thoughts on UM-MSU

[rumseyhouse77]

And MSU this season.
They won't know what hit them.

We are ging to throttle them so badly their defensive rankings will fall out of the top 20 in all categories!

Monster... >

I think Michigan is quite capable of laying a beating on Sparty. If they turn DG loose from the start, he has a good game running and hitting Gallon and Funchess, and the defense shows up. I think Sparty knows this too. The problem is, will they turn DG loose from the start and will he have a good game? Will the D that played the ND game show up? Or will it be the team that played PSU, Akron, and UConn? I am hoping it will be the team that beat the Irish, but I just don't know.

GO BLUE!

 

[Spartanmack]

I think Michigan is quite capable of laying a beating on Sparty. If they turn DG loose from the start, he has a good game running and hitting Gallon and Funchess, and the defense shows up. I think Sparty knows this too. The problem is, will they turn DG loose from the start and will he have a good game? Will the D that played the ND game show up? Or will it be the team that played PSU, Akron, and UConn? I am hoping it will be the team that beat the Irish, but I just don't know.

GO BLUE!

We would be fine facing the defense that "held" ND to just 410 yards (averaging 386) and 30 points (averaging 27.5). Maybe our offense won't look so inept against a defense like that.

 

[Michchamp]

We would be fine facing the defense that "held" ND to 410 yards and 30 points - 25 yards and 2.5 points more than they are averaging for the year. Maybe our offense won't look so inept against a defense like that.

7 of those points came from a pick-six in the end zone. our defense held them to 23 points.

 

[Michchamp]

how many times can Drew Sharp write the same column this season? He's been going on about how both MSU and UM suck since week 1.

 

[RABID]

The officials ARE running the clock at Sparty stadium now right?
They added the MichiganState Clock clause to the NCAA rule book after the creative timekeeping issues we had I believe.

Was that? wait... Yes! It was! I just saw the 1st no call pass interference on State's defense! (warming up...)

 

[Spartanmack]

7 of those points came from a pick-six in the end zone. our defense held them to 23 points.

Wow you really shut them down.

 

[Michchamp]

Wow you really shut them down.

you think I don't realize that you were making a different point like three posts up?

 

[Spartanmack]

The officials ARE running the clock at Sparty stadium now right?
They added the MichiganState Clock clause to the NCAA rule book after the creative timekeeping issues we had I believe.

Was that? wait... Yes! It was! I just saw the 1st no call pass interference on State's defense! (warming up...)

It was a make up no-call for the bs pass interference on the previous drive.

 

[rumseyhouse77]

We would be fine facing the defense that "held" ND to just 410 yards (averaging 386) and 30 points (averaging 27.5). Maybe our offense won't look so inept against a defense like that.

The sparty offense is not as good as the ND offense, so the sparty O would do much worse. Michigan won the game, so whatever, as long as Michigan wins that is all that counts in the end.

GO BLUE!

 

[Spartanmack]

The sparty offense is not as good as the ND offense, so the sparty O would do much worse. Michigan won the game, so whatever, as long as Michigan wins that is all that counts in the end.

GO BLUE!

That's true but the MSU defense is much better than the nd defense. if we put up our average on offense like ND did our defense should give us a chance to win this game.

 

[Michchamp]

If I had to wager, I guess I like our chances better in a low scoring game, which would mean our defense is able to contain MSU's offense, and MSU's offense is playing like crap. In such an instance, Gardner's ability to make a big play happen here or there would be the difference.

spread is currently State by 3 1/2 to 4 1/2; no o/u posted yet

Sagarin predictor would give them just over a 5 point win.

Lines vary from MSU -3 1/2 to -6, with the median being -4 1/2 and the mean being closer to -5 1/2.

consensus o/u is 46 1/2.

meaning according to the gambling community, state wins 26 to 21.

and therefore State wins the Legends, since they have an easy schedule to compensate them for all the whining they did in 2011 when we leapfrogged them into the BCS. Life isn't so unfair for them after all...

 

[Michchamp]

looking at it this way...

Opp............offensive rank........pts scored v. Mich D
CMU..............106th................9
ND..................81st................23
Akron............105th................24
UConn...........116th................14
Minn..............107th...............13
PennSt............56th...............34 (at end of 4th Q)
IU..................10th................47

these numbers are skewed by TO's on our side of the field, and the unusual ease with which IU hit big plays against our D. UConn scored all their offensive pts as a result of short fields. Penn St. scored 14 of theirs that way.

MSU's O is ranked 87th so... as long as we don't give up any TO's on our side of the 50 we should be okay. In theory.

I think we have to play for a low scoring, field position game.

 

[Gulo Blue]

looking at it this way...

Opp............offensive rank........pts scored v. Mich D
CMU..............106th................9
ND..................81st................23
Akron............105th................24
UConn...........116th................14
Minn..............107th...............13
PennSt............56th...............34 (at end of 4th Q)
IU..................10th................47

these numbers are skewed by TO's on our side of the field, and the unusual ease with which IU hit big plays against our D. UConn scored all their offensive pts as a result of short fields. Penn St. scored 14 of theirs that way.

