Stafford gone to rams

[johnny2x2x]

the future first round picks are less valuable for exactly this reason. 95% of teams are in win now mode on draft day. GMs value a pick on draft day more than they do for the same round pick in future years.

I do agree with the opinion that future first round picks are valuable to the Lions. I just think that the Lions could have flipped #8 for more value than Goff (which has negative value because of his contract) and the picks that they actually got.

If Goff were on a long term deal you'd have a good point. In 2 years, unless Goff reverts to his previous top 10 in the NFL form, you cut him for zero cap hit. Expiring contracts are viewed as a positive, people actually trade for guys on 1 year expiring contracts that represent a massive cap hit for this season. Goff's is just on a 2 year one, which if you're committed to a rebuild isn't that much of a negative.

I don't think for a second Holmes did this deal without taking into account what he sees in this year's draft class. If he thought there was a QB that is can't miss and he'd have to move up a few spots to get him, he may have taken the Washington deal or Carolina deal, then again if that can't miss QB is there we can offer the 7th and 2 future first to move up to get him at 2 or 3. I'm not sold on Fields as a good NFL QB at all. Wilson (BYU kid) is a head case. Maybe the Lions already have a QB they really like in this class, but know he'll be there late first, so maybe their intention is to trade out of 7 anyway.

Personally, I love having 2 first round picks in 2022 and 2023 for where we are as a franchise. Getting young studs on their rookie deals blended with some FAs in 2023 or later and you're set up for success. Rookie deals are 4 years, the guys you draft this year will be guys you have to resign in 2025. Staggering the talent out over draft classes helps your cap long term.

This new management appears ready to commit to a long term rebuild, the deal they made makes great sense with that in mind.

 

[mhughes0021]

If Goff were on a long term deal you'd have a good point. In 2 years, unless Goff reverts to his previous top 10 in the NFL form, you cut him for zero cap hit. Expiring contracts are viewed as a positive, people actually trade for guys on 1 year expiring contracts that represent a massive cap hit for this season. Goff's is just on a 2 year one, which if you're committed to a rebuild isn't that much of a negative.

I don't think for a second Holmes did this deal without taking into account what he sees in this year's draft class. If he thought there was a QB that is can't miss and he'd have to move up a few spots to get him, he may have taken the Washington deal or Carolina deal, then again if that can't miss QB is there we can offer the 7th and 2 future first to move up to get him at 2 or 3. I'm not sold on Fields as a good NFL QB at all. Wilson (BYU kid) is a head case. Maybe the Lions already have a QB they really like in this class, but know he'll be there late first, so maybe their intention is to trade out of 7 anyway.

Personally, I love having 2 first round picks in 2022 and 2023 for where we are as a franchise. Getting young studs on their rookie deals blended with some FAs in 2023 or later and you're set up for success. Rookie deals are 4 years, the guys you draft this year will be guys you have to resign in 2025. Staggering the talent out over draft classes helps your cap long term.

This new management appears ready to commit to a long term rebuild, the deal they made makes great sense with that in mind.

The next year rams pick is projected to be pick 28. Id have no issues trading that in this years draft at the top of rd 2 if some rd 1 talent falls. Especially if its a WR, LB or S.

At some point you have to care whats pn the field this year. Right now were staring at the 2nd worst team in football WITH stafford. The worst team in footbal without staffor dand youre about to lose marvin, golladay, okwara and griffen on top of that lmao. That screams 0-16.

 

[mhughes0021]

It's a rebuild, Golladay is off the table

Pick Devonta Smith and defense day 2 with Holmes who can actually make good picks on day 2 and day 3.

Smith, Hock, Swift for Goff. Above average Oline with no personnel changes just scheme changes

Can get 28 million in cap space cutting people we want to cut or pay cuts.

