OT: Granderson

[beez]

Agree with everything from Jim rice down.

 

[mjsb2]

I think defensive metrics are still a work in progress. They are supposed to replace the eye test, but so much of the data is based on what a person sees when collecting data. And everyone sees things a bit differently.

I don't think there's any doubt that A-Jax is superior to Grandy in the field, but I don't see Curtis as being the worst in the game. That would be pretty surprising.

I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

 

[tycobb420]

I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon

 

[spockmaster]

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon

oh, scotty.

 

[mjsb2]

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon

And if there were any "ifs" involved that statement would be relevant.

But there are none.

 

[beez]

When in Rome...

 

[jimrice]

I agree. Defensive metrics might be impossible in the end.

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

I hope so. There are stats for everything, and I look forward to reliable defensive numbers.

One of my pet peeves is when someone quotes a two month UZR like it's some definitive measurement.

 

[Mitchrapp]

The biggest thing with Jackson over Granderson is Ajax has incredible reaction time. He breaks on a hit quicker than anyone.

 

[beez]

Mitch[/color]]The biggest thing with Jackson over Granderson is Ajax has incredible reaction time. He breaks on a hit quicker than anyone.

Absolutely..rarely a false step. Granderson ALWAYS takes a false step but his speed USUALLY makes up for it.

 

[mjsb2]

With the advent of Hit F/X they will be possible.

I hope so. There are stats for everything, and I look forward to reliable defensive numbers.

One of my pet peeves is when someone quotes a two month UZR like it's some definitive measurement.

Agreed, should be a few years before everything gets worked out with hit f/x, but when it does defensive numbers will take a great leap forward.

 

[tycobb420]

and if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon

And if there were any "ifs" involved that statement would be relevant.

But there are none.

Most sabermetrics are at best assinine. Defensive sabermetrics are perhaps the worst even with your aludium PU-36 explosive space modulator. (Yes I am not mocking this).

 

[mjsb2]

And if there were any "ifs" involved that statement would be relevant.

But there are none.

Most sabermetrics are at best assinine. Defensive sabermetrics are perhaps the worst even with your aludium PU-36 explosive space modulator. (Yes I am not mocking this).

I'd agree, at the this point defensive stats, while over large samples are still better than "watching them play", are still flawed and of course susceptible to small sample sizes.

However, to say offensive sabermetrics are at best asinine is ignorant. Whether you like it or not, these are the stats MLB teams use, they don't use traditional stats. They are better/more accurate statistics, and that is a fact.

 

[Rebbiv]

My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:

2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7

Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 GG from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.

Andruw Jones won 6 GG from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.

All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.

Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.


Edited CC to equal GG (Gold Gloves).

 

[beez]

My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:

2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7

Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.

Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.

All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.

Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.

Excuse the ignorance but what is CC?

 

[jimrice]

My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:

2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7

Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.

Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.

All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.

Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.

Really good stuff. The defensive stats are far behind the offensive ones.

A good example of offensive stats was A-Jax BABIP from 2010, which suggest his high average was unlikely to continue in 2011.

 

[beez]

My two cents here. UZR and DRS are the current flavor of choice when discussing defensive metrics. Let's look at Granderson's UZR/150 over the years:

2006 = 13.6
2007 = 14.6
2008 = - 11.9
2009 = -1.4
2010 = 7.9
2011 = -12.7

Now, does someone's defense change 26.5 runs in one year? IMO, there is a flaw in the stat because of this. Granderson isn't the only one. Torii Hunter won 8 CC from 2002-2009 as a CFer and 4 of those years he had a negative UZR/150. Only once was his UZR/150 above 10. Now, arguably Hunter was the best defensive CFer in the AL during that time.

Andruw Jones won 6 CC from 2002-2007. Not once was his UZR/150 below 10 and 3 times in was over 20. In this case, the numbers match who was consider the best MLB defensive CFer.

All in all, as pointed out, there is no real good defensive metric. UZR/150 is the best available, but even most Sabermetrics cannot compute it. That aught to tell you something.

Now, as far as offensive stats, quite a few can be informative and/or predictive. By using linear weights, removing park bias and obtaining the right sample size, you should be able to predict future success or failure. Even this is not perfect. There was no predicting Jose Bautista prior to last year. Just like no predictions would have soon the year Dunn is having. Those are the anomalies and not the norm.

Really good stuff. The defensive stats are far behind the offensive ones.

A good example of offensive stats was A-Jax BABIP from 2010, which suggest his high average was unlikely to continue in 2011.

yeah Art and I talked about that at length last year. basically after seeing his BABIP you could only expect a descent drop off, especially with the amount of K's.

BTW I still want to know wahts CC's are. I honestly have no idea.

 

[jimrice]

I think Rebbiv meant to put GG for Gold Glove and put "CC" by mistake.

 

[KAWDUP]

Looking at the context. Could it be CC was mis-typed and he meant GG for Gold Gloves?

 

[beez]

I thought that but I heard he was a pretty reliable stat guy and knows what he's talking about so I thought maybe it was something I'd never seen before and should ask before I look like a tool. Plus he put it mulitple times so I just assumed that it wasnt a typo.
in that case I'll say while I understand the point he was making, gold gloves are voted on the same way prom queen is... popularity and reputation. If you've won them in the past, odds are you can win them in the future it seems. I know the guys who win them are above average fielders but I dont feel like it always goes to the best guy. Jeter wins them time n time again undeservingly.