tigermud said:

Terrible...pelfrey is not that good, it's a downgrade from Simon IMO, which isn't saying much but c'mon man pelfrey? Psssfft

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Actually that says quite a bit.

sggatecl said:

Funny thing is I copied these stats to some guy defending the move on my Facebook feed. He's still defending it anyways. People blow my mind.

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How do you defend this? What positive attribute does he bring for $8 Million a year?

Honestly, this and the Maybin deal seals it for me. Al Sr. has no fucking clue.

Rebbiv said:

How do you defend this? What positive attribute does he bring for $8 Million a year?

Honestly, this and the Maybin deal seals it for me. Al Sr. has no fucking clue.

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Exact quote: "He might not be Nolan Ryan but he'll keep us in games. That's all you ask of your #5 guy. 8 million isn't that much."

Btw he isn't my friend, but a friend of a friend. I don't associate with degenerates like this.

8 million isn't a lot for a #5? Pffstt hell buck farmer is a lot less than 8 million wtf is al doing I have no clue

So Mr. I says he doesn't give a rats ass about the luxury tax, and AA's first move afterwards is to sign Mike Pelfrey....

Someone cue up the Benny Hill theme music on a continuous loop.

John Lackey to Cubs, 2 years $32 Mil

2013-2015 Total (148 MLB starters qualify with 240 innings)

ERA
38. Lackey 3.35
143. Pelfrey 4.94

xFIP
45. Lackey 3.59
144. Pelfrey 4.64

K-BB%
49. Lackey 14.4%
146. Pelfrey 5.4%

WHIP
50. Lackey 1.22
148. Pelfrey 1.55

SIERA
50. Lackey 3.68
146. Pelfrey 4.73

BABIP
68. Lackey .294
147. Pelfrey .332

OPP BAVG
89. Lackey .253 BAVG
148. Pelfrey .298 BAVG

dale675 said:

Now all the reports are saying 2 years 16m? wow

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I could live with a 1 year deal. But not 2 years 16 Million.

This guy sucks..... Ugggggggggg

I quickly read that as Dan Petry. And I wish it was even at his age.

tigermud said:

http://youtu.be/MK6TXMsvgQg

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30 minute version. Afterwards you might forget we signed Pelfry.

I know times have changed. But we had Kenny Rogers for 8 million. And yea for the money of a bad outfielder and this guy we could have had a many players that could have HELP this team.

Feels like we are going into an abyss of Dark time for the Tigers, with the stats Rebbiv posted, this Pelfrey looks like dogshit and two years worth of dogshit.

The way this team has drafted compared to most other teams, I have felt they are lower rung in player development, scouting, talent evaluators,

Al Avila looks like he fucked up big time with this signing, Has to be several pitcher they could have got for that kind of money,

The old man talks about going over the luxury tax and they sign this guy??!!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/mike-pelfrey-gets-two-years-from-the-tigers/
Mike Pelfrey gets two years from the Tigers.
Fangraphs

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/12/4/9851590/mike-pelfrey-and-the-value-of-good-defense
One thing that will make Mike Pelfrey better in Detroit? Good defense.
bybtb

My knee jerk reaction was post #32. After reading these, I calmed down a little. Still, I don't like the signing. 1 year would have been better.

While I don't like the two yr deal, Pelfry has increased his velocity last season. Maybe the guy is getting healthy after TJ surgery. Still no reason to give him a two year deal. I could see a 1 yr prove it deal.

Don't this make me the voice of hope on this deal? I don't like it.

Pelfrey like Maybin taken one pick later in the 2005 draft adds very little value to the team but between them add $13m to and $16.5 towards the tax cap.

What the fuck?

Rookie GM.

thehippo73 said:

While I don't like the two yr deal, Pelfry has increased his velocity last season. Maybe the guy is getting healthy after TJ surgery. Still no reason to give him a two year deal. I could see a 1 yr prove it deal.

Don't this make me the voice of hope on this deal? I don't like it.

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The one reason why Velocity is overhyped. The guy was horrible.

I always loved when he was pitching against us. Not only did we get crap but now we have to make up all the runs we scored when he pitched.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

kalinecountry said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/mike-pelfrey-gets-two-years-from-the-tigers/
Mike Pelfrey gets two years from the Tigers.
Fangraphs

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/12/4/9851590/mike-pelfrey-and-the-value-of-good-defense
One thing that will make Mike Pelfrey better in Detroit? Good defense.
bybtb

My knee jerk reaction was post #32. After reading these, I calmed down a little. Still, I don't like the signing. 1 year would have been better.