MSU's O is ranked 87th so... as long as we don't give up any TO's on our side of the 50 we should be okay. In theory.

I think we have to play for a low scoring, field position game.

A linear fit to this data yields: points scored vs. Mich D= -0.33*rank+50.8.

For an offense ranked 87th, that's 22 points given up.

 

[TheVictors]

I think the MICHIGAN defense is being completely overlooked. The storyline for the game as it is being presented this week is that the Spartan offense -- suddenly with a pulse at Illinois -- will fire on all cylinders and score at will against Michigan because Michigan has given up a lot of points in a few games (PSU and Indiana, most notably).

While the M defense isn't a statistical juggernaut, they are capable of making plays and if young Mr Cook sits back and tosses the ball around or gets pressured early by blitzing LBs, I think the M defense could easily score 6 on its own and set up a short field for the Offense or Gibbons a couple times.

I think that the way this game is being characterized in the media conveys the sense that the "rivalry" is only one-directional and that MICHIGAN won't play any differently in this game than against any other team.

I am beginning to like how certain EVERYONE is that State will win this game and in dominant fashion.... I think it's funny to sit back and watch the Sparty fanbase convince themselves that they are the "underdog" with "nothing to lose."

Might be in for a surprise Saturday.

 

[Michchamp]

...I think it's funny to sit back and watch the Sparty fanbase convince themselves that they are the "underdog" with "nothing to lose."

...

I think it's even funnier to sit back and watch them convince themselves that they now have the best program in the state and went to the best university in the state.

 

[Michchamp]

A linear fit to this data yields: points scored vs. Mich D= -0.33*rank+50.8.

For an offense ranked 87th, that's 22 points given up.

that's some nice math there, I tell you what!

I think an even better fit would be to use the raw yds/game number or to factor in the avg. starting position of the opponent's drive somehow (since I think our D has been hurt by that more than others, although, by comparing YPG/pts allowed maybe we do that already).

would be interesting to see where we fit on the flipside of that equation, with Michigan's O vs. MSU's D, because we may have a tough time scoring more than 22 on them.

 

[Green and White 95]

I think the MICHIGAN defense is being completely overlooked. The storyline for the game as it is being presented this week is that the Spartan offense -- suddenly with a pulse at Illinois -- will fire on all cylinders and score at will against Michigan because Michigan has given up a lot of points in a few games (PSU and Indiana, most notably).

While the M defense isn't a statistical juggernaut, they are capable of making plays and if young Mr Cook sits back and tosses the ball around or gets pressured early by blitzing LBs, I think the M defense could easily score 6 on its own and set up a short field for the Offense or Gibbons a couple times.

I think that the way this game is being characterized in the media conveys the sense that the "rivalry" is only one-directional and that MICHIGAN won't play any differently in this game than against any other team.

I am beginning to like how certain EVERYONE is that State will win this game and in dominant fashion.... I think it's funny to sit back and watch the Sparty fanbase convince themselves that they are the "underdog" with "nothing to lose."

Might be in for a surprise Saturday.

I'm not. I do know that points were scored on your D because of your offense turning it over. I watched your defense play some pretty tough ball and then, I've watched them look like shit against PSU and IU. Your line stops the run pretty good, which is our strength. Your secondary is a mess though. But Cook is up and down, so...

It's going to be a game of defense and big plays. I'm still not sure who I think wins. Either way, I think it will be close. If we beat you by more than a TD I would be shocked, and vice versa.

 

[Green and White 95]

A linear fit to this data yields: points scored vs. Mich D= -0.33*rank+50.8.

For an offense ranked 87th, that's 22 points given up.

If we score 22 points, I will forever, or until the end of DSF, call you Gulo the Genius.

Off topic, sorry for thread hijacking, but Reds Math prowess made me think of this. You have probably already seen this before, but here's an old math equation that causes a lot of debate. Who you got Red ?

48?2(9+3)

288 or 2

 

[RABID]

If we score 22 points, I will forever, or until the end of DSF, call you Gulo the Genius.

Off topic, sorry for thread hijacking, but Reds Math prowess made me think of this. You have probably already seen this before, but here's an old math equation that causes a lot of debate. Who you got Red ?

48?2(9+3)

288 or 2

My Dear Aunt Sally says 288
Technically this is an ambiguous expression which is missing one set of parenthesis.
With the way it is written it would lead you to believe the intention is to multiply through the parenthesis first, but by the OOOs that would be incorrect, as division and multiplication hold the same order hence resorting to left-to-right operations.

Can you show me how to re write the same expression to yield 8.67 ?

 

[TheVictors]

If we score 22 points, I will forever, or until the end of DSF, call you Gulo the Genius.

Off topic, sorry for thread hijacking, but Reds Math prowess made me think of this. You have probably already seen this before, but here's an old math equation that causes a lot of debate. Who you got Red ?

48?2(9+3)

288 or 2

Gotta remember your ....Order of Operations!