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thewolverines24
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KEYS
Hunter Dickinson?s jump shooting: Hunter Dickinson?s ability to space the floor and make jumpers against Purdue?s paint-bound bigs was the X-factor in both matchups last season. Dickinson made 13-of-19 jumpers over two games including 6-of-9 3-pointers and you can see from the shot chart below (circles are makes) just how effective he was with his jumper. That shot will be there again this year based on how Purdue plays, and Michigan needs Dickinson to knock down multiple jump shots to keep pace. Dickinson needs to try to score inside, but the reality is that posting up Zach Edey a dozen times is not a viable way to win this game if you can?t pull him away from the rim first.
Ball screen offense: This ties in with Dickinson?s shooting, but Michigan?s guards are the key to unlocking Purdue?s defense. You have to make the Purdue defense move, especially the bigs, and make them pay for dropping into the paint. That means that Dug McDaniel and Kobe Bufkin will have to hit some tough in-between twos, but it also means that they have to show the patience and poise to make the difficult passes for open shots after drawing in Purdue?s defense.
Jett Howard (or his replacement): Jett Howard?s status is up in the air, but whether he plays or not, Michigan needs someone at the ?3? to hit shots. Maybe that is Jett Howard on a gimpy ankle, or maybe it is Joey Baker in his first start at Michigan. If Howard does miss the game, the pressure is on Kobe Bufkin to do the bulk of the late-clock creating and mid-range scoring.
Tarris Reed Jr. drawing fouls: Reed is probably only going to play 10 to 20 minutes against Purdue, but he feels like an X-factor. Conventional wisdom is that a backup big is a great option to ?use five fouls,? but Reed?s potential advantage in this one is his ability to draw fouls. It feels counterproductive, given how poorly Reed shoots at the line, but he?s terrific at getting fouled, and his quickness gives him a unique advantage against Zach Edey. If he can pick up two quick fouls during one of his stints on the floor, it could change the game?s outcome by forcing Edey off the floor.
BOTTOM LINE
Purdue is the class of the conference, but this is the type of game that bubble teams need to win. Facing an elite team on your home floor is an opportunity that only occurs a few times per year. Michigan has a chance to transform its season with a win, but that is still easier said than done.
KenPom pegs the Wolverines as five-point underdogs, predicting a 72-67 final and a 32% chance at the home upset.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Hunter Dickinson?s jump shooting: Hunter Dickinson?s ability to space the floor and make jumpers against Purdue?s paint-bound bigs was the X-factor in both matchups last season. Dickinson made 13-of-19 jumpers over two games including 6-of-9 3-pointers and you can see from the shot chart below (circles are makes) just how effective he was with his jumper. That shot will be there again this year based on how Purdue plays, and Michigan needs Dickinson to knock down multiple jump shots to keep pace. Dickinson needs to try to score inside, but the reality is that posting up Zach Edey a dozen times is not a viable way to win this game if you can?t pull him away from the rim first.
Ball screen offense: This ties in with Dickinson?s shooting, but Michigan?s guards are the key to unlocking Purdue?s defense. You have to make the Purdue defense move, especially the bigs, and make them pay for dropping into the paint. That means that Dug McDaniel and Kobe Bufkin will have to hit some tough in-between twos, but it also means that they have to show the patience and poise to make the difficult passes for open shots after drawing in Purdue?s defense.
Jett Howard (or his replacement): Jett Howard?s status is up in the air, but whether he plays or not, Michigan needs someone at the ?3? to hit shots. Maybe that is Jett Howard on a gimpy ankle, or maybe it is Joey Baker in his first start at Michigan. If Howard does miss the game, the pressure is on Kobe Bufkin to do the bulk of the late-clock creating and mid-range scoring.
Tarris Reed Jr. drawing fouls: Reed is probably only going to play 10 to 20 minutes against Purdue, but he feels like an X-factor. Conventional wisdom is that a backup big is a great option to ?use five fouls,? but Reed?s potential advantage in this one is his ability to draw fouls. It feels counterproductive, given how poorly Reed shoots at the line, but he?s terrific at getting fouled, and his quickness gives him a unique advantage against Zach Edey. If he can pick up two quick fouls during one of his stints on the floor, it could change the game?s outcome by forcing Edey off the floor.
BOTTOM LINE
Purdue is the class of the conference, but this is the type of game that bubble teams need to win. Facing an elite team on your home floor is an opportunity that only occurs a few times per year. Michigan has a chance to transform its season with a win, but that is still easier said than done.
KenPom pegs the Wolverines as five-point underdogs, predicting a 72-67 final and a 32% chance at the home upset.
GO BLUE!