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The Blessyouboys article is stretching it. There is no way to know how much defense will make, so the conclusions are reaching.

BABIP isn't just about defense. It is also about luck and talent level. BABIP, for a hitter or pitcher, normalizes over a greater sample rate. League average-wise, BABIP is generally 45 points higher than BAVG

BABIP Last 3 years Away versus OPP BAVG

M. Scherzer .293 BABIP .214 OPP BAVG = .079 (.072 career)
J. Verlander .314 BABIP .253 OPP BAVG = .061 (.057 career)
A. Sanchez .317 BABIP .261 OPP BAVG = .056 (.045 career)
D. Price .284 BABIP .230 OPP BAVG = .054 (.049 career)
J. Zimmermann .314 BABIP .264 OPP BAVG = .050 (.053 career)

R. Porcello .303 BABIP .270 OPP BAVG = .033 (.031 career)
D. Fister .312 BABIP .282 OPP BAVG = .030 (.033 career)
M. Pelfrey .343 BABIP .315 OPP BAVG = .028 (.024 career)
A. Simon .276 BABIP .255 OPP BAVG - .021

The bottom 4 are considered to be ground ball pitchers and the same conclusions can be drawn for other ground ball pitchers. They are going to have a close BABIP to their OPP BAVG.

Career vs last 3 years Away BABIP

M. Scherzer .310 Career BABIP vs .294 BABIP = -.016
A. Simon .290 Career BABIP vs .276 BABIP = -.014
R. Porcello .314 Career BABIP vs .303 BABIP = -.011
D. Price .287 Career BABIP vs .284 BABIP = -.003

J. Zimmermann .313 Career BABIP vs .314 BABIP +.001

D. Fister vs .308 Career BABIP vs .312 BABIP = +.004
A. Sanchez .310 Career BABIP vs .317 BABIP = +.007
M. Pelfrey .333 Career BABIP vs .343 BABIP = +.010
J. Verlander .301 Career BABIP vs .314 BABIP = +.013


Is the change due to defense, talent or luck? Has not Scherzer and Porcello had their best years the past 3 seasons and has not Verlander and Sanchez had their worst? That would imply change in talent or luck and not defense. BABIP is not a be all, end all stat to describing defense reaction to a ball in play. BABIP by itself tells you nothing. Coupled with a couple other stats, it can be a difference maker and only then.


Mike Pelfrey last 3 years Away
.315 BAVG .374 OBP .454 SLG .828 OPS 5.27 ERA 1.61 WHIP .343 BABIP

Mike Pelfrey Career Away
.309 BAVG .373 OBP .463 SLG .836 OPS 5.29 ERA 1.61 WHIP .333 BABIP

Pretty much the same stats despite the 10 point difference in BABIP.


Some sabermatics draw at straws to get to the conclusion they want. The BYB article cites Defensive Runs Saved (I despise DRS) as a bases for the Twins bad defense. Yet, UZR/150, Inside Edge Fielding and Total Defense had the 2015 Twins defense on par with Detroit's, or better.

2015 UZR/150 / DRS

1B
MIN 1.9 / 4
DET -6.8 / 0

2B
DET 8.5 / 20
MIN 2.6 / -4

SS
DET 8.0 / 3
MIN -2.0 / -10

3B
MIN -0.2 / 0
DET -8.7 / -7

TOTAL
MIN 2.3 / -10
DET 1.0 / 16

Hookslide has used UZR/150 in his past articles to make an argument. Now he wants to use DRS. He also only wants to use 1 year's worth of data.

If these are the same types that Detroit hired for their analytics, we are screwed. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and farts like a duck, well it must be...oh wait...a squirrel!

This organization has to have access to the same stats Reb provides. How can they look at that and think....he's our guy, let's sign him and we'll give him 8 million. No better yet, let's give him a 2 year deal for 16 million. Seriously though, when the agent discussed negotiations how did the Tigers not slide those stats across the table and say statistically Pelfrey is ranked at or near the bottom for everything.....everything.

I'm still freaking pissed at this signing. Al Avila really fucked up on this one.