The Official ORANGE BOWL Score Prediction and Discuusion Thread

[TheVictors]

The Official ORANGE BOWL Score Prediction and Discussion Thread

What the hell ...15 days away from Miami and nothing but media-driven conspiracies and recruiting rumors going on right now --- We still have a game to play!!

After suffering the great injustice of Refs tangling chains, blowing the spot and providing erratic and shitty officiating all game long ...it's on to Miami.

Florida State began the year as a hot pick to make the CFB Playoff and perhaps even win the National Title but an early season blowout loss to Louisville derailed that notion and with additional losses to UNC and Clemson, the Seminoles find themselves (9-3) and ranked #11 coming into the Orange Bowl (brought to you by Capital One; "What's In Your Wallet?")

Michigan, on the other hand, comes in ranked #6 in the final regular season poll and on the heels of a loss that not only cost them the BigTen East, but a likely spot in the CFB Playoff too. Finishing at (10-2), for the second straight year the Wolverines find themselves playing a Bowl game in Florida against a team from Florida and unlike most years (and as should NOT be the case), the Orange Bowl is being played on December 30th instead of New Year's Day.

And while the Orange Bowl seems to be a consolation prize of sorts for the program and not exactly what most folks had in mind when MICHIGAN was ranked #2 in the nation, it is a spotlight Bowl game against a relatively well-respected Power-5 program and coach in Florida State. Las Vegas likes MICHIGAN'S chances by a full touchdown and currently shows the line at Michigan -7. The Over/Under for the game opened at 58 total points but has come down since then to 52.5.

So post your thoughts on the game, your score prediction and supportive analysis if you want and go ahead and woof and bark - not like we have any FSU fans to squabble with, though the few I know and work with are very, very confident in their chances and don't think Michigan has a shot at all.

"Why the fuck did you steal crab legs, again?"

 

[Monster]

Fuck Florida State.

52-6 Michigan.

 

[Michchamp]

MICHIGAN.......34
Floriduh State..15

 

[Michlady]

Michigan 32
FSU 21

 

[hungry]

Was doing some research for the bowl pick'ems and found some interesting stats

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/index.html

great site for statistics, schdedule results, etc. The stat that i usually find indicative for post-season success is Scoring D

Michigan 12.5
Florida St 24.4

That is a pretty significant difference. Michigan's score is outstanding and is 2nd in the nation.

next is Sagarin:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Michigan is 3rd with a score of 99.74 SoS is 22 and Predictor Ranking of 3
Florida St is 11th with a score of 87.35 SoS is 18 and Predictor Ranking of 15

12 is a significant difference in the score portion of the Sagarin ranking. There is only a 5 point difference in the actual scoring of the Predictor, but it just depends on what you like to go by. I'm kind of surprised that Vegas is calling at -7 Michigan by looking at these statistics. I'd say that Michigan should be favored by more.

 

[TheVictors]

That's some good stuff there, hungry ^^^

As for Vegas, they have to make sure the Florida State fans and anti-Michigan folks bet too

 

[tomdalton22]

Was doing some research for the bowl pick'ems and found some interesting stats

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/index.html

great site for statistics, schdedule results, etc. The stat that i usually find indicative for post-season success is Scoring D

Michigan 12.5
Florida St 24.4

That is a pretty significant difference. Michigan's score is outstanding and is 2nd in the nation.

next is Sagarin:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Michigan is 3rd with a score of 99.74 SoS is 22 and Predictor Ranking of 3
Florida St is 11th with a score of 87.35 SoS is 18 and Predictor Ranking of 15

12 is a significant difference in the score portion of the Sagarin ranking. There is only a 5 point difference in the actual scoring of the Predictor, but it just depends on what you like to go by. I'm kind of surprised that Vegas is calling at -7 Michigan by looking at these statistics. I'd say that Michigan should be favored by more.

I wonder how you would do in a bowl confidence pool if you strictly used the Sagarin ranking?

 

[hungry]

That's some good stuff there, hungry ^^^

As for Vegas, they have to make sure the Florida State fans and anti-Michigan folks bet too

Well, I would understand completely if it opened higher and then betting moved it lower. Opening at -7 and staying there seems strange to me, given the on-paper differences.

