OT: Conference Expansion & UM affects

[bamf16]

Ok, so if the Pac 12 does in fact form the first 16 team megaconference by adding Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the SEC will likely respond by adding Texas A&M, Miami, Florida State, and taking the easy route by targeting the rest of the Big 12 schools Iowa State, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State.

The ACC then after losing Miami and FSU would likely look to Big East schools like Rutgers, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia and Pitt to go along with maybe a Memphis.

That puts the Big 10 in a position where I think they need to act out of a position of strength. The minute OU, OSU, UT, & TTU leave the Big 12 for the Pac 12/16, the Big 10 needs to go after Missouri, Kansas, Pitt, (easily top 3) and then between Cincinnati, Kansas State, Louisville, and Iowa State. I think Pitt would choose ACC over Big 16 if it got that far, so waiting to approach them might hurt.

My best guess since I see the Pac 12 and SEC being by far the most proactive and aggressive.

Pac 16 = Current 12 (USC, UCLA, UW, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, UA, ASU, UC, UT, Cal, Stanford) + OU, UT, TTU, and OSU.

Big 16 = Current 12 + Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Louisville (no big splash in terms of new market or extending geographic lines)

SEC = Current 12 (UF, USC, LSU, Bama, Auburn, Arkansas, UT, UK, UGA, MSU, Ole Miss, Vandy) + Miami, FSU, A&M, and TCU

ACC = Current 12 minus Miami and Florida State (BC, VT, UVA, NC State, UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson, GA Tech, Maryland) + UConn, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, Memphis, Cincinnati

Notable teams left out: BYU (independent), Boise State (Mountain West), ND (independent - though I could see them finally joining the Big 10/16 and bumping K-State), Iowa State (Big 12)

Football pays the bills, and it sickens me to think of the reality of 4 16 team football megaconferences blowing up the Big East basketball conference (too many hoops only teams like Marquette, St. Johns, Providence, DePaul, Georgetown, ND) and no way these megaconferences allow basketball only organizations. I think it's safe to say we're on the brink of a major shift in college sports. I don't see the Pac 16 and the SEC existing with 16 teams and the Big East, Big 10, and ACC existing as is.

How this affects UM? Not that much IMO.

 

[wheels002]

The Big 10 has said they would love to get in the NY area. I would take Cuse, Rutgers, Kansas and Louisville. That would also help make our basketball more competitive and put us in the NY area as far as recruiting and overall draw.

 

[Mich_QB_U]

While I agree that the Pac 10/12/16 may happen, a league with 16 teams is essentially two leagues with a few common games and a championship. I'm not so sure in the long run a 16-team league would survive because it really lowers the opportunity for the middle of the pack teams to get a championship, so they might jump and create their own league and identity. Sort of like how the Mountain West carved itself out of the WAC when the WAC absorbed the Southwestern Conference teams that didn't make it into the Big 12. I don't see the Big Ten going to 16 because we don't need it. We have premier teams, we have the Rose Bowl and we have the TV channel. Michigan playing at Rutgers? or Syracuse? The fan base might not go for that.

 

[mgeezer]

First, the Big Ten has consistently made clear that they want a cultural and academic fit as well as football and audience. Missouri, Rutgers, and Pitt pass this bar well. Almost no one else (except some very-unlikely-to-join places like Texas, Notre Dame, and Maryland) does.

I also think 4 16-team leagues pave the way for national championship play-off with four teams, or one additional play-in game with the lowest rated of the four and the highest rated of everyone else so non-BCS teams have a chance.

 

[biggunsbob]

While I agree that the Pac 10/12/16 may happen, a league with 16 teams is essentially two leagues with a few common games and a championship. I'm not so sure in the long run a 16-team league would survive because it really lowers the opportunity for the middle of the pack teams to get a championship, so they might jump and create their own league and identity. Sort of like how the Mountain West carved itself out of the WAC when the WAC absorbed the Southwestern Conference teams that didn't make it into the Big 12. I don't see the Big Ten going to 16 because we don't need it. We have premier teams, we have the Rose Bowl and we have the TV channel. Michigan playing at Rutgers? or Syracuse? The fan base might not go for that.

Maybe Rutgers but Michigan has played Syracuse 12 times in its history (6-5-1) with the last two being in 1998-99... Michigan play the 1999 game at Syracuse in the carrier dome. Now they were much better back then when McNabb played there... Plus didn't Rutgers just expanded it's field in 2009 to 52,454...which I think makes it larger then both Indiana, and Northwestern... Moving into New york area makes senses for the Big Ten..