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Peter King Has An Excellent Breakdown of Stafford Trade

detroit1811

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/01/m...-stafford-trade-negotiations-los-angeles-rams

MMQB: Inside the Trade Negotiations That Gave Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay What They Wanted

It was 6:45 p.m. in Los Angeles, and 9:45 p.m. in Detroit when the Rams and Lions jumped on a six-way FaceTime call and, true to 2020 form (even if it is 2021), there were technical difficulties. L.A. inner-circlers Kevin Demoff, Les Snead and Tony Pastoors were apart and in their own separate boxes on the screen, while the Detroit brass of Rod Wood, Brad Holmes and Mike Disner were gathered in together in a meeting room on their phones.

As you might imagine, the group setting on one end of Saturday night?s megadeal was causing consternation?via an annoying echo created by Lion voices showing up on each other?s phones?on the other end of the call.

?Mute your mic!? said one of the guys in California.

Appropriate, given the teams were about create the first mic-dropping moment of an offseason that?s coming with the promise of quarterbacking chaos.


Minutes later, the deal was done. Matthew Stafford got what he wanted. Sean McVay got what he wanted. And the Lions, in an admittedly-rebuilding posture, walked away with a massive haul. First-round picks in 2022 and ?23. A third-round pick in 2021. Likely starting quarterback for next fall, Jared Goff. A new, fresh start for Holmes and Campbell.

Meanwhile, once the deal was agreed to, some 1,100 miles south of L.A., McVay and Stafford were sitting down for dinner to celebrate a fresh start of their own, near the Chileno Bay Resort in Los Cabos, Mexico, with Stafford?s wife Kelly and McVay?s fianc?e Veronika. The coach and his new quarterback happened to be among a number of NFL people in Cabo last week?Saints coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees, Rams LT Andrew Whitworth and others were nearby, too, over the last few days.


A wild coincidence, to be sure, in a really wild few days that landed Stafford in his preferred new destination and McVay his preferred new quarterback. For both, there are things that they?re letting go of. Stafford?s saying goodbye to the only professional home he?s known in his 12 years in the NFL. McVay?s bidding farewell to a 26-year-old quarterback, in Goff, he built around during his first four years as a head coach, and grew a great appreciation for.

All the same, under the moon in Mexico, this was a time for everyone to embrace what?s ahead. As you might imagine, for those at the table, there was a lot to look forward to.

The Matthew Stafford sweepstakes lasted, in essence, seven days. And while the Lions certainly had the idea that they wanted it to happen quickly in the back of their minds?to get ahead of quarterbacks potentially flooding the market and bending the supply/demand curve, or Deshaun Watson turning Stafford into a consolation prize?there was no telling how quickly things would materialize.

They got their answer quickly, with interest rising fast in a quarterback that the NFL was resoundingly, if implicitly, endorsing as a star with the way the market for his services exploded.

Detroit, really, had been set up for this for a while. Stafford made his desires known to owner Sheila Ford Hamp and president Rod Wood the day after the season ended, and it was on the mind of the Lions brass as the group went through interviewing GM and coaching candidates. In fact, it was one area in which Holmes, who worked under Snead and helped evaluate Goff in 2016, distinguished himself.

In Holmes?s first interview with Detroit, he explained the process of picking Goff, and how the Rams had decided to take him over Carson Wentz five years ago. Back for a second interview, after being apprised of the situation with Stafford, rather that recoil, his excitement reverberated?not to move the team off Stafford, but for how he?d handle such a big-ticket situation, from getting value for the quarterback to finding his replacement.


Little did he know how soon all of it would come into play.

News of Stafford?s availability emerged two Saturdays ago, which is part of why the Lions figured dispatching Disner and Holmes to Mobile for the Senior Bowl?where they could meet with other teams?would be smart. The two came back late in the week with multiple teams willing to throw a first-round pick in the ring.

Word was that Stafford?s preferred destinations were, in order, the Rams, Niners and Colts. And while the Lions were always going to do what was best for the Lions (and Stafford didn?t have a no-trade clause to commandeer the process), they were also cognizant of what their former No. 1 pick wanted.

