2022 NFL Draft Strategy - Thru Week 13

[grandy]

Updated look at projected draft capital for potential trade partners that could potentially go QB. This is purely a mathematical assessment right now, not going to look to deep into future draft picks as their value can vary.

HOU, ATL, CAR, PIT, DEN, WFT, NO
Maybe NYG, PHI, CLE, MIA, MIN, SEA
Not going to include teams without a 1st round pick

Still left to play in week 15: OAK, CLE, MIN, CHI, SEA, LAR, WFT, PHI

Draft value chart reference: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
Draft picks reference: https://www.tankathon.com/nfl
* = comp pick

Lions
2 - 2600
24 - 740
34 - 560
66 - 260

Top 5 picks
1 - 3000
2 - 2600
3 - 2200
4 - 1800
5 - 1700

Houston
3 - 2200
36 - 550
67 - 255

Possible trades: 3 & 36 for 2 + late rounder, 3 & 67 + late rounder for 2

Atlanta
9 - 1350
41 - 490
58 - 320
73 - 225

Possible trades: Would have to basically give up their entire draft to move to 2, unless they include a future day 1/2 picks. More flexibility if Lions fall to 4 or 5.

Carolina
7 - 1400

Possible trades: Their 1st is their only pick until the 4th round, impossible without future picks

Pittsburgh
16 - 1000
48 - 430
80 - 190

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks. More flexibility if the Lions fall to 5 or 6

Denver
15 - 1050
46 - 440
56 - 340
79 - 195
88 - 150

Possible trades: See Atlanta

Washington
12 - 1200
43 - 470
74 - 220

Possible trades: See Atlanta

New Orleans
19 - 875
51 - 390
98* - 108
99* - 104

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks

NY Giants
5 - 1700
6 - 1600
37 - 530
69 - 245
78 - 200

Possible trades: 5 & 6 for 2 & 24 + late rounder; 5, 37, 69 for 2; More possibilities at 3 such as 5/6 & 37

Philadelphia
10 - 1300
14 - 1100
23 - 760
45 - 450
76 - 210

Possible trades: 10, 14, 76 for 2 + late rounder; 10, 23, 45 for 2; 14, 23, 45, 76 for 2; More flexibility if Lions fall back

Cleveland
17 - 950
49 - 410
81 - 185

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks

Miami
21 - 800
47 - 430
100* - 100

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks

Minnesota
11 - 1250
42 - 480
77 - 205

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks. More flexibility if the Lions fall to 4 or 5

Seattle
40 - 500
72 - 230

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks


Not much change from the original post - Philly and the Giants have the most capital to make a move up. Houston could potentially move up, but they probably won't have a need to. Atlanta, Denver, Washington could come into play depending on if the Lions win and/or those teams lose.

 

[grandy]

A few changes to the above post based on yesterday's games:

- Pittsburgh moves from 16 to 17
- Denver moves from 15 to 13
- Washington moves from 12 to 11
- Minnesota overtakes New Orleans in the playoff race, New Orleans moves from 19 to 14
- Giants and their Chicago traded pick swap 5 and 6
- Philadelphia's Miami pick moves from 14 to 12
- Cleveland moves from 17 to 15
- Minnesota moves from 11 to 19

Philadelphia 10 and 12 would be about equal value for 2 now (maybe with a 24/23 swap), I'd be OK with that trade but not sure how they feel about Hurts going forward.

 

[tomdalton22]

Eagles at 10 and 12 would be interesting

10, 12, 24, 32

10 Garrett Wilson or Williams from Bama

12 S. Kyle Hamilton?

24 Treylon Burks, Devon Lloyd or CB Josh Jobe

32 BPA or trade (great place to trade because teams have all night to negotiate)

 

[detroit1811]

Eagles at 10 and 12 would be interesting

10, 12, 24, 32

10 Garrett Wilson or Williams from Bama

12 S. Kyle Hamilton?

24 Treylon Burks, Devon Lloyd or CB Josh Jobe

32 BPA or trade (great place to trade because teams have all night to negotiate)

If we could pull that trade off I would be thrilled.

Jameson Williams

Devin Lloyd

David Ojabo

Best 3-4 De avaialble? DeMarvin Leal?

Bst QB available (Does Ridder or Strong slip to the top of the 3rd?) if not maybe a safety here

Re-sign Walker and get Marcus Williams.

 

[mhughes0021]

Eagles at 10 and 12 would be interesting

10, 12, 24, 32

10 Garrett Wilson or Williams from Bama

12 S. Kyle Hamilton?

24 Treylon Burks, Devon Lloyd or CB Josh Jobe

32 BPA or trade (great place to trade because teams have all night to negotiate)

That would be a fun couple of draft days! Id go...

