Justin Upton kicking ass in Atlanta

[brewer229]

Also worth noting is Kansas City took the 2nd least amount of walks in the league last year. Yet were top 10 in runs. As well as 11th in on base percentage.

 

[Rebbiv]

The game is not played in a vacuum. Getting the run in and winning is more valuable than getting a guy on base and having a slightly better chance at winning than you did before. One is a known result the other is a probability.

In that situation getting an out turned out to be more valuable than a walk. You can't say otherwise, the goal is to win. That's why all stats are great, but none tell a whole story.

You keep making the same assumption, that the batter puts the ball into play and that it is allows the runner to score. That is also based on a probability.

I conceded based on game state, there are times where playing for a sacrifice is prudent. But those states exist late game/close game situations. And it isn't like teams will avoid a walk just to try for a sacrifice. If the pitcher isn't throwing anything close, you would have them forgo the walk and swing at pitcher pitches. Not smart.

 

[Rebbiv]

If first base is open, a walk puts a double play in the equation

And yet, the probability of scoring a run goes up. What is so hard to understand?

Yes, a doubleplay can happen, but the chances of scoring increases with a walk. Don't overthink this.

 

[gotime909]

And yet, the probability of scoring a run goes up. What is so hard to understand?

Yes, a doubleplay can happen, but the chances of scoring increases with a walk. Don't overthink this.

2-2 bottom of 9th, man on 3rd with 1 out. I have a hard time believing that the odds of scoring that run go up by putting a man on 1st when all that really changes is now there is a far greater chance of the inning ending on the next pitch.

 

[gotime909]

Also, for the mods protecting you, this is why you have so many beefs with people. I've said nothing ill towards you and your being a condescending prick. Not sure why you need to try and make the other person feel foolish. Just state your opinion and move on. No need for the "not sure what's so hard to understand" type comments. Just my opinion

 

[Rebbiv]

2-2 bottom of 9th, man on 3rd with 1 out. I have a hard time believing that the odds of scoring that run go up by putting a man on 1st when all that really changes is now there is a far greater chance of the inning ending on the next pitch.

The data collected on actually games indicate the runs are increased with that walk.

 

[Rebbiv]

Also, for the mods protecting you, this is why you have so many beefs with people. I've said nothing ill towards you and your being a condescending prick. Not sure why you need to try and make the other person feel foolish. Just state your opinion and move on. No need for the "not sure what's so hard to understand" type comments. Just my opinion

I apologize if you feel I was condescending. I provided the links with all the data. I assume you read and comprehended what was provided. My mistake.

 

[byco42]

So great hitters that have long careers walk a lot...that's the point?

It proves that they played a long time because they were great hitters and great hitters are generally more disciplined at the place than average or poor hitters, or were carefully pitched to. It also proves that walks for poor hitters is definitely a bonus.

Of the bottom 30 players in BB% with >200 PA, only four have a WRC above league average.

Of the top 30 players in BB% with >200 PA, only three have a WRC below league average.

Walks can be valuable, never more valuable than a hit. At the same time Walks could be less valuable than an out (sacrifice).

If you look at the actuaries of Run Probability, there are only a few scenarios where sacrificing raises it. A walk always does.

 

[tomdalton22]

The data collected on actually games indicate the runs are increased with that walk.

If I am reading this table correctly, it says the chance of scoring a run is higher with one out and a man on 3rd than 1 out and a man on 1st and 3rd.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.html

granted, it is data from 1984-1994 but this is the one that came up using google

 

[jdeb]

By whom?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/order/false

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/league/al/sort/defWARBR/order/true

In my previous posts I agreed to the fact that he has work to do in regards to working the game. You sorted the the list via CERA which is fine but opposite to what I was pointing out about his defensive side of the game.

I was listening to MLB on XM recently and his name was mentioned as one of the better defensive catchers in the AL and should be looked as one to watch in 2016.

I am happy with him as our starting catcher and look forward to watching his growth in 2016.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[byco42]

Also worth noting is Kansas City took the 2nd least amount of walks in the league last year. Yet were top 10 in runs. As well as 11th in on base percentage.

You omitted the 77 HBP and the team with the fewest Ks in the AL and 2nd most hits and eight of their players had an ISO higher than .160 with >200 PA. (Tigers had five.)

All that for 724 runs, 167 less than the Blue Jays, who lead the AL in walks.

 

[tomdalton22]

You omitted the 77 HBP and the team with the fewest Ks in the AL and 2nd most hits and eight of their players had an ISO higher than .160 with >200 PA. (Tigers had five.)

All that for 724 runs, 167 less than the Blue Jays, who lead the AL in walks.

Jays also hit 93 more HRs than KC.

Indians had the 3rd most walks and were 11th in runs.

It just goes to show you...there are a lot of ways to score runs

 

[byco42]

Jays also hit 93 more HRs than KC.

Indians had the 3rd most walks and were 11th in runs.

It just goes to show you...there are a lot of ways to score runs

And, in every instance, walks help a team do that.

 

[tomdalton22]

And, in every instance, walks help a team do that.

it depends on what the alternate outcome of those PA's are.

 

[byco42]

it depends on what the alternate outcome of those PA's are.

There IS no OTHER outcome when a player walks. I do not understand your point. When a leadoff hitter walks, he scores 38% of the time. Same with a leadoff hitter who reaches first any other way.

 

[tomdalton22]

There IS no OTHER outcome when a player walks. I do not understand your point. When a leadoff hitter walks, he scores 38% of the time. Same with a leadoff hitter who reaches first any other way.

I'm talking about the possible outcome of a PA. (walk, K, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, Sac, HBP, Fly out, ground out, reach on error)

 

[sggatecl]

2015 was the year of the double play in Detroit. I think that it's generating some bias against the worth of a walk. No way they lead the league in GDIP while being in the bottom half of the league in actual total ground balls again. Right?

Right?? Guys..?? I swear I will become an alcoholic if they do that shit again...

 

[Rebbiv]

If I am reading this table correctly, it says the chance of scoring a run is higher with one out and a man on 3rd than 1 out and a man on 1st and 3rd.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.html

granted, it is data from 1984-1994 but this is the one that came up using google

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwbymob.htm

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Right Tom, in that situation, one out and a man on 3rd versus 1 out and a man on 1st and 3rd, it is 1.7% less likely to score a run. But all other out situations, but that is the game state and does not necessarily explain how the man got on first base.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Then we are back to the Linear Weights of an event. There are two columns to view. The NIBB (Non-Intentional Base On Ball) and Bunt (or Out). The average number runs scored per inning is .555. You add the .555 to NIBB, Bunt, Out or even Home Runs to get the expected number of runs. While the table shows "1.67" for HR with 1 on and none out, the HR actual scores 2 runs, but expected for the inning, on average, based on the situation for the event, is 2.225.

Probability of scoring a run versus the expected number of runs based on game state is different. A walk will always increase the number of expected runs. An out, even a sacrifice, will almost always reduce the expected run.

Again...First and third, as a game state, it isn't always clear how the runner got to first. It could have been a hit by pitch. It could have been a reached on error. Even those two events are positives when it comes to expected runs.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Knowing the Tigers, 3rd base 1 out he probably gets picked off.

 

[Rebbiv]

Knowing the Tigers, 3rd base 1 out he probably gets picked off.

Or like last year, out while advancing.