By the time things started to come to a boiling point, the Lions had an initial offer from the Rams (their 2022 first-rounder, Goff, and an additional pick) that wasn?t going to cut it. But it was that interest from the Rams?and that it became public on Friday night, via a report from ESPN?s Jeremy Fowler?that prompted a frenzy to land Stafford. By Saturday, the market had crystallized.

? Both Washington and Carolina had offered their first-round picks and then some. The Panthers? first-rounder is eighth (that wound up being the highest pick offered) and their proposal came with a later pick. Washington packaged a third-round pick with the 19th pick.


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? The Colts discussed packages of picks and players, but never actually wound up offering their first-rounder, the 21st pick.

? The Niners talked to the Lions in Mobile, but at the time were a little lukewarm and never made an official offer. They?d planned to circle back with Detroit after the weekend, but when things escalated Saturday and the Lions called back, the price had gone beyond what they were willing to offer (in part because they?re fine going forward with Jimmy Garoppolo). My sense is the 12th pick was never going to be offered.

? The Broncos discussed a pick swap with the Lions that would have equated to a late first-round pick, but it wound up becoming clear to Denver that they weren?t playing in the neighborhood where this was going.

? The Patriots and Bears both checked in. New England was willing to package a second-rounder with a player to get Stafford, which, when added to the Patriots? absence on a list of preferred destinations (something my buddy Tom Curran reported on Sunday) quickly eliminated Bill Belichick & Co. from the chase.

? And finally, late Friday, the Jets checked in. The Lions circled back with New York on Saturday, but talks didn?t go very far.


That gave the Lions more than a quarter of the NFL in on the Stafford Derby?again, indicating just what the NFL thinks of No. 9. It also gave Hamp, Wood and Disner the knowledge that they?d accomplish a goal of theirs by giving Holmes the ammo to do what?s at the heart of what got him into that GM chair, and that?s evaluating college players, maximizing draft picks and, ultimately, building a strong, younger roster as a result.

Anyway, by midday on Saturday, Washington and Carolina had emerged as the favorites to land Stafford, and the Lions came to the realization that a deal could be in the offing. But if they?d guessed at that point where Stafford was going, they?d have probably been wrong.

Former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford
Raj Mehta/USA TODAY Sports

***

It?s been two weeks since the Rams were eliminated from the NFC playoffs in the divisional round, and the way the season ended left plenty for interpretation. Goff was injured in Week 16, missed the team?s Week 17 game, then came off the bench after John Wolford started in his place in the wild-card round. Snead and McVay declining to commit to Goff as their 2021 starter turned heads, for sure, and provided a clue.


While the Rams were fine going forward with Goff and Wolford as their quarterbacks, just two years after signing Goff to a four-year, $134 million extension, the team was also very open to taking advantage of the expected unprecedented quarterback movement to come.

This, really, is who the Rams have become since returning to L.A. five years ago. For better or worse, there?s been absolutely no fear to flip draft capital for established stars, a trend that actually started right after the team flipped a group of picks to move up in the draft and land Goff himself. And with uncertainty over whether Watson or others would be available later in the winter, the Rams homed in on Stafford.

But talking about it was always going to be a lot easier than pulling it off. The Rams? deal with Goff was, for the most part, ironclad for the next two years?$43 million of the $54.3 million he?s due is fully guaranteed with no offset language (meaning his signing with another team offered no relief)?making what was necessary in getting Stafford (shedding Goff) complicated. In essence, absent finding a taker for the deal, cutting Goff before paying him the $54.3 million over the next two years would have meant paying out the $43 million.


That forced the Rams to be flexible with the Lions, who had the aforementioned strong offers, but really did like the idea of getting a legitimate starting quarterback for Dan Campbell out of the deal. Making it even tougher was the fact the Rams didn?t have a first-round pick, their 2021 slot gone as the last piece of the Jalen Ramsey trade, which only gave the Lions impetus to ask for more.

Two things worked to buoy the Rams? interest, and the first was McVay?s personal drive to get the deal done.