Also depends if cap is 175 million (10.9 over prior to cuts), 180 million (5.9 over) or 198 (12.1 million under) plus 28 million from cuts. So could be at 40 million under. That is room for Golladay if you wish. 180 or 198 is what I have seen more expected

They can add other cheaper WR free agents too. Doesn't HAVE to be Golladay or Godwin or Allen Robinson


We will not be good in 2021. Could tag and trade Golladay still actually too. 17 mil only temporary on the books. Trade him for a 2nd round pick

i actually value your opinion on cap. So please tell me how you expect them to cut players to get cap space when all i see with players that have decent salaries is high dead cap amounts? Give specifics.

As of right now were staring at -$11mil and a depth chart that looks like:

Cephus Allison Goff Swift Hock...wow bad.

Flowers Shelton Williams
Bryant Collins Tavaii Jones
Okudah Harris Walker Amani

so we had the worst defense in the NFL last year and for 2021 were doubling down and trying to match that with the worst offense. Good plan.

 

[LKP]

i actually value your opinion on cap. So please tell me how you expect them to cut players to get cap space when all i see with players that have decent salaries is high dead cap amounts? Give specifics.

As of right now were staring at -$11mil and a depth chart that looks like:

Cephus Allison Goff Swift Hock...wow bad.

Flowers Shelton Williams
Bryant Collins Tavaii Jones
Okudah Harris Walker Amani

so we had the worst defense in the NFL last year and for 2021 were doubling down and trying to match that with the worst offense. Good plan.

11 mil over at 175
Bu will probably be 180 or 198. So like I said 5 over and 12.1 under to start more likely

Trufant is 6.1 million in savings (12.1 cap hit less 6 dead)
Justin Coleman 5 million (11 cap hit less 6 dead)
Nick Williams 4.7 million (5.7 minus 1 dead)
Shelton 4 million (5.2 million less 1.25 dead)
Christian Jones 2.6 million (4.7-2.1 dead)
Joe Dahl (3.125-.25) Almost 3 million savings
Chase Daniel (5.3-3) 2.3 savings
Jessie James (6.4-4.2) 2.6

That is 30.3 million in cap savings

Shelton only one worth keeping maybe, you could have him take a pay cut. Same with any of them. Offer a pay cut first then if they don't take it, cut them fully

Trufant or Coleman could be tradeable for late round pick possibly to right team

 

[tomdalton22]

If Goff were on a long term deal you'd have a good point. In 2 years, unless Goff reverts to his previous top 10 in the NFL form, you cut him for zero cap hit. Expiring contracts are viewed as a positive, people actually trade for guys on 1 year expiring contracts that represent a massive cap hit for this season. Goff's is just on a 2 year one, which if you're committed to a rebuild isn't that much of a negative.

I don't think for a second Holmes did this deal without taking into account what he sees in this year's draft class. If he thought there was a QB that is can't miss and he'd have to move up a few spots to get him, he may have taken the Washington deal or Carolina deal, then again if that can't miss QB is there we can offer the 7th and 2 future first to move up to get him at 2 or 3. I'm not sold on Fields as a good NFL QB at all. Wilson (BYU kid) is a head case. Maybe the Lions already have a QB they really like in this class, but know he'll be there late first, so maybe their intention is to trade out of 7 anyway.

Personally, I love having 2 first round picks in 2022 and 2023 for where we are as a franchise. Getting young studs on their rookie deals blended with some FAs in 2023 or later and you're set up for success. Rookie deals are 4 years, the guys you draft this year will be guys you have to resign in 2025. Staggering the talent out over draft classes helps your cap long term.

This new management appears ready to commit to a long term rebuild, the deal they made makes great sense with that in mind.

I agree with a lot of this but you are forgetting one thing. Teams still value money. The Lions are not going to contend at all over the next 2 seasons, and they will spend over $53M on Goff. They don't have to spend that money on free agents and don't have to use up all of their cap space...but it would still be money that they have for future use. Front load some free agent contracts in the future, use it to lock up players that they like with front loaded contracts if they want. That money gives them flexibility.

I'm all for future picks when "re-building". I just think they could have leveraged the #8 pick into very similar first round picks in 2022 & 2023...probably pretty easily.

In the end, I still like the deal. It might end up great. But the idea of having #7 and #8 in this years draft (and what they could turn those picks into) is really fun.