10 Jameson Williams WR

12 Devin Lloyd LB

24 David Ojabo OLB

33 Travon Walker DE or Jordan Battle S

 

[boogerlovejoy]

That would be a fun couple of draft days! Id go...

10 Jameson Williams WR

12 Devin Lloyd LB

24 David Ojabo OLB

33 "Sauce" Gardener CB - Cincinnati

Add to that a FA list of (hopefully)

S Marcus Williams

WR Christian Kirk

Best INTERIOR OL they can get.

That is a BIG, BIG talent improvement.

 

[mhughes0021]

Add to that a FA list of (hopefully)

S Marcus Williams

WR Christian Kirk

Best INTERIOR OL they can get.

That is a BIG, BIG talent improvement.

wonder if that back up center can play RG once Ragnow is back?

 

[detroit1811]

wonder if that back up center can play RG once Ragnow is back?

I think Evan brown is the top backup at G and C next year. I was on the fence with Vatai, but he has really stepped up his play the last month. Plus Fraley and Sewell have openly said very good things about him.

 

[detroit1811]

Add to that a FA list of (hopefully)

S Marcus Williams

WR Christian Kirk

Best INTERIOR OL they can get.

That is a BIG, BIG talent improvement.

I don?t think we spend much on an interior Olineman. They love Jackson and Vatai and Brown and Kraemer can be solid depth. Maybe they grab a mid rounder, but I wouldn?t expect much more then that, IMO.

I also don?t like going after Kirk. Kirk plays the majority of his snaps out the slot and we already have a very good, cheap player there in St Brown. We need a WR with some size or a WR that can stretch the field.

DJ Chark is a lanky guy who can really stretch the field. He should also be reasonable coming off an injury. Combine him with a bigger guy like Burks or London maybe. I want a WR who is big, is great at 50/50 balls and a threat in the red zone. Mike Williams and Allen Robinson are the cream of the crop in FA but not sure if they would come here or if we want to spend that much.

 

[LKP]

If Lynn is back, Mike Williams might come here

 

[boogerlovejoy]

I don?t think we spend much on an interior Olineman. They love Jackson and Vatai and Brown and Kraemer can be solid depth. Maybe they grab a mid rounder, but I wouldn?t expect much more then that, IMO.

I also don?t like going after Kirk. Kirk plays the majority of his snaps out the slot and we already have a very good, cheap player there in St Brown. We need a WR with some size or a WR that can stretch the field.

DJ Chark is a lanky guy who can really stretch the field. He should also be reasonable coming off an injury. Combine him with a bigger guy like Burks or London maybe. I want a WR who is big, is great at 50/50 balls and a threat in the red zone. Mike Williams and Allen Robinson are the cream of the crop in FA but not sure if they would come here or if we want to spend that much.

Vaitai is not going to be here next year, almost certainly. I forgot about Brown. I know he has played really well at times. So that is a good point.

Not a fan of Chark. Productive when he plays. Hasn't played much the last 2 years. I like the versatility a guy like Kirk would bring. Can play inside or out (just hasn't played much outside because of DHop and Green). Good after the catch. Stretches the field. Wouldn't be expensive. Guy is 5-11, 200 lbs so he is very solidly built.

Hey, as long as the add a good outside WR via the draft or FA i will be happy. I just hate the Chark injury history.

I want nothing to do with Allen Robinson. The Bears offense is hot garbage, but he will be 29 before the start of next season. I don't want any part of giving a 29 year old a contract of more than a year or two and I doubt that's what he'll be looking for.

If I were him, I'd punch Matt Nagy in the face for how much money he's cost Robinson this last year. That offense is pathetic.

 

[grandy]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...oe-judge-daniel-jones-2022-season-sources-say

Giants reportedly sticking with Judge and Jones next year. I wouldn?t say QB is for sure off the table, but looking less likely at this point.

 

[grandy]

Updated look after today


Potential QB teams:

HOU, ATL, CAR, PIT, DEN, WFT, NO
Maybe NYG, PHI, CLE, MIA, MIN, SEA
Not going to include teams without a 1st round pick

Still left to play in week 16: WFT, DAL, MIA, NO

Draft value chart reference: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
Draft picks reference: https://www.tankathon.com/nfl
* = comp pick
b = moved back since last update
u = moved up since last update

Lions
2 - 2600
30 - 620 b
34 - 560
66 - 260
97* - 112

Top 5 picks
1 - 3000
2 - 2600
3 - 2200
4 - 1800
5 - 1700

Houston
3 - 2200
37 - 530 b
68 - 250 b

Possible trades: 3 & 37 for 2 + late rounder, 3 & 68 + mid rounder for 2

Atlanta
10 - 1300 b
45 - 450 b
61 - 292 b
76 - 210 b

Possible trades: Would have to basically give up their entire draft to move to 2, unless they include a future day 1/2 picks. More flexibility if Lions fall to 4 or 5.