Along those lines, McVay was the one who called Rams owner Stan Kroenke on Saturday to sign off on the team going the extra mile to get it done, spurred by some extra tape work he and Snead did. That work only cemented what McVay loved about Stafford already?how quickly he processes, his pocket movement, his play urgency, his ability to throw off platform or in rhythm and his tough, fearless style?which pushed Snead into the mode where he was going into the afternoon with the intention of getting a deal done.

The second thing was that everyone the Rams asked loved and believed in Stafford. And that wound up including McVay himself, who happened to have a casual friendship with him. McVay is buddies with Bills receivers coach Chad Hall, from the days when the two were star high school quarterbacks in the Atlanta area (McVay at Marist, Hall at Wesleyan), and Hall?s sister happens to be ? Kelly Hall Stafford.


Before this week, the Stafford/McVay relationship wasn?t a whole lot more than saying hello and maybe hanging out a little before games and at events. But it was enough for the Rams to match what they were hearing on Stafford with McVay?s own experience.

So, really, as afternoon turned to night on Saturday in Detroit, the Lions? brass stayed in the office, and kept Hamp fully abreast of the situation?a deal most certainly could happen.

***

Jared Goff will reportedly have competition for the starting quarterback job if he remains on the Rams in 2021.
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports

On paper, the return looks a little wild. But the Rams? perspective on the deal was a little different than most.

First, as they saw it, if the first-round picks wind up being in the 20s (or later), then they?d have given up about what, on a points basis, Carolina was offering with the eighth overall pick. The old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart puts the eighth pick at 1,400 points, making it equal to two 26th overall picks (700 each). And getting a clean break on Goff, and offloading his deal, rather than having to smoke out suitors under duress was a big benefit.


The third-rounder they?re giving up this year, interestingly enough, they?ll essentially get back as a comp pick for the Lions? hire of Holmes.

And Snead?s department has found a way to dig out guys like Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, John Johnson, Taylor Rapp, Samson Ebukam, Gerald Everett, Jordan Fuller, Darious Williams, and Sebastian Joseph-Day outside the first round over the last few years. Of course, with a top-heavy salary structure, and no first-rounders the next three years, it?s going to be more essential to do it now than ever. But the Rams have shown they can.

With all this in mind, the Rams? front office moved forward, knowing that, at the very least, it had to beat a current-year top-10 pick to get Stafford. As the group worked on it, a couple things came up. One was that Brees and Aaron Rodgers had only been to one Super Bowl apiece, Russell Wilson hadn?t been back to the NFC title game in five years and Ben Roethlisberger had only gone that far once since his last Super Bowl, 10 years ago. Another was a stat that a member of the brass saw on social media.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford, in 166 starts, has only had a 100-yard rusher 11 times.


Both things reinforced, to everyone in the room, how hard it is to win in the NFL, and how important it is, when you have a team you think is capable of making to the top, to give it every chance?even if that means walking away from a quarterback who?s second in wins to Tom Brady over the last four years (Goff is, with 42).

And in the weird circumstances of 2020, it meant Snead, Demoff, and Pastoors getting the deal done over FaceTime, out of the office and in different spots outside of L.A., with McVay hunting down his new quarterback to celebrate in Mexico in the aftermath.

So Stafford?s a Ram, under contract for the next two years at a relative bargain price of $43 million, and set to turn 33 on Super Bowl Sunday, and the message this sends to all of his soon-to-be-teammates couldn?t be clearer: The brain trust believes the team is ready to win very big and win very big right now.

Maybe it?ll work, and Stafford will be holding a trophy a year from now. Maybe it won?t, and the roster will be in ruins a couple years down the line, cap-strapped and bereft of young talent.

Either way, this mic-dropping moment for the Rams will echo for years to come.
 
That was a fascinating read, love how he broke everything down.
 
• FYI. The Rams were not the only team to offer two first-round picks to Detroit for Stafford. Not sure of the team, but I know there was at least one other offer with two ones—and that offer did not stretch the first-rounders out as far as L.A.’s proposal.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-super-bowl-rams-lions-trade-fmia-peter-king/

The one other thing Holmes knew but wasn’t spreading around: Detroit coach Dan Campbell liked Goff better than the other quarterbacks in the Stafford trade derby: Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Lock. Now the Lions have five first-round picks in the next three years for the post-Stafford rebuild. All in all, a very good weekend for Holmes and the Lions.