 

[LKP]

Don't start adding free agents until you start the building already. Need to build through draft. 2022 and 2023 time to add the big free agents. Plus backload their deals some too

 

[mhughes0021]

you guys keep speaking out of both sides. You keep saying rebuild thru the draft...which i agree with 10000000%. But then you are fine with a trade that put a vet QB in place at $25 mil a year back on your team? Thats not rebuilding thru the draft! Give me one scenerio where thats worked? We just watch them try it with Stafford 3 TIMES in 12 years. It doesnt work. The teams that go get Russel Wilson on a rookie deal so they can reshape their defense....that works! Goff an -$11mil with no current draft capital is not going to work...its not.

Watch this i can fucking tell the future:

Year 1 we win 2 games. Goff fails miserably. LKP blames the lack of support.

Year 2 we pick first in the draft and pick a rookie QB 1 overall. That #1 is probably worse than Lance, fields and wilson. Goff starts. Oh yippie...we have pick 28 STILL! nice we can fill one of the 15 holes we still have on this team. We're still the worst team in the league. The extra 1st did nothing to help the end result.

Year 3 Time to make a decision on Goff. We have 4 different threads debating if Goff sucks or not because during our "rebuild" we couldnt afford to ever get him any help. With 3 years left on his deal we decide to go with the year 2 guy thats never played a snap in the NFL....good thing he sat behind the mastermid Goff for a year. Im sure that gave him some valuable insight. Ohhhh....yippie...we have that extra first again. Time to finally cash in and use that pick to replace Okwara that we lost 3 years ago cause we couldnt afford him. Now were back up to only 10 holes on the team! Maybe year 4 will be better....

POOF....after 6-42 during his first 3 years DC and Holmes are fired. Time for a rebuild.

 

[johnny2x2x]

I agree with a lot of this but you are forgetting one thing. Teams still value money. The Lions are not going to contend at all over the next 2 seasons, and they will spend over $53M on Goff. They don't have to spend that money on free agents and don't have to use up all of their cap space...but it would still be money that they have for future use. Front load some free agent contracts in the future, use it to lock up players that they like with front loaded contracts if they want. That money gives them flexibility.

I'm all for future picks when "re-building". I just think they could have leveraged the #8 pick into very similar first round picks in 2022 & 2023...probably pretty easily.

In the end, I still like the deal. It might end up great. But the idea of having #7 and #8 in this years draft (and what they could turn those picks into) is really fun.

NFL teams are required to spend 90% of their cap money anyways, it's not like they can spend $30 Million a year, they're required to spend almost all of it.

 

[LKP]

you guys keep speaking out of both sides. You keep saying rebuild thru the draft...which i agree with 10000000%. But then you are fine with a trade that put a vet QB in place at $25 mil a year back on your team? Thats not rebuilding thru the draft! Give me one scenerio where thats worked? We just watch them try it with Stafford 3 TIMES in 12 years. It doesnt work. The teams that go get Russel Wilson on a rookie deal so they can reshape their defense....that works! Goff an -$11mil with no current draft capital is not going to work...its not.

Watch this i can fucking tell the future:

Year 1 we win 2 games. Goff fails miserably. LKP blames the lack of support.

Year 2 we pick first in the draft and pick a rookie QB 1 overall. That #1 is probably worse than Lance, fields and wilson. Goff starts. Oh yippie...we have pick 28 STILL! nice we can fill one of the 15 holes we still have on this team. We're still the worst team in the league. The extra 1st did nothing to help the end result.

Year 3 Time to make a decision on Goff. We have 4 different threads debating if Goff sucks or not because during our "rebuild" we couldnt afford to ever get him any help. With 3 years left on his deal we decide to go with the year 2 guy thats never played a snap in the NFL....good thing he sat behind the mastermid Goff for a year. Im sure that gave him some valuable insight. Ohhhh....yippie...we have that extra first again. Time to finally cash in and use that pick to replace Okwara that we lost 3 years ago cause we couldnt afford him. Now were back up to only 10 holes on the team! Maybe year 4 will be better....

