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Rebbiv
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2008
11 picks in the first round. 5 of the 8 top picks by DET in that 1st round were High Schoolers.
15 of the 20 picks in the last 10 years have been pitchers.
Draft Pick "Reaching" MLB
Round 1 = 66% (70.5% 4YR players)
Round 2 = 49% (71.1% 4YR players)
Round 3-5 = 32%
Round 6-10 = 20%
Round 11-20 = 11%
Round 21-40 = 7%
Being a Career Minor Leaguer
Round 1 (4YR) = 29.5%
Round 1 (HS) = 46.5%
Round 2 (4YR) = 28.9%
Round 2 (HS) = 61.4%
Round 3 (4YR) = 56.2%
Round 3 (HS) = 64.9%
Round 4 (4YR) = 59.1%
Round 4 (HS) = 72.0%
After the first 2 rounds, the dropoff of 4YR college draftees is greater, but they still have a better odds of being an MLB player than a HS draftee.
HS Draftee = High Risk, high reward (i.e. Trout)
Bryce Harper was a Junior College draft pick
4YR Positional players are easier to forecast in the first few rounds than 4YR pitchers.
- 1 Ryan Perry RHP (4YR)
- 2 Cody Satterwaite RHP (4YR)
- 1 Jacob Turner RHP (HS)
- 2 Andy Oliver LHP (4YR)
- 1s Nick Castellanos 3B (HS)
- 1s Chance Rufffin RHP (4YR)
- 2 Drew Smyly LHP (4YR)
- 2 James McCann C (4YR)
- 2 Jake Thompson RHP (HS)
- 1 Jonathan Crawford RHP (4YR)
- 1 Corey Knebel RHP (4YR) = Closer for the Brewers
- 2 Kevin Ziomek LHP (4YR)
- 1 Derek Hill OF (HS)
- 2 Spencer Turnbull RHP (4YR)
- 1 Beau Burrows RHP (HS)
- 1 Christin Stewart OF (4YR)
- 2 Tyler Alexander LHP (4YR)
- 1 Matt Manning RHP (HS)
- 1 Alex Faedo RHP (4YR)
- 2 Rey Rivera OF (JC)
11 picks in the first round. 5 of the 8 top picks by DET in that 1st round were High Schoolers.
15 of the 20 picks in the last 10 years have been pitchers.
Draft Pick "Reaching" MLB
Round 1 = 66% (70.5% 4YR players)
Round 2 = 49% (71.1% 4YR players)
Round 3-5 = 32%
Round 6-10 = 20%
Round 11-20 = 11%
Round 21-40 = 7%
Being a Career Minor Leaguer
Round 1 (4YR) = 29.5%
Round 1 (HS) = 46.5%
Round 2 (4YR) = 28.9%
Round 2 (HS) = 61.4%
Round 3 (4YR) = 56.2%
Round 3 (HS) = 64.9%
Round 4 (4YR) = 59.1%
Round 4 (HS) = 72.0%
After the first 2 rounds, the dropoff of 4YR college draftees is greater, but they still have a better odds of being an MLB player than a HS draftee.
HS Draftee = High Risk, high reward (i.e. Trout)
Bryce Harper was a Junior College draft pick
4YR Positional players are easier to forecast in the first few rounds than 4YR pitchers.
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