Official CFP Semifinal Score Prediction Thread

[Michchamp]

This Saturday, December 31, 2022 @ 4:00 PM Eastern, on ESPN, Michigan plays TCU in the college football playoff semifinal.

Line: UM -7.5, o/u 58.5

Sagarin Predictor: UM by ~ 5 pts

Only pic I could think to post... would you rather see Sonny Dykes?

There's no history here... we have never played TCU. However we have played their coach, Sonny Dykes, before: he was SMU's coach in 2018. All I remember from that game is that we won somewhat easily, although they didn't go away. They kept fighting into the 4th.

Reading stats off the web and calling that a "Scouting Report"
I guess the X-factor here is TCU's strength-of-schedule (Sagarin ranked 15th) vs. ours (54th), but the X-factor-within-an-X-factor is whether or not you believe the stats that ranked the Big XII as the toughest conference in the country this year.

So far, that's not playing out in Bowl results, as the Big XII is 1-4 and - as of this writing - losing a 5th.

In typical Big XII fashion, TCU is all for playing offense (13th in YPG), but not so into defense (74th)... we're 27th and 3rd, respectively.

Their Team PED isn't bad (23rd), but their run defense is 67th. We'll see how they matchup, I guess.

Everyone knows their QB (Max Duggan) is pretty solid... he's 8th in Passing Efficiency; JJ is 20th. They have an RB who's rushed for over 1,300 yards (Kendre Miller /103 ypg), and also a WR in teh top 50 of ypg (Quentin Johnston). Apparently he's a big guy (6'4").

I don't see anything here that makes me nervous, but that... makes me nervous. We'll see. Can't wait to watch.

So go ahead and make your picks, and post some analysis if you want, but as usual, keep the woofing and barking for other threads!

 

[tinselwolverine]

Nice job.

On unrelated hoops thread about Michigan losing to CMU, I included you with me as the only poster here I?m aware of who always stood by Harbaugh when everyone else was calling for his head.

Like you, I?m pretty confident. This is (probably) not going to be the best team our Michigan has played this season.

But then, there?s a reason they play them, right?

Nice that they allowed the Ohio State - Michigan games to happen both of the last two years instead of chalking it up to the opinion of the prognosticators, know what I?m saying?

Maybe Vic, but he hasn?t been around much.

Our Conquering Heroes - 35

Fort Worth Texas Christians who - based on the hotness of their cheerleaders, are probably getting a whole lot more nookie than they?re letting their Protestant pastors know about - 24.

 

[bphillips4gg]

I don't think TCU can stop Michigan's rushing attack. All their fans are saying "WeLl We StOpPeD bIjAn". Texas had a 4th and half a yard last night and passed the ball. They are not a running team the way that Michigan is. The Don continues his dominance with 200 yards rushing. JJ hits a few shots off play action. Duggan keeps them in it for a half but Minter comes through again and Michigan rolls them in the second half.

Michigan - 42
TCU - 24

 

[thewolverines24]

Michigan - 38
TCU - 28

If TCU sells out to stop the run, which all indications are that's what they will do, then Schoon, Loveland, and Donovan should have a field day up the seams in the pass game. Donovan included there will depend on the health of his hand, but practice reports are that he's in a smaller cast and catching normally.

I think the ground game will still be successful even with TCU selling out. They may have stopped Texas, but they haven't faced a ground game like Michigan runs with extra OL and extra TEs blocking. Much more complex run game that they have never faced.

Duggan is really, really good and he's the best dual-threat QB we've faced all year. He's a warrior and he'll keep this respectable at worst.

 

[rumseyhouse77]

Michigan 48, TCU 24. Defense has got to get pressure on Duggan and force some bad passes that can be picked. Pound them into the ground. Edwards can make one handed catches as I recall. Let TCU sell out to stop the run, good luck with that! Isn't that what OSU tried to do and got burned? GO BLUE!

 

[Monster]

30-27 Michigan

45-35 Georgia

 

[Michchamp]

Nice job.

On unrelated hoops thread about Michigan losing to CMU, I included you with me as the only poster here I?m aware of who always stood by Harbaugh when everyone else was calling for his head.

Yeah. I was as disappointed as everyone else, but I can't blame Harbaugh for "not winning x/y/z" when I know he SHOULD have won at OSU in 2016 and made the CFP his second season. Even if you think that game was called fairly, and JT wasn't short on the spot, how can you put that outcome on Harbaugh? He had his team in position to win that game several times. All these comments about him not being able to win this, beat OSU, win "the big one"... while technically true, were also nonsensical when you put that on him. Just noise.

2017... that was a lousy team. They lost a lot of talent, and Jedd Fisch on the coaching staff. 2018, 2019 were improved... but in my opinion sandbagged by lousy staffing hires and decisions (Don Brown seemed like a solid hire but wore out his welcome in a couple seasons... Drevno, Pep Hamilton, Gattis... disasters.) And 2020 doesn't count.

Firing Harbaugh at that point would've set us back by a lot. I don't know who the "Fire Harbaugh" crowd expected would come in here and deliver results as quickly as he obviously could. He turned around USD, Stanford, the 49ers, and Michigan in 1 or at most 2 seasons. There was no reason to doubt him.

Like you, I?m pretty confident. This is (probably) not going to be the best team our Michigan has played this season.

I think OSU is the best team we've faced so far, at least talent-wise. Fox CFB posted a graphic of the number of 3-, 4- and 5-stars on each team's roster, and Georgia was loaded like no other. OSU was next, with over 10 5-stars. Then us with three and a lot of 4-stars, and TCU with 1 5-star and a couple 4-stars.

Sonny Dykes seems like a good coach, based on his career history; TCU might be better-coached than OSU, but I don't know if that alone overcomes the sheer talent advantage OSU has vs. everyone but Georgia. I think we really toppled Goliath in Columbus this year, and Harbaugh still hasn't gotten the credit he deserves for overcoming the talent disparity between the two teams.

But then, there?s a reason they play them, right?

...

Yep.

I'd feel better if we had Corum... the dropoff after Edwards sucks. We need another guy who can step up and reliably get yards to spell him.

But I think this is similar to the Maryland game, where the score is closer than the play on the field indicates... TCU will move the ball in chunks, swinging for the fences each time. But they strike out more often than they hit HRs... and maybe Duggan throws more picks than usual against the best defense they've played all season?

UM... 41
TCU.. 33

 

[jever4321]

38-27 Michigan. The Big12 sucks. They?re 1-6 so far in bowl games Texas tech the only W

 

[Mitchrapp]

41-28 Michigan.

 

[GoBlueInAtlanta]

I came to predict 38-28, but thewolverines24 has that, so I'll say 38-26.