POOF....after 6-42 during his first 3 years DC and Holmes are fired. Time for a rebuild.

We build through draft no matter who the QB is right now. We can take a QB at anytime now

We are going to suck in 2021. And it won't just be Goff sucking

Building through the draft, just means actually hit on more than 1-2 or draft picks. Like day 2 and 3. Let's see how if Holmes can get 5 starters for future in 2021 draft with pick 7, early Round 2, two 3rd and 4th. That is the rebuild and costs the same no matter who is at QB.

Not proven that next years class is worse or better than Wilson or Lance or Fields. Also need to develop the picks too. Picking alone isn't enough. On paper vs executing is very different

 

[mhughes0021]

11 mil over at 175
Bu will probably be 180 or 198. So like I said 5 over and 12.1 under to start more likely

Trufant is 6.1 million in savings (12.1 cap hit less 6 dead)
Justin Coleman 5 million (11 cap hit less 6 dead)
Nick Williams 4.7 million (5.7 minus 1 dead)
Shelton 4 million (5.2 million less 1.25 dead)
Christian Jones 2.6 million (4.7-2.1 dead)
Joe Dahl (3.125-.25) Almost 3 million savings
Chase Daniel (5.3-3) 2.3 savings
Jessie James (6.4-4.2) 2.6

That is 30.3 million in cap savings

Shelton only one worth keeping maybe, you could have him take a pay cut. Same with any of them. Offer a pay cut first then if they don't take it, cut them fully

Trufant or Coleman could be tradeable for late round pick possibly to right team

Ok....got it. So let me redo my depth chart and take out the guys youre releasing just so we can get a miniscule amount of cap space and add a ton of dead cap:

Flowers Penisini Strong
Bryant Collins Tavaii Baby Okwara
Okudah Harris Walker Amani

= Worst defense in the history of the NFL with no draft capital.

I take Carolinas deal and have a rookie qb with cap space i could realistically had:

Flowers Shelton Griffen
R Okwara Collins Parsons FA Edge (reddick)
Okudah RD2 S Walker Amani

=bad defense with a bunch of expiring contracts upcomming blended with future talent.

 

[LKP]

Ok....got it. So let me redo my depth chart and take out the guys youre releasing just so we can get a miniscule amount of cap space and add a ton of dead cap:

Flowers Penisini Strong
Bryant Collins Tavaii Baby Okwara
Okudah Harris Walker Amani

= Worst defense in the history of the NFL with no draft capital.

I take Carolinas deal and have a rookie qb with cap space i could realistically had:

Flowers Shelton Griffen
R Okwara Collins Parsons FA Edge (reddick)
Okudah RD2 S Walker Amani

=bad defense with a bunch of expiring contracts upcomming blended with future talent.

LOL. OMG we lost Shelton in that scenario. Like I said could keep Shelton too so 26 million cleared not 30 million. Also you are missing Hand not Strong. Hand is good player

New scheme. Don't know if it will be better but nowhere to go but up

Also will have ability to sign free agent and draft and even trade (think Harrison trade, Harmon trade etc). Roster isn't set in early March

Alot depends on what cap is. If it is 198, then we are 12 under. 12 under plus 30 million is 42 in space. That is a great amount of cap space even with Goffs hefty deal

And you never know, could restructure Goff with restructure bonus if they want room in 2021. I would recommend against that but could be done. Makes him harder to cut in 2022 though but still very cutable in 2023 only with some dead money then depending on restructure size.

Lions have options

 

[mhughes0021]

LOL. OMG we lost Shelton in that scenario. Like I said could keep Shelton too so 26 million cleared not 30 million. Also you are missing Hand not Strong. Hand is good player

New scheme. Don't know if it will be better but nowhere to go but up

Also will have ability to sign free agent and draft and even trade (think Harrison trade, Harmon trade etc). Roster isn't set in early March

Alot depends on what cap is. If it is 198, then we are 12 under. 12 under plus 30 million is 42 in space. That is a great amount of cap space even with Goffs hefty deal

And you never know, could restructure Goff with restructure bonus if they want room in 2021. I would recommend against that but could be done. Makes him harder to cut in 2022 though but still very cutable in 2023 only with some dead money then depending on restructure size.

