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thewolverines24
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KEYS
Dominant the paint and draw fouls: The most straightforward path to winning this game goes through Hunter Dickinson. He?s done it before against the Terps, there are limited interior options on the bench, Julian Reese is not big enough to push him around on the block and he has all of the personal fuel in the world to bring his A-game while he?s down the street from DeMatha. Dickinson played arguably his best game of the year against Maryland on Jan. 1 and if he can make twos, draw fouls and go-to work inside then Michigan can win this game on the road. The Terps brought different doubles and digs at Dickinson in the first meeting, but nothing was executed particularly effectively. You have to imagine that they will do anything to sell out against Dickinson on the block in this meeting, although it goes against their ethos of preventing 3-point attempts.
Hope that Maryland doesn?t find its stroke: Maryland shot better than 40% in wins over Miami and Saint Louis and better than 38% in wins against Illinois and Ohio State at home. They are just 4-5 when they shoot worse than 37% from 3-point range ? and they shoot 31.4% for the year. The Terps had an awful shooting day in Ann Arbor ? scoring 22 points less than an average D1 team would be expected to score on the same shots ? and that certainly exaggerates the gap between the two teams.
Find a perimeter scorer: I wrote about Michigan?s ball screen offense coming into its own but Michigan?s perimeter playmakers were fairly limited ? all held to single digits ? in the first meeting. Michigan?s victory came down to defense and Dickinson on the block. Assuming that Michigan doesn?t hold the Terps to .61 points per possession this time, there will need to be a bit of extra scoring from the backcourt, whether off of doubles or creating out of ball screens.
Deal with small ball (or attack it?): Maryland will probably have to go small at some point and how Michigan deals with that is something to keep an eye on, especially with Donta Scott playing at home. I wouldn?t be opposed to trotting out the two-big lineup for a stretch in both halves to emphasize Michigan?s size advantage and provide a path to dominate the paint. That Reed-Dickinson combo doesn?t just work against big teams; it can create a major advantage on the glass against smaller teams, as we saw against Northwestern.
BOTTOM LINE
You can?t get to 12 league wins without winning on the road, and there aren?t many more attainable quality road wins than at Maryland. Yes, the Terps are better at home, but they aren?t among the elite teams in the conference. This would be a tremendous win for Michigan because it would look good on the resume, keep Michigan ahead of the curve in the conference standings, and set up a monster two-game homestand over the next week.
KenPom pegs it as a 73-70 Maryland win, giving the Wolverines a 36% chance at the upset.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Dominant the paint and draw fouls: The most straightforward path to winning this game goes through Hunter Dickinson. He?s done it before against the Terps, there are limited interior options on the bench, Julian Reese is not big enough to push him around on the block and he has all of the personal fuel in the world to bring his A-game while he?s down the street from DeMatha. Dickinson played arguably his best game of the year against Maryland on Jan. 1 and if he can make twos, draw fouls and go-to work inside then Michigan can win this game on the road. The Terps brought different doubles and digs at Dickinson in the first meeting, but nothing was executed particularly effectively. You have to imagine that they will do anything to sell out against Dickinson on the block in this meeting, although it goes against their ethos of preventing 3-point attempts.
Hope that Maryland doesn?t find its stroke: Maryland shot better than 40% in wins over Miami and Saint Louis and better than 38% in wins against Illinois and Ohio State at home. They are just 4-5 when they shoot worse than 37% from 3-point range ? and they shoot 31.4% for the year. The Terps had an awful shooting day in Ann Arbor ? scoring 22 points less than an average D1 team would be expected to score on the same shots ? and that certainly exaggerates the gap between the two teams.
Find a perimeter scorer: I wrote about Michigan?s ball screen offense coming into its own but Michigan?s perimeter playmakers were fairly limited ? all held to single digits ? in the first meeting. Michigan?s victory came down to defense and Dickinson on the block. Assuming that Michigan doesn?t hold the Terps to .61 points per possession this time, there will need to be a bit of extra scoring from the backcourt, whether off of doubles or creating out of ball screens.
Deal with small ball (or attack it?): Maryland will probably have to go small at some point and how Michigan deals with that is something to keep an eye on, especially with Donta Scott playing at home. I wouldn?t be opposed to trotting out the two-big lineup for a stretch in both halves to emphasize Michigan?s size advantage and provide a path to dominate the paint. That Reed-Dickinson combo doesn?t just work against big teams; it can create a major advantage on the glass against smaller teams, as we saw against Northwestern.
BOTTOM LINE
You can?t get to 12 league wins without winning on the road, and there aren?t many more attainable quality road wins than at Maryland. Yes, the Terps are better at home, but they aren?t among the elite teams in the conference. This would be a tremendous win for Michigan because it would look good on the resume, keep Michigan ahead of the curve in the conference standings, and set up a monster two-game homestand over the next week.
KenPom pegs it as a 73-70 Maryland win, giving the Wolverines a 36% chance at the upset.
GO BLUE!
