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Michchamp
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This Saturday, November 11, 2023 ("Armistice Day" to the really olds, "Veterans' Day" to everyone else) @ NOON Eastern Daylight Time on FOX, Michigan plays Penn State in State College, PA.
Line: UM -4.5 (it opened at UM -1!!!)
o/u: 45.5
Sagarin predictor: 2 pt. Michigan win
Sometimes expectations are met, and prior to the sason I think most college football fans who "know ball" as the kids say expected this game to be our first real test of the season, and they were correct.
This is the 4th all-time meeting between Michigan and Penn St. in which both are ranked in the Top 10 (we're 2-1 in those; Penn St.'s win was in '94). We're 16-10 overall vs. Penn St., with winning records both at home and on the road. Harbaugh is 5-3 vs. Penn St. (2-2 on the road).
Michigan has breezed through the competition on the field this season, with an avg. margin of victory of 34 pts./game. No one else has a margin over +27/game, not even Georgia. This should, on paper, be much closer.
Stats Watch!
We have a 21 game Big Ten win streak, now the longest in Program history.
Other stats (Penn St's rank in parenthesis):
Penalties/game: 1st - 2.6/g (39th - 5.5/g)
Turnover margin: t6th - +1/g (1st - +1.75/g)
Rushing defense: 9th - 90ypg (1st - 60 ypg)
Team PED: 2nd (9th)
Rush Offense: 50th - 167ypg (42nd - 173 ypg)
Team Passing Eff.: 2nd (54th) - This is our biggest advantage
Team sacks: t44th (1st... uh oh)
Also of note: their Red Zone defense is poor (93rd); ours is 1st and off-the-charts good (only 5 RZ scores all year on 11 opportunities total)
Ohio St.'s PED #'s are comparable to ours (they're #1 & slightly better in some ways), and against them, Drew Allar was awful... 18 of 42 (43%) for 191 yards, 1 TD 0 INT.
Assuming both UM and Penn St have stalwart run defenses, and our running game is not as good as it was, it seems like this comes down to QB play. We definitely have the edge there.
So go ahead and make your picks and post some analysis if you choose, but as always leave the woofing and the barking for other threads!
Line: UM -4.5 (it opened at UM -1!!!)
o/u: 45.5
Sagarin predictor: 2 pt. Michigan win
Sometimes expectations are met, and prior to the sason I think most college football fans who "know ball" as the kids say expected this game to be our first real test of the season, and they were correct.
This is the 4th all-time meeting between Michigan and Penn St. in which both are ranked in the Top 10 (we're 2-1 in those; Penn St.'s win was in '94). We're 16-10 overall vs. Penn St., with winning records both at home and on the road. Harbaugh is 5-3 vs. Penn St. (2-2 on the road).
Michigan has breezed through the competition on the field this season, with an avg. margin of victory of 34 pts./game. No one else has a margin over +27/game, not even Georgia. This should, on paper, be much closer.
Stats Watch!
We have a 21 game Big Ten win streak, now the longest in Program history.
Other stats (Penn St's rank in parenthesis):
Penalties/game: 1st - 2.6/g (39th - 5.5/g)
Turnover margin: t6th - +1/g (1st - +1.75/g)
Rushing defense: 9th - 90ypg (1st - 60 ypg)
Team PED: 2nd (9th)
Rush Offense: 50th - 167ypg (42nd - 173 ypg)
Team Passing Eff.: 2nd (54th) - This is our biggest advantage
Team sacks: t44th (1st... uh oh)
Also of note: their Red Zone defense is poor (93rd); ours is 1st and off-the-charts good (only 5 RZ scores all year on 11 opportunities total)
Ohio St.'s PED #'s are comparable to ours (they're #1 & slightly better in some ways), and against them, Drew Allar was awful... 18 of 42 (43%) for 191 yards, 1 TD 0 INT.
Assuming both UM and Penn St have stalwart run defenses, and our running game is not as good as it was, it seems like this comes down to QB play. We definitely have the edge there.
So go ahead and make your picks and post some analysis if you choose, but as always leave the woofing and the barking for other threads!
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