I guess maybe they might be putting something into the home game aspect. I don't know.

 

[hungry]

I wonder how you would do in a bowl confidence pool if you strictly used the Sagarin ranking?

I usually do fairly well in the bowl pool that I join in the world with friends. The one my friend does is just "pick-a-winner" with each game being worth 1 point. I've used various statistics over the years, but I definitely take into account Sagarin Score and the Sagarin Sos. I look at Vegas odds and, like I mentioned, scoring D, as well.

This being said, I haven't done well at all in pick'ems that use confidence points. I usually don't take a lot of time thinking about the confidence point aspect. I don't know how I'd work confidence points into the Sagarin formula.

 

[hungry]

one thing I incorporated this year was to look at "hot streak." This means, how the teams finished the season. This unfortunately does NOT favor Michigan.

Michigan, kind of, skidded into the end of the season. Now part of that was an injured Wilton Speight, but they lost 2 at the end of the year and struggled against IU. They pounded Maryland, who I think is garbage. They did just barely lose those 2 and one of those games was at OSU and we all know how that played out.

Florida St, meanwhile, won 6 out of their last 7, only losing to Clemson and are on a 4 game winning streak.

 

[TheVictors]

one thing I incorporated this year was to look at "hot streak." This means, how the teams finished the season. This unfortunately does NOT favor Michigan.

Michigan, kind of, skidded into the end of the season. Now part of that was an injured Wilton Speight, but they lost 2 at the end of the year and struggled against IU. They pounded Maryland, who I think is garbage. They did just barely lose those 2 and one of those games was at OSU and we all know how that played out.

Florida St, meanwhile, won 6 out of their last 7, only losing to Clemson and are on a 4 game winning streak.

I agree but then look at how well the team played vs Florida after getting walloped by osu and having the five week break.

 

[hungry]

True. Often in these bowl games, it comes down to who is more motivated to win. Last year, it was obvious that Florida just showed up and Michigan definitely wanted to win and had something to prove

hopefully, Michigan can find motivation in this game and not be overcome with being upset about the loss at OSU and the subsequent missing of the playoff. Often the feeling that you deserve a better bowl game will lead to a loss.

 

[TheVictors]

True. Often in these bowl games, it comes down to who is more motivated to win. Last year, it was obvious that Florida just showed up and Michigan definitely wanted to win and had something to prove

hopefully, Michigan can find motivation in this game and not be overcome with being upset about the loss at OSU and the subsequent missing of the playoff. Often the feeling that you deserve a better bowl game will lead to a loss.

2005 Alamo Bowl ...?

 

[tinselwolverine]

I usually do fairly well in the bowl pool that I join in the world with friends. The one my friend does is just "pick-a-winner" with each game being worth 1 point. I've used various statistics over the years, but I definitely take into account Sagarin Score and the Sagarin Sos. I look at Vegas odds and, like I mentioned, scoring D, as well.

This being said, I haven't done well at all in pick'ems that use confidence points. I usually don't take a lot of time thinking about the confidence point aspect. I don't know how I'd work confidence points into the Sagarin formula.

In the Sagarin formula - whatever it is - there's going to be game with a team with a better Sagarin ranking against its opponent than there is for any other game.

That's the game where you would assign the most confidence points.

Then, there's going to be a game with a team with the second best Sagarin ranking against its opponent than there is for any of the remaining games.

That's the game where you would assign the second most confidence points.

And so on, and so forth...

 

[tinselwolverine]

True. Often in these bowl games, it comes down to who is more motivated to win. Last year, it was obvious that Florida just showed up and Michigan definitely wanted to win and had something to prove

hopefully, Michigan can find motivation in this game and not be overcome with being upset about the loss at OSU and the subsequent missing of the playoff. Often the feeling that you deserve a better bowl game will lead to a loss.

I think more likely Harbaugh will bring the team with a chip on its shoulder...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LM_OPM3QRu0

 

[dubbsco]

I think in a fit of anger from the 4 points that kept them out of playoffs, Michigan takes this game 41-14.

 

[easye688]

Michigan 41
Florida State 24


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[gobluebigjon]

Um 38
Fsu 17

 

[rumseyhouse77]

56-17 Michigan

 

[UMRules06]

Michigan 33 FSU 20