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thewolverines24
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7 PM Eastern on ESPN.
KEYS
Win the foul battle at the five: Hunter Dickinson has to stay on the floor for Michigan to win this game. He can?t gamble and commit the type of fouls he committed against Bacot last season. He can?t set illegal screens or get caught up in any ticky-tacky calls, and if Bacot gets an offensive rebound, he can?t foul him to compound the issue. Michigan needs the best version of Dickinson, and if he brings that sort of effort, then it has a chance. North Carolina is the only team in the country ranked in the top 20 in offensive and defensive free-throw rate and averages over five free-throw attempts more than its opponents.
Keep the guards in check: Caleb Love and RJ Davis will get at least a dozen shot attempts a piece, and the key is what they do with them. This is a huge defensive test for Kobe Bufkin and Dug McDaniel, but the reality is that Michigan has struggled to contain the dribble and defend ball screens all year. It?s a scary matchup against a backcourt duo that gave the Wolverines fits last season. I?ll be curious how aggressively the Wolverines defend and help against Love and Davis. On one hand, forcing tough twos and pull-up shot attempts sounds better than a barrage of dropoff passes and dunks, but UNC also doesn?t have elite 3-point shooting off the catch.
Ball screen offense: The answer to attacking UNC?s (questionable at times) defense isn?t banging it inside head-to-head against Bacot. Michigan would be best served to get to its ball screen offense, spread the Tar Heels out, and try to find Dickinson rolling to the rim. This isn?t a game that Michigan wins with 25 post-ups for Dickinson; it is a game that Michigan wins because its ball screen offense works first, and Dickinson on the block works second. Both are necessary to beat Carolina.
Maintain control: Michigan?s undoing this season has been getting sped up in critical moments. Jett Howard and Dug McDaniel have had their fair share of freshman moments on both ends of the floor. Purging those from the system is a prerequisite to winning in hostile territory. This game will tell us a lot about Dug McDaniel and how ready he is for Big Ten play because he?ll need to control the game, defend great players and unlock his teammates offensively.
MATCHUPS
Davis ? McDaniel
Love ? Bufkin
Black ? Howard
Nance ? Williams
Bacot ? Dickinson
Both teams will ride their starting five, and the head-to-head matchups are pretty straightforward. While they line up positionally, North Carolina has an experience and talent edge at the 1, 2, and 4, and its best defender can easily guard Jett Howard. There?s not a matchup to pick on for Michigan, but the reality is that both teams have struggled to defend consistently this year and play lackadaisical ball screen defense. That means the outcome will likely come down to which team is hitting more shots out of their ball screen offense.
BOTTOM LINE
This is a significant moment in Michigan?s season. A win would make up for lost ground in the non-conference slate and provide a jumping-off point ahead of conference play in January. A loss would mean that Michigan?s best non-conference victory would be against Pittsburgh ? nothing to brag about but aging decently ? and mean that the Wolverines need to do a lot of work in Big Ten play to make the NCAA Tournament.
There are plenty of opportunities to improve the resume in league play ? almost every conference game will be Q1 or Q2 ? but Michigan won?t be favored in most of those games. KenPom pegs Michigan as 78-73 underdogs and gives the Wolverines a 32% chance at the upset.
Go Blue!
KEYS
Win the foul battle at the five: Hunter Dickinson has to stay on the floor for Michigan to win this game. He can?t gamble and commit the type of fouls he committed against Bacot last season. He can?t set illegal screens or get caught up in any ticky-tacky calls, and if Bacot gets an offensive rebound, he can?t foul him to compound the issue. Michigan needs the best version of Dickinson, and if he brings that sort of effort, then it has a chance. North Carolina is the only team in the country ranked in the top 20 in offensive and defensive free-throw rate and averages over five free-throw attempts more than its opponents.
Keep the guards in check: Caleb Love and RJ Davis will get at least a dozen shot attempts a piece, and the key is what they do with them. This is a huge defensive test for Kobe Bufkin and Dug McDaniel, but the reality is that Michigan has struggled to contain the dribble and defend ball screens all year. It?s a scary matchup against a backcourt duo that gave the Wolverines fits last season. I?ll be curious how aggressively the Wolverines defend and help against Love and Davis. On one hand, forcing tough twos and pull-up shot attempts sounds better than a barrage of dropoff passes and dunks, but UNC also doesn?t have elite 3-point shooting off the catch.
Ball screen offense: The answer to attacking UNC?s (questionable at times) defense isn?t banging it inside head-to-head against Bacot. Michigan would be best served to get to its ball screen offense, spread the Tar Heels out, and try to find Dickinson rolling to the rim. This isn?t a game that Michigan wins with 25 post-ups for Dickinson; it is a game that Michigan wins because its ball screen offense works first, and Dickinson on the block works second. Both are necessary to beat Carolina.
Maintain control: Michigan?s undoing this season has been getting sped up in critical moments. Jett Howard and Dug McDaniel have had their fair share of freshman moments on both ends of the floor. Purging those from the system is a prerequisite to winning in hostile territory. This game will tell us a lot about Dug McDaniel and how ready he is for Big Ten play because he?ll need to control the game, defend great players and unlock his teammates offensively.
MATCHUPS
Davis ? McDaniel
Love ? Bufkin
Black ? Howard
Nance ? Williams
Bacot ? Dickinson
Both teams will ride their starting five, and the head-to-head matchups are pretty straightforward. While they line up positionally, North Carolina has an experience and talent edge at the 1, 2, and 4, and its best defender can easily guard Jett Howard. There?s not a matchup to pick on for Michigan, but the reality is that both teams have struggled to defend consistently this year and play lackadaisical ball screen defense. That means the outcome will likely come down to which team is hitting more shots out of their ball screen offense.
BOTTOM LINE
This is a significant moment in Michigan?s season. A win would make up for lost ground in the non-conference slate and provide a jumping-off point ahead of conference play in January. A loss would mean that Michigan?s best non-conference victory would be against Pittsburgh ? nothing to brag about but aging decently ? and mean that the Wolverines need to do a lot of work in Big Ten play to make the NCAA Tournament.
There are plenty of opportunities to improve the resume in league play ? almost every conference game will be Q1 or Q2 ? but Michigan won?t be favored in most of those games. KenPom pegs Michigan as 78-73 underdogs and gives the Wolverines a 32% chance at the upset.
Go Blue!