Lions have options

fuck me...i have to start the 2022 draft thread now. Fuck you Holmes.

 

[LKP]

fuck me...i have to start the 2022 draft thread now. Fuck you Holmes.

LOL we still have plenty of good picks in 2021 to start the rebuild. Calm your tits

You are forgetting Holmes should actually be good on day 2 and 3

 

[mhughes0021]

Oh looky there...walter mock has the lions picking first overall and selecting Sam Howell. Time for a rebuild of the rebuild!

Detroit Lions: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
2021 NFL Mock Draft Pick (as of 5/12): Christian Barmore, DT

This might be it for Matthew Stafford. If the Lions secure the No. 1 overall pick - remember, this order is random - they may trade or cut Stafford and move on with a new franchise quarterback.

Sam Howell threw for 38 touchdowns in 2019, which was a Division I-A record for a freshman. He doesn't have ideal size (6-1, 225), but there's no doubting his throwing ability.

 

[LKP]

Oh looky there...walter mock has the lions picking first overall and selecting Sam Howell. Time for a rebuild of the rebuild!

Detroit Lions: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
2021 NFL Mock Draft Pick (as of 5/12): Christian Barmore, DT

This might be it for Matthew Stafford. If the Lions secure the No. 1 overall pick - remember, this order is random - they may trade or cut Stafford and move on with a new franchise quarterback.

Sam Howell threw for 38 touchdowns in 2019, which was a Division I-A record for a freshman. He doesn't have ideal size (6-1, 225), but there's no doubting his throwing ability.

Walter doesn't make the picks. We could go QB in 2021, 2022 or 2023 now

I'll be happy to get a non QB stud in 2021 at pick 7 though, or a trade down too. So many options. We aren't stuck at picking QB in 2021

 

[johnny2x2x]

you guys keep speaking out of both sides. You keep saying rebuild thru the draft...which i agree with 10000000%. But then you are fine with a trade that put a vet QB in place at $25 mil a year back on your team? Thats not rebuilding thru the draft! Give me one scenerio where thats worked? We just watch them try it with Stafford 3 TIMES in 12 years. It doesnt work. The teams that go get Russel Wilson on a rookie deal so they can reshape their defense....that works! Goff an -$11mil with no current draft capital is not going to work...its not.

Watch this i can fucking tell the future:

Year 1 we win 2 games. Goff fails miserably. LKP blames the lack of support.

Year 2 we pick first in the draft and pick a rookie QB 1 overall. That #1 is probably worse than Lance, fields and wilson. Goff starts. Oh yippie...we have pick 28 STILL! nice we can fill one of the 15 holes we still have on this team. We're still the worst team in the league. The extra 1st did nothing to help the end result.

Year 3 Time to make a decision on Goff. We have 4 different threads debating if Goff sucks or not because during our "rebuild" we couldnt afford to ever get him any help. With 3 years left on his deal we decide to go with the year 2 guy thats never played a snap in the NFL....good thing he sat behind the mastermid Goff for a year. Im sure that gave him some valuable insight. Ohhhh....yippie...we have that extra first again. Time to finally cash in and use that pick to replace Okwara that we lost 3 years ago cause we couldnt afford him. Now were back up to only 10 holes on the team! Maybe year 4 will be better....

POOF....after 6-42 during his first 3 years DC and Holmes are fired. Time for a rebuild.

I'll give you 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1, Goff sucks, you cut him after year 2, but you've drafted your QB somewhere along the way, you have both Goff's and Trey Flowers deals coming off the books and you get to shop FA in 2023. The Lions will have more money to spend on FAs after the 2022 season than just about anyone.

Scenario 2, Goff reverts back to his top 10 form, you rework his deal after season 2, and you have your franchise QB locked in for the long term and have surrounded him with talent mostly on rookie deals, you still have cap money to spend to add a few premium FAs by 2023 when you're trying to compete for a playoff spot.

