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thewolverines24
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Michigan heads on the road tonight (9:00 p.m., Peacock) to face Michigan State at the Breslin Center. The Wolverines and Spartans have split their rivalry matchups home and away throughout Juwan Howard’s tenure in Ann Arbor, and Michigan hasn’t won in East Lansing since March 3rd, 2018, when Moritz Wagner scored 27 points.
Both programs feel a long way from where they were back then, consistently ranked in the top ten nationally and competing for league titles and Final Fours. Instead, Michigan’s program is in disarray and headed for its worst season in over a decade. Michigan State’s program is healthier, but “the best eight-loss team in college basketball” is far from the preseason top five where the year began.
KEYS
Nkamhoua/Hall matchup: Any path to Michigan being competitive in this game hinges on Nkamhoua winning this head-to-head battle outright. Both teams will try to play through their four-man, and I’d expect them to be content to let their four-man defend their opposition one-on-one. For his part, Nkamhoua has been an excellent addition to Michigan — the idea of this team without him is almost unimaginable — while also struggling in a few notable head-to-head matchups.
McDaniel-less offense: Michigan has been held under a point per possession four times this year. Two games were at Atlantis, and two were road games played without Dug McDaniel: .88 PPP at Maryland and .96 PPP at Purdue. Given the lack of perimeter shot creation on the active road roster, it’s tough to see any path to scoring above that mark. It would be a great investment if you could parlay Michigan scoring under a point per possession over the next four road games.
Play any form of defense: Over the last three games, Michigan has allowed 275 points in 209 possessions — that’s 1.31 points per trip. Before this year, Michigan hadn’t allowed 1.31 PPP in a game since January 2018 at Purdue. To allow that sort of offensive production in aggregate over a three-game span is a damning indictment that the wheels have come off completely. Transition defense, ball screen defense, off-ball defense, closing out on shooters, defensive rebounding- the list of necessary defensive improvements is very long.
BOTTOM LINE
Pour a stiff drink, expect the worst, hope for the best. KenPom sets the number at Michigan State 78, Michigan 67.
Go Blue!
Both programs feel a long way from where they were back then, consistently ranked in the top ten nationally and competing for league titles and Final Fours. Instead, Michigan’s program is in disarray and headed for its worst season in over a decade. Michigan State’s program is healthier, but “the best eight-loss team in college basketball” is far from the preseason top five where the year began.
KEYS
Nkamhoua/Hall matchup: Any path to Michigan being competitive in this game hinges on Nkamhoua winning this head-to-head battle outright. Both teams will try to play through their four-man, and I’d expect them to be content to let their four-man defend their opposition one-on-one. For his part, Nkamhoua has been an excellent addition to Michigan — the idea of this team without him is almost unimaginable — while also struggling in a few notable head-to-head matchups.
McDaniel-less offense: Michigan has been held under a point per possession four times this year. Two games were at Atlantis, and two were road games played without Dug McDaniel: .88 PPP at Maryland and .96 PPP at Purdue. Given the lack of perimeter shot creation on the active road roster, it’s tough to see any path to scoring above that mark. It would be a great investment if you could parlay Michigan scoring under a point per possession over the next four road games.
Play any form of defense: Over the last three games, Michigan has allowed 275 points in 209 possessions — that’s 1.31 points per trip. Before this year, Michigan hadn’t allowed 1.31 PPP in a game since January 2018 at Purdue. To allow that sort of offensive production in aggregate over a three-game span is a damning indictment that the wheels have come off completely. Transition defense, ball screen defense, off-ball defense, closing out on shooters, defensive rebounding- the list of necessary defensive improvements is very long.
BOTTOM LINE
Pour a stiff drink, expect the worst, hope for the best. KenPom sets the number at Michigan State 78, Michigan 67.
Go Blue!