Carolina
6 - 1600 u

Possible trades: Their 1st is their only pick until the 4th round, impossible without future picks

Pittsburgh
16 - 1000
47 - 430 u
78 - 200 u

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks. More flexibility if the Lions fall to 5

Denver
11 - 1250 u
42 - 480 u
62 - 284 b
77 - 205 u
94 - 124 b

Possible trades: See Atlanta

Washington
9 - 1350 u
41 - 490 u
73 - 225 u

Possible trades: See Atlanta

New Orleans
15 - 1050 u
46 - 440 u
98* - 108
99* - 104

Possible trades: See Pittsburgh

NY Giants
5 - 1700
8 - 1400 b
36 - 540 u
67 - 255 u
79 - 195 b

Possible trades: 5, 8, 36 for 2 + late rounder; 5, 36, 67 + late rounder for 2; 5, 36, 67, 79 for 2 + mid rounder

Philadelphia
14 - 1100 b
19 - 875 b
23 - 760
53 - 370 b
84 - 170 b

Possible trades: 14, 19, 23 for 2 + mid rounder; More flexibility if Lions fall back

Cleveland
13 - 1150 u
44 - 460 u
75 - 215 u

Possible trades: See Pittsburgh

Miami
21 - 800
48 - 420 b
100* - 100

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks

Minnesota
12 - 1200 b
43 - 470 b
74 - 220 u

Possible trades: See Pittsburgh

Seattle
38 - 520 u
72 - 230

Possible trades: Impossible without future picks


Washington stands pat with a loss tonight, could move all the way back to 13 with a win. Philadelphia's Miami pick could move up to 11 with a Miami loss tomorrow, not sure about playoff tiebreakers with a Miami win, NO loss moves them up to about 13.

 

[mhughes0021]

Spent a little time YouTube scouting the wr class today... ya I was bored.

Jameson Williams is the most explosive wr in the class. Jahan Dotson is my second most explosive wr.

Treylon Burks and Garrett Wilson I have as 1a and 1b as the best outside the hash wrs. Drake London is right behind them. Drake reminds me of a kenny golladay that runs better routes. Long body that high points the ball really well and has great hands. Could be a solid top of rd 2 prospect.

Chris olave is the best possession wr. Him and David bell are kind of tweeners that aren't that true #1 size but can play on the outside. They run great routes and have great hands... but probabaly belong in the slot in the nfl.

 

[gotime909]

What about 5 and 8 for 2 and 30 woth the giants?

 

[grandy]

What about 5 and 8 for 2 and 30 woth the giants?

That would work, looks like I messed up the numbers in my last post. 5/8 for 2/30 or 2/34. That said, I'm skeptical now of any Giants interest in QB with the recent committal to Judge/Jones. Could just be talk though, Gettleman likely won't be GM next year and not sure a GM wants to take over a franchise that insists on keeping the current HC and QB.

 

[mhughes0021]

Personally id do the 5 and 8 trade in a heartbeat and grab my 2 favorite players in the draft. Jameson Williams and devin Lloyd. Talk about getting game changing players on both sides of the ball.

 

[detroit1811]

That would work, looks like I messed up the numbers in my last post. 5/8 for 2/30 or 2/34. That said, I'm skeptical now of any Giants interest in QB with the recent committal to Judge/Jones. Could just be talk though, Gettleman likely won't be GM next year and not sure a GM wants to take over a franchise that insists on keeping the current HC and QB.

Giants desperately need an edge rusher and Hutchinson and Thib will be gone by then.

Unless we get really good value in a trade down I would like to come away with Hamilton, Hutchinson, or Thib in this draft. As much as I like both Williams and Lloyd, I don't think they are in the same class as these guys. Along with Evan Neal, and Stingley, these are the only true blue chip prospects in this class.

 

[zyxt9]

After sending Quinn and Patricia to fuck us over, the Pats need to pay us back by losing to the Jags.

I keep reading that the Jags need better OL to protect TL... is that BS, or is there potential for them to go OL? Or does that likely give them more incentive to trade back where the OLs are projected and open the door for someone, say NYG, to trade up?

 

[mhughes0021]

Giants desperately need an edge rusher and Hutchinson and Thib will be gone by then.

Unless we get really good value in a trade down I would like to come away with Hamilton, Hutchinson, or Thib in this draft. As much as I like both Williams and Lloyd, I don't think they are in the same class as these guys. Along with Evan Neal, and Stingley, these are the only true blue chip prospects in this class.

Gotta say I'm not a fan of kyle Hamilton. He looks like a less athletic lenkier version of Isiah simmons... and makes alot less plays.