Lots of Tigers draft thoughts from Chris Brown from TigsTown. Used to do the Locked On Tigers Podcast.
https://247sports.com/mlb/tigers/Ar...k-Back-at-Draft-Pick-Success-Rates-129495440/
Weekly Draft Report: A Look Back at Draft Pick Success Rates.
TigsTown
https://247sports.com/mlb/tigers/Ar...he-Detroit-Tigers-Rebuilding-Guide-115413713/
Drafting for Dummies: Part 2 - Detroit Tigers Rebuilding Guide.
TigsTown
If you want a quick summary...high-school outfielders bust at a higher rate (45%) than every other position group outside of lefty high-school starters, but when they make it they offer the 5th most average value.
College third basemen taken in the top 50 have a very low bust rate (about 18%), on average they provide the most value of any position group, and they produce their first 2-WAR season faster than any other position group.
Andre Lipcius is a solid three-year performer in the SEC, and he hit well in the Cape Cod League last year (.313/.391/.456). Fairly young for a college player. This one seems like it might be an analytics pick?
Kreidler is another potential third baseman. Might stick at short, but not much of a hitter. Very interesting draft so far...
Don't read too much into the ranks you might see online. There are tiers in the draft and the difference between the 40th prospect and the 200th prospect is paper thin.
Not a positive or a negative, really, just a somewhat unusual position mix so far, particularly for the Tigers. They've only taken ONE infielder in the first five rounds since 2011 (Kody Clemens). Then they take three in one draft, and all three fit best at third base.
East Carolina's Bryant Packard is a bat-first LF/1B who had a monster sophomore year (.406 and 14HR). Talented hitter with above-average power but not much defensive value.
The last time the Tigers began the draft with five consecutive position players was 2011. The players? C James McCann, 1B Aaron Westlake, 3B Jason King, SS Brandon Loy, and OF Tyler Collins.
Had the Tigers taking Hess in my mock last year, but not this year. Bounced back and forth between the LSU bullpen and the rotation. Has good stuff, fits best as a reliever.
Jack Kenley, the Tigers' 8th rounder this year, and Jeremiah Burks, their 8th rounder from last year, are very different prospects, but alike in an interesting way. Neither of them played much until their junior seasons. Burks got 110 ABs in his first two seasons, Kenley just 84.
Then as a junior Burks hit .340/.415/.544 with 9 homers and 12 steals for Fresno State, with 19BB and and 56K
As a junior Kenley hit .320/.443/.584 with 12 homers and 8 steals for Arkansas, with 38BB and 48K
Austin Bergner the second pitcher the Tigers have taken. Has been a famous name but never really lived up to the billing as a starter for North Carolina. Was good as a freshman reliever, though, and probably returns to that role.
FB into mid-90's with excellent life, CH plays really well off of the FB, CB has been up and down, flashes hammer. Good upside here, we had him in the 5th.
Tigers go "infield" again. Creighton 1B/DH Jake Holton, who hit .386 with 14 homers, and it's hard to hit for power at TD Ameritrade Park. Very clearly looking to add power to the system this year.
That?s it for the Tigers top ten picks:
Nine college players
One high schooler
Two right-handed pitchers
Two outfielders
Five infielders
One catcher
Four players from the SEC
Two players from the Pac-12
One player from the ACC
One player from the AAC
One player from the Big East
Day Three of the MLB Draft, rounds 11-40. A few months back I looked at draft success rates in the later rounds, and here's what to expect:
900 picks (obviously)
~600 will sign
~45 will make the Majors
~10 will go on to have at least one 2-WAR season
Interesting pick for the Tigers in the 11th round. Was a two-way player in his first two seasons with Texas Tech. Has plus power, but also gets into the upper 90s as a reliever.
12th round - SS Corey Joyce - A three-year performer in college has some speed but didn't face much great competition and probably moves to 2B.
13th - LHP Matt Walker - Arm strength but poor results. Still 20.
14th - RHP Ted Stuka - First DII pick for them. Big and tall reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a solid splitter.
15th - LHP - Ohio State's closer this year. Low-90s with funk and good curve. Came out of the bullpen in the regionals on Saturday and struck out 12 in 7.1 IP.
17th Round - A.J. Block - lefty with upper 80s FB, mid-70s slurve, and brutal results this year (0-8, 6.06 ERA). WHY??
18th - Jared Mang - OF, first senior sign this year, among national leaders in doubles.
19th - Kerry Carpenter - Another OF, cooled off after hot start this year.
Tigers 20th round pick is Andrew Navigato, of Oklahoma State. Aggressive swinger with some power. Decent glove up the middle. His older brother might also get drafted today.
21st Round - Scott McKeon - Aggressive swinger with bat to ball skills. Played some SS, but a 2B in pro ball
22nd - Cole Zabowski - Big first baseman. Strength over bat speed, but solid glove.
Tigers have now drafted 8 infielders and 14 position players in their first 22 picks.
Teams can offer up to $125K after the 10th round without it counting against their bonus pool. The Rangers took college seniors in the 5th and 10th rounds, which could give them another $450K to play with, so they could offer him half a million or more.