Keep in mind, the chances of the QB you select in the next 2 drafts being as good as Goff was when he was tearing up the league are very remote, if he reverts back to that you have a QB whose peak years were better than anything Matthew Stafford had.

And I encourage people to watch peak Goff, when he was on he was dropping dimes. Oh, and prime Todd Gurley those years was an absolute freak, best weapon in the NFL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhhVg7nM5rg

 

[detroit1811]

Ok....got it. So let me redo my depth chart and take out the guys youre releasing just so we can get a miniscule amount of cap space and add a ton of dead cap:

Flowers Penisini Strong
Bryant Collins Tavaii Baby Okwara
Okudah Harris Walker Amani

= Worst defense in the history of the NFL with no draft capital.

I take Carolinas deal and have a rookie qb with cap space i could realistically had:

Flowers Shelton Griffen
R Okwara Collins Parsons FA Edge (reddick)
Okudah RD2 S Walker Amani

=bad defense with a bunch of expiring contracts upcomming blended with future talent.

What the hell is the difference in getting rid of those guys now so we take on the dead cap hits while we suck, verse keeping some of them not getting Goff and trying to win what 6-8 games this year. Seriously would that make you feel better? I dont care if we field the worst team in the history of the NFL this year. We are gonna suck, I'd rather get all this bullshit over with now. Hell I would look into trading Flowers and Collins. Would a team like Miami, who needs pass rushers and an ILB be interested in them. Brian Flores would obviously be very familiar with them. If we could get rid of them for draft capital I would in a heartbeat. Are both of those guys packaged together worth a 2nd to them? 3rd?

Like Campbell said the focus is on building this year the right way and every move they make is gonna be focused on two years down the line and later. To me that means we move on from the players we don't envision being here in two years. Collins and Flowers falls into that IMO, and should have some value to other teams. Get their high cap hits completely off the books for next year by getting rid of them now.

 

[Mitchrapp]

That 8 pick from Carolina I would have like that.

 

[LKP]

Shelton, Trufant and Williams are free agents in 2022 anyway. Just cut their ass now cap space. Dead money better than having their full cap hit. Cap 101 for the future

Also you can roll over cap space

19 million or 24 million to 42 million is possible range starting point after the cuts.

At 19 or 24 could still add a free agent or 2 to help for 2021. But really should wait for 2022 and 2023 for free agent adds. Draft picks added no matter the cap space

 

[detroit1811]

I'll give you 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1, Goff sucks, you cut him after year 2, but you've drafted your QB somewhere along the way, you have both Goff's and Trey Flowers deals coming off the books and you get to shop FA in 2023. The Lions will have more money to spend on FAs after the 2022 season than just about anyone.

Scenario 2, Goff reverts back to his top 10 form, you rework his deal after season 2, and you have your franchise QB locked in for the long term and have surrounded him with talent mostly on rookie deals, you still have cap money to spend to add a few premium FAs by 2023 when you're trying to compete for a playoff spot.

Keep in mind, the chances of the QB you select in the next 2 drafts being as good as Goff was when he was tearing up the league are very remote, if he reverts back to that you have a QB whose peak years were better than anything Matthew Stafford had.

And I encourage people to watch peak Goff, when he was on he was dropping dimes. Oh, and prime Todd Gurley those years was an absolute freak, best weapon in the NFL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhhVg7nM5rg

I remember watching him play against the Vikings a couple years back and he was incredible in that game. I don't know if he missed a single throw that day.

One thing I haven't seen people mentioning is what if he actually does turn it around like you mentioned above. Well guess what then we have a good quarterback on a team friendly deal, His cap hits for the duration of his contract are around 25mil a year, and in 2023 and 2024 we could cut him without any repercussion if something went bad. By 2023 I bet you that is probably not even top 15 QB money, maybe not even top 20. I know its a slim chance he turns himself back into a top 10 QB, but motivation can really turn things around for some people. You know he wants to prove McVay wrong. If that happens though we could be set up extremely well with lots of cap room, and draft picks.