I wonder what team that might have been (New England?) I much rather have Goff then any of those other guys. Only upside there was Lock, and thats only because he is on a second round contract.
 
Good article

Stafford is loved by the league. We all should have known that

Lots offers and got lots of draft capital and QB they believe in
 
The only problem I have with it is it seems that Holmes made the trade based on how Stafford felt and his former team. I don't know if the other trades were better or not since there's no concrete evidence of what the were exactly .. but it didn't seem like it was "Detroit comes first" type trade. It was like Holmes was doing the Rams a solid. No team in a full rebuild would trade for a QB like Goff making that kind of money.

Weather it works or not that part bothers me.
 
So they didn't give us "an extra 1st" to take on his contract. Sounds like he had value to other teams too.

Goff may not be elite but he?s an above average starting QB. A handful of NFL teams would take Goff and his contract w a smile, including two teams in our division.
 
The only problem I have with it is it seems that Holmes made the trade based on how Stafford felt and his former team. I don't know if the other trades were better or not since there's no concrete evidence of what the were exactly .. but it didn't seem like it was "Detroit comes first" type trade. It was like Holmes was doing the Rams a solid. No team in a full rebuild would trade for a QB like Goff making that kind of money.

Weather it works or not that part bothers me.

His money is not that bad. You keep acting like its top of the QB market money when its not. I believe it's around 10th for now in QB's and will be around 15th with all the new deals that will have to be done soon.
 
Wouldn't we have even more dead cap money if we moved him this quickly? That would probably hamstring us hard to trade him. I see us having him at least 2 years, after that 0 dead cap to get rid of him.
 
Wouldn't we have even more dead cap money if we moved him this quickly? That would probably hamstring us hard to trade him. I see us having him at least 2 years, after that 0 dead cap to get rid of him.

No if he was traded we would completely shed his salary and not have any dead money because another team is picking that up. If he was released we would get him with a ton of dead money.
 
Over last 4 years, Goff is 2nd to only Brady in wins.

But yeah, keep bitching about this trade.

No, I do not expect Goff to win many games in 2021 due to the lack of talent on the team, but 2022, I bet the Lions are in the mix to win the division. Rogers will be declining, possibly not even starting, as Packers decline...Bears and Vikes might be good, but it is likely Lions will be a far better team. Goff will be in his 2nd season and more experienced in his new offense.
 
Over last 4 years, Goff is 2nd to only Brady in wins.

But yeah, keep bitching about this trade.

No, I do not expect Goff to win many games in 2021 due to the lack of talent on the team, but 2022, I bet the Lions are in the mix to win the division. Rogers will be declining, possibly not even starting, as Packers decline...Bears and Vikes might be good, but it is likely Lions will be a far better team. Goff will be in his 2nd season and more experienced in his new offense.

As crazy as it might sound, your probably not far off. Rodgers is pushing 40 so he doesn't have much time left, and Jordan Love doesn't scare me. Kirk Cousins probably won't be in Minnesota much longer and even if he is he doesn't worry me. Chicago is in desperate need for a QB. This division could be on the downswing for a few season so there could be an opening for us to rebound as quickly as 2022.
 
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As crazy as it might sound, your probably not far off. Rodgers is pushing 40 so he doesn't have much time left, and Jordan Love doesn't scare me. Kirk Cousins probably won't be in Minnesota much longer and even if he is he doesn't worry me. Chicago is in desperate need for a QB. This division could be on the downswing for a few season so there could be an opening for us to rebound as quickly as 2022.

that may be true but my guess is it will likely still be AR's division. He is 37 and will be the MVP of the league. Unless he gets injured, traded, or retires, he will be the class of the division. The Lions have almost no talent on the team and it certainly isn't a free agent destination. My guess is the earliest they even sniff a WC spot is 2023
 
that may be true but my guess is it will likely still be AR's division. He is 37 and will be the MVP of the league. Unless he gets injured, traded, or retires, he will be the class of the division. The Lions have almost no talent on the team and it certainly isn't a free agent destination. My guess is the earliest they even sniff a WC spot is 2023

Getting swept by Pack and losing 4 other games puts them at 10-6 with potential to be in playoffs, especially with the new 14 team format.