12th round - SS Corey Joyce - A three-year performer in college has some speed but didn't face much great competition and probably moves to 2B.
13th - LHP Matt Walker - Arm strength but poor results. Still 20.
14th - RHP Ted Stuka - First DII pick for them. Big and tall reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a solid splitter.
15th - LHP - Ohio State's closer this year. Low-90s with funk and good curve. Came out of the bullpen in the regionals on Saturday and struck out 12 in 7.1 IP
#Tigers announce over draft call for 11th round that they have signed their first-round pick, Riley Greene
Interesting pick for the Tigers in the 11th round. Was a two-way player in his first two seasons with Texas Tech. Has plus power, but also gets into the upper 90s as a reliever.
17th Round - A.J. Block - lefty with upper 80s FB, mid-70s slurve, and brutal results this year (0-8, 6.06 ERA)
18th - Jared Mang - OF, first senior sign this year, among national leaders in doubles.
19th - Kerry Carpenter - Another OF, cooled off after hot start this year
Tigers 20th round pick is Andrew Navigato, of Oklahoma State. Aggressive swinger with some power. Decent glove up the middle. His older brother might also get drafted today.
Kona Quiggle one of the better names in the draft. Another kid who didn't play much until this year, when he led Grand Canyon in homers. Hitting a work in progress, fits best in outfield corner.
Still plenty of interesting college pitchers available, should the Tigers go that route. Lots of strong JuCo and prep arms remaining, but I'm not sure the club saved enough money to really make a run at them.
Day Three of the MLB Draft, rounds 11-40. A few months back I looked at draft success rates in the later rounds, and here's what to expect:
900 picks (obviously)
~600 will sign
~45 will make the Majors
~10 will go on to have at least one 2-WAR season
Went down a baseball financial rules rabbit hole last night... A few conclusions, Tigers related.
If I were to point to any trends in this draft, it's what appears to be a very concerted effort to go after position players with power potential.
No real significance, I don't think. This is pretty much their M.O. over the last 15 years or so...basically since David Chadd arrived. They took one or zero high schoolers in the top ten in 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2008, 2006, and 2005.
That?s it for the Tigers top ten picks:
Nine college players
One high schooler
Two right-handed pitchers
Two outfielders
Five infielders
One catcher
Four players from the SEC
Two players from the Pac-12
One player from the ACC
One player from the AAC
One player from the Big East
Michael Bienlien is not the reliever I had the Tigers taking from N.C. State, but he's got a good arm. Low 90s with sink as a starter, mid-90s as reliever. Strikes are option.
Lefty starter Josh Coburn from Kennesaw State has been into the mid-90s with his fastball. Struggles to miss bats and throw strikes.
26th Round ? Brenan White ? Solid three-year starter at Sienna College
27th ? Beau Brieske ? Ranked 10th in DII in strikeouts, but gave up 99 hits in 79.2IP
28th ? Connor Perry ? Lefty OF hit 15 bombs for Pittsburgh as a senior. Once cut by DII team.
29th Round ? Cary Elliot ? First NAIA pick and first relative. Began career at Oregon State, hit .303 with 12 HR this year
30th ? Cordell Dunn ? First JuCo. College catcher announced at third baseman. Strong arm, raw pop
Will see them start to take unsignable HS kids soon
31st Round ? Bryce Tassin a reliever at SE Louisiana St. Spent last summer pitching in Alaska.
32nd ? Jack Dellinger began at Purdue move to Va Tech. Long arm action, flashes ab-average breaker.
33rd ? Jimmy Kerr 1B for Michigan this year. Broke out as senior with 12 HR.
34th Round ? Sam Kessler worked as West Virginia?s closer this year. Good slider. Gave up walk-off grand slam to end the WVU season the other day. Not really his fault?was his 65th pitch.
35th ? LHP Robert Klinchock first DIII pick for the Tigers. Put up a 4.27 ERA in 14 GS.
Tigers 36th rounder Pavin Parks played shortstop and pitched in relief for Kent State this year. Drafted as an infielder, where he hit 11 homers and walked 36 times. Also struck out 32 in 25.2 innings this year.
Tigers 37th rounder is the 5'9 lefty Kolton Ingram, who put up a 4.59 ERA this year, but was among the DII leaders in ERA and strikeouts last year.
Tigers 38th rounder Dan Pruitt is a giant (6'6, 245) first baseman who hit a paltry .481 with 22 homers and 24 steals for Western Oklahoma State. JuCo stats are silly. He'll probably head to Dallas Baptist and hope to improve his stock next year.
And there it is, another high schooler. They won't sign him, but the Tigers take LSU commit Cade Doughty in the 39th round. He's a top-100 talent this year who can hit and should develop some power in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers' final pick is Gianluca Dalatri, a well-known pitcher from the University of North Carolina who has struggled with injuries and has fringe stuff across the board.
That's it for the draft this year! On to the 2020 class, which looks very strong right now. Could see 6 or more SEC pitchers go in the top 20 overall.
It's not a huge change, because even when they took seven or eight high schoolers in one draft they rarely signed more than one. If there's a strategy to it I think it's just to add a handful more late-round fliers each year in the hopes they get lucky.
