. There are no real secrets to how Michigan will lineup, other than how often it deploys both bigs together. However, the number of ways Illinois could mix and match leaves the opportunity for some in-game swings in either direction. It will be interesting to see how Michigan prepares for different Illinois looks, but more importantly how it responds to changes on the fly within the game.
Don?t foul Terrance Shannon Jr.: Shannon?s ability to get downhill and draw fouls is particularly dangerous for Michigan for two reasons. First, the Wolverines don?t have a great option to guard Shannon, which is why they spent the early part of the summer trying to recruit him. Second, Kobe Bufkin is the most obvious candidate to defend Shannon but he?s indispensable and foul trouble would be catastrophic for Michigan?s chances to win the game. The key is to make Shannon earn his points from the field and not the free-throw line. It?s worth Will Tschetter or Terrance Williams gambling to take a charge but Bufkin can?t afford to commit early fouls trying to slow down the Illini perimeter threat.
3-point variance: Volume 3-point shooting teams that aren?t particularly accurate are still incredibly dangerous. Illinois has struggled from 3-point range all season, but the perimeter volume means that there will be nights that 11 or 12 go in. The Illini have only shot better than 32% in one of their last ten games and that?s a streak of cold shooting that U-M will want to keep alive.
Transition defense: Illinois is at its best in a full-court transition game. Michigan?s transition defense is ranked 66th nationally in points allowed per game, which is solid overall, but it is also hard to tell how much of that is a product of playing in the Big Ten, where so few teams get out and run. The ability to stop the ball in transition will be tested on the road tonight in a way that it rarely has over the last two months.
MATCHUPS
Harris ? McDaniel
Shannon ? Bufkin
Mayer ? Howard/Baker
Hawkins ? Williams/Tschetter
Dainja ? Dickinson
Assuming that Harris gets the start, the matchup combinations are reasonably straightforward. The Shannon matchup is the most difficult for Michigan to cope with, but the X-factor in all of this is that Illinois wants to get to its five-out lineup with Hawkins for stretches, and Michigan wants to get to its two-big lineup with Reed and Dickinson. It feels like only one approach can win out, but I have no idea which that is.
BOTTOM LINE
Illinois could be just about anything on any given day. The injury to Epps makes tonight?s game even more of a wild card. Do the Illini look lost without their starting point guard, or do they catch lightning in a bottle with a new lineup combination? Do they make double-digit threes or continue shooting under 30%?
KenPom pegs the Wolverines as 4-point underdogs, predicting a 75-71 final and giving Michigan a 36% chance at the road upset.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Lineup X-factors: Illinois can go with Dainja and Hawkins or move Hawkins to the five and play just one big. Epps? potential absence means that the Illini will go with Harris at PG, or go big and play a non-PG lineup with Ty Rodgers filling the gaps. There are no real secrets to how Michigan will lineup, other than how often it deploys both bigs together. However, the number of ways Illinois could mix and match leaves the opportunity for some in-game swings in either direction. It will be interesting to see how Michigan prepares for different Illinois looks, but more importantly how it responds to changes on the fly within the game.
Don?t foul Terrance Shannon Jr.: Shannon?s ability to get downhill and draw fouls is particularly dangerous for Michigan for two reasons. First, the Wolverines don?t have a great option to guard Shannon, which is why they spent the early part of the summer trying to recruit him. Second, Kobe Bufkin is the most obvious candidate to defend Shannon but he?s indispensable and foul trouble would be catastrophic for Michigan?s chances to win the game. The key is to make Shannon earn his points from the field and not the free-throw line. It?s worth Will Tschetter or Terrance Williams gambling to take a charge but Bufkin can?t afford to commit early fouls trying to slow down the Illini perimeter threat.
3-point variance: Volume 3-point shooting teams that aren?t particularly accurate are still incredibly dangerous. Illinois has struggled from 3-point range all season, but the perimeter volume means that there will be nights that 11 or 12 go in. The Illini have only shot better than 32% in one of their last ten games and that?s a streak of cold shooting that U-M will want to keep alive.
Transition defense: Illinois is at its best in a full-court transition game. Michigan?s transition defense is ranked 66th nationally in points allowed per game, which is solid overall, but it is also hard to tell how much of that is a product of playing in the Big Ten, where so few teams get out and run. The ability to stop the ball in transition will be tested on the road tonight in a way that it rarely has over the last two months.
MATCHUPS
Harris ? McDaniel
Shannon ? Bufkin
Mayer ? Howard/Baker
Hawkins ? Williams/Tschetter
Dainja ? Dickinson
Assuming that Harris gets the start, the matchup combinations are reasonably straightforward. The Shannon matchup is the most difficult for Michigan to cope with, but the X-factor in all of this is that Illinois wants to get to its five-out lineup with Hawkins for stretches, and Michigan wants to get to its two-big lineup with Reed and Dickinson. It feels like only one approach can win out, but I have no idea which that is.
BOTTOM LINE
Illinois could be just about anything on any given day. The injury to Epps makes tonight?s game even more of a wild card. Do the Illini look lost without their starting point guard, or do they catch lightning in a bottle with a new lineup combination? Do they make double-digit threes or continue shooting under 30%?
KenPom pegs the Wolverines as 4-point underdogs, predicting a 75-71 final and giving Michigan a 36% chance at the road upset.
GO BLUE!
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