Next year likely 6 wins will be their max, but 2022 - if new staff is as capable as they appear - then a 9 or 11 win season has possibilities. Quality staff can completely flip a team in 2 years through correctly identifying current pieces that are good enough, 2 FA and 2 Draft seasons.
 
Getting swept by Pack and losing 4 other games puts them at 10-6 with potential to be in playoffs, especially with the new 14 team format.

Next year likely 6 wins will be their max, but 2022 - if new staff is as capable as they appear - then a 9 or 11 win season has possibilities. Quality staff can completely flip a team in 2 years through correctly identifying current pieces that are good enough, 2 FA and 2 Draft seasons.

Did LKP hack your account?

Here is what I think is a likely scenario.

They will suck next year. Even if they hit it out of the park with the draft and sign a few good FA, I see a 1-5 win team. Goff will struggle. His stats will look about as bad as one of Matt's worst years. Probably a rating between 80-85. People will be pissed at the trade and fans will be turning on Goff.

2022. With any luck, they hit it out of the park with the draft again. However, it's Detroit and they will be coming off another season where they are doormats, probably a 4-12 season. No respectable free agents will come. If they hit on all of their draft picks, they might flirt with a .500 record. Goff will be better but still below his career numbers. Now what do the Lions do?

2023. They keep Goff. He isn't enough to carry a team, but is average. IF the team really hits on the draft...like outstanding, the team will flirt with 9 wins...maybe the playoffs.

2024. IF they made the playoffs in 2023, free agents might consider the Lions. Goff probably still on the team but hopefully they drafted a replacement. If they really did well in the prior 3 drafts, they might be contenders for the division.
 
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Did LKP hack your account?

Here is what I think is a likely scenario.

They will suck next year. Even if they hit it out of the park with the draft and sign a few good FA, I see a 1-5 win team. Goff will struggle. His stats will look about as bad as one of Matt's worst years. Probably a rating between 80-85. People will be pissed at the trade and fans will be turning on Goff.

2022. With any luck, they hit it out of the park with the draft again. However, it's Detroit and they will be coming off another season where they are doormats, probably a 4-12 season. No respectable free agents will come. If they hit on all of their draft picks, they might flirt with a .500 record. Goff will be better but still below his career numbers. Now what do the Lions do?

2023. They keep Goff. He isn't enough to carry a team, but is average. IF the team really hits on the draft...like outstanding, the team will flirt with 9 wins...maybe the playoffs.

2024. IF they made the playoffs in 2023, free agents might consider the Lions. Goff probably still on the team but hopefully they drafted a replacement. If they really did well in the prior 3 drafts, they might be contenders for the division.

The Lions will know for sure my the end of 2021 if Goff is in their long term plans. If he is not they will find a young guy and let Goff go following the 2022 season at the latest. That puts the theoretical young guy in year 2 with a solid team built around him in 2023 with a good chance to compete. Obviously that depends on building the team correctly the next couple years.

One thing to note, Goff has proven average is his downside under McVay. Even last year he was a middle of the pack QB maybe teetering towards the lower middle end. In his best years hes been a top 5-8 guy. That's his upside. The question is how much of it was McVay's system. That goes both ways though, McVay wanted Goff to fit what he wanted to do and not tailor his offense to fit Goff. From what I've read there has been a lot of tension between the two and that makes for an awkward situation for the QB, when he knows his head coach doesn't believe in him. If Campbell plays to his strengths, who knows maybe he gets back to that level. He was a overall #1 pick for a reason.
 
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Coaches wanted to come here for Campbell. I could see players wanting to come here too.
Maybe raid the Rams and Saints (when they cut everybody due to being 100 mil over the cap) is a strategy too. It's bound to happen

You guys have no idea how good they will be in 2022/2023. 2021 lots of holes and need to start building and gel. Downgrade at QB. 2021 is going to suck. There is no fix for 2021, no matter what crazy ideas you guys type in your "offseason plans". Having pick 8 and more cap space too wouldn't have saved 2021 either.
 
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