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thewolverines24
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7 PM Eastern on BTN. On paper, this game is a terrible defensive match up for both teams. Michigan has one of the worst ball screen defenses with only Southern Alabama allowing more points per game out of ball screens. PSU is ranked 12th in points per game out of ball screens and is in the 99th percentile of pick and roll efficiency.
PSU is one of the worst post-up defenses in the country. They allow the third most points per game out of post-ups and grade out in the 6th percentile in post-up defensive efficiency. Michigan is 17th in points scored per game out of post-ups.
KEYS
Ball screen defense: I?m unsure what the answer is for Michigan to contain Penn State?s ball screen attack but it has to figure something out. Pickett is elite, there?s no obvious shooter to play off of and if things get tight, then PSU can go even smaller and cause fits for Dickinson on the perimeter. It?s easy to suggest tossing out the zone defense, but Penn State has faced 42 possessions of zone defense and Andrew Funk has made a 3-pointer on eight of them. That means 20% of PSU?s zone offense possessions end with a made three for their best shooter. Good luck.
Hunter Dickinson dominance: While Michigan has no answer to contain Penn State?s pick-and-roll attack, the Nittany Lions have no one to slow down Hunter Dickinson inside. Dickinson needs to dominate this game with post ups, passes out of the post, rolls to the rim, and putbacks. He needs to score, he needs to draw defenders, and he needs to draw fouls. He did all of that against Maryland, but if he can?t do it again tonight, then it will be a long night.
3-point variance: Penn State shoots a lot of threes which amps up the variability of the game. Add in the likelihood of Dickinson double teams and Michigan will probably shoot more than its regular share of catch-and-shoot threes. Whoever comes out on top in the 3-point lottery will have a significant edge. The Nittany Lions are 8-0 when they shoot 40% from 3-point range and 3-3 when they shoot worse than 40%.
Go Blue!
PSU is one of the worst post-up defenses in the country. They allow the third most points per game out of post-ups and grade out in the 6th percentile in post-up defensive efficiency. Michigan is 17th in points scored per game out of post-ups.
KEYS
Ball screen defense: I?m unsure what the answer is for Michigan to contain Penn State?s ball screen attack but it has to figure something out. Pickett is elite, there?s no obvious shooter to play off of and if things get tight, then PSU can go even smaller and cause fits for Dickinson on the perimeter. It?s easy to suggest tossing out the zone defense, but Penn State has faced 42 possessions of zone defense and Andrew Funk has made a 3-pointer on eight of them. That means 20% of PSU?s zone offense possessions end with a made three for their best shooter. Good luck.
Hunter Dickinson dominance: While Michigan has no answer to contain Penn State?s pick-and-roll attack, the Nittany Lions have no one to slow down Hunter Dickinson inside. Dickinson needs to dominate this game with post ups, passes out of the post, rolls to the rim, and putbacks. He needs to score, he needs to draw defenders, and he needs to draw fouls. He did all of that against Maryland, but if he can?t do it again tonight, then it will be a long night.
3-point variance: Penn State shoots a lot of threes which amps up the variability of the game. Add in the likelihood of Dickinson double teams and Michigan will probably shoot more than its regular share of catch-and-shoot threes. Whoever comes out on top in the 3-point lottery will have a significant edge. The Nittany Lions are 8-0 when they shoot 40% from 3-point range and 3-3 when they shoot worse than 40%.
Go Blue!
