Interesting Historical Data on Draft

[detroit1811]

I found it on another forum and thought it was interesting. Not sure where they got the data from though.

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round-OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round-OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round-OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round-TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round-TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round-DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

T

 

[grandy]

Think I found the source, numbers seem to match up.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Criteria
This post has a simple criteria: How many players were drafted by position and round over the last decade and how many went on to become a starter.

I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career. Obviously, this will run the gambit from below average to high performing starters. The reality is that if you can start in this league for at least half of your playing career, you are better than most.

 

[Mitchrapp]

So basically we draft a bunch of OL? But LB 2nd in round one, we certainly need LB.

 

[LKP]

So basically we draft a bunch of OL? But LB 2nd in round one, we certainly need LB.

Like Tavai or Teddy Lehman or Jordan Dizon or Ragland. We have all the bust LBs. Davis Round 1. Even Kyle Van Noy for us worked out better elsewhere. Ernie Sims woof

Levy Round 3 only hit until he got hurt (of course right after big extension) and extra weird

Need better LB coaches and LBs that can cover

Hope Holmes can find some

 

[mhughes0021]

Basically after rd 2 just trade all your shit cause it's not going to work.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Like Tavai or Teddy Lehman or Jordan Dizon or Ragland. We have all the bust LBs. Davis Round 1. Even Kyle Van Noy for us worked out better elsewhere. Ernie Sims woof

Levy Round 3 only hit until he got hurt (of course right after big extension) and extra weird

Need better LB coaches and LBs that can cover

Hope Holmes can find some

You need to keep on trying.

 

[thehippo73]

I found it on another forum and thought it was interesting. Not sure where they got the data from though.

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round-OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round-OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round-OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round-TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round-TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round-DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

T

I find it hard to believe that 6th round QB is at 0%. Isn't there a 6th rd qb starting in the Super Bowl?

 

[Mitchrapp]

I find it hard to believe that 6th round QB is at 0%. Isn't there a 6th rd qb starting in the Super Bowl?

Good point, lol.

 

[tomdalton22]

I find it hard to believe that 6th round QB is at 0%. Isn't there a 6th rd qb starting in the Super Bowl?

lol

Matt Hasselbeck was also drafted in the 6th round. He's no stud, but between he and Brady, even if there have been 200 QBs drafted in the 6th round (which I doubt) that would be 1%

 

[zyxt9]

I find it hard to believe that 6th round QB is at 0%. Isn't there a 6th rd qb starting in the Super Bowl?

According to what Grandy posted, this is only covering the last 10 drafts. Probably several teams have drafted QBs in R6 hoping to replicate the Brady miracle...with 0% effectiveness. Either that or no team has drafted a QB in R6 during those 10 years.

 

[byco42]

So basically we draft a bunch of OL? But LB 2nd in round one, we certainly need LB.

I read this as a success rate of positions picked in the respective rounds, not the number of times that the position was picked.

What’s telling to me is that the % chance of an DL starting drafted in rounds 2-3-4 are about the same, and actually 10% higher in R4 than Rs 2-3.