Castellanos expectations for 14`

[tomdalton22]

Don't forget....a LOT of posters here felt like Leyland lost the Tigers a bunch of games every year. Get those games back and they should still win 90-95 games!!!!

 

[Rebbiv]

but if Im DD and I look at the last 2 postseasons.....my bullpen has lost me a chance at the world series.

DET vs SFG. Detroit loses in 4 games.
Runs scored after the 6th inning: DET 2 SFG 5 in 13 innings.

So in 13 Innings, DET's offense scores 2 runs (1.38 R/G) versus 5 (3.46 R/G). In 2 of those games, the teams were TIED after 6 innings. The 2 runs DET got was in the game they were down 8-1 going to the ninth and lost 8-3. Meaning the last 3 games of the series, DET scored 0 Runs versus 3 Runs for SFG, in 10 innings.

DET vs BOS. Detroit loses in 6 games.
Runs scored after the 6th inning: DET 1 BOS 12 in 18 innings

Simple math. DET scored 3 runs after the 6th inning in the last 10 post games, totaling 31 innings. 3 runs in 31 inning!

I get the game 2 grand slam demise. But aside from that, you can pin the last 2 post seasons on the bull pen all you want, but I am not buying it.

 

[Thumb]

Ok lets analyze this "huge step backwards"....and feel free to debate where I went wrong.

Everyone on here is expecting nick to hit .270 with about 20 homers. Prince fielder made a cazillion more dollars than nick and hit 25 homers.

In order to unload that contract we'll be paying too much for kinsler who hits for about the same average as infante but has a little more pop.

I'm not seeing where this huge step bacward from the offense is comming from.

We knew the day that prince signed it...he'd never be worth his contract. Its a miracle we dumped it.

Hold on a sec. Who is everyone? the 3 people that made predictions?

Seriously, the numbers people are projecting for him even exceed his AAA numbers, so yeah...that's real likely that a rookie facing top tier pitching is going to be that good.

I think one of the biggest mistakes DD made was hanging all our hopes on Nick C working out at 3B with only Don Kelly as his backup....

 

[mhughes0021]

I think the majority here feel that there is a big dropoff from Prince to Nick which is probably a reasonable assumption unless Nick does hit 20HR and .800 OPS. Both are very unlikely. I don't see the dropoff in offense from Infante to Kinsler. There will be a big drop off from Peralta to Iggy. Production from the LF position should be pretty much the same as last year.

Completely fair. But everyone on here also complained about our defense so you can't blame dd for going and getting iggy instead of paying an inflated contract for an older player comming off inflated steroid numbers....can't have it both ways. So were slighty less better at offense, but imo have better protection for miggy, while being better defensively in the if.

 

[Thumb]

Nobody is complaining about Iggy alone.

It would have been okay to lose that offense from Jhonny to Iggy if we hadn't shed so much other offense, and starting pitching, and bullpen....see our point?

 

[mhughes0021]

DET vs SFG. Detroit loses in 4 games.
Runs scored after the 6th inning: DET 2 SFG 5 in 13 innings.

So in 13 Innings, DET's offense scores 2 runs (1.38 R/G) versus 5 (3.46 R/G). In 2 of those games, the teams were TIED after 6 innings. The 2 runs DET got was in the game they were down 8-1 going to the ninth and lost 8-3. Meaning the last 3 games of the series, DET scored 0 Runs versus 3 Runs for SFG, in 10 innings.

DET vs BOS. Detroit loses in 6 games.
Runs scored after the 6th inning: DET 1 BOS 12 in 18 innings

Simple math. DET scored 3 runs after the 6th inning in the last 10 post games, totaling 31 innings. 3 runs in 31 inning!

I get the game 2 grand slam demise. But aside from that, you can pin the last 2 post seasons on the bull pen all you want, but I am not buying it.

I see it as the other team scored more runs than we did after the 6th. To me that's on the bp and shitty prince fielder. 2 things dd tried to fix....I gotta give him credit for that eventhough he gave up our #4 sp to do it.

 

[Thumb]

I see it as the other team scored more runs than we did after the 6th. To me that's on the bp and shitty prince fielder. 2 things dd tried to fix....I gotta give him credit for that eventhough he gave up our #4 sp to do it.

So Prince Fielder batted in all 9 spots after the 6th inning?

 

[Rebbiv]

Ok lets analyze this "huge step backwards"....and feel free to debate where I went wrong.

Everyone on here is expecting nick to hit .270 with about 20 homers. Prince fielder made a cazillion more dollars than nick and hit 25 homers.

In order to unload that contract we'll be paying too much for kinsler who hits for about the same average as infante but has a little more pop.

I'm not seeing where this huge step bacward from the offense is comming from.

We knew the day that prince signed it...he'd never be worth his contract. Its a miracle we dumped it.

2013 Fielder was a down year. His last 3 year away is .844 OPS. Castellanos will be lucky to hit .750 OPS as a rookie. Minus 3-4 wins right there.

Infante's last 3 years away was .732 OPS vesus Kinsler's .690 OPS. Defense is about a wash. Minus -1 win

And I didn't state it was just offense.

We lost Fister from the Starting rotation. The drop from Fister to Smyly will be 2 wins.

What addition made us better? Nathan? An elite close only is about 1-2 wins better than an average closer. For this argument, even though I don't believe it, we will say the pen is 1-2 wins better.

5-6 wins worse than last year on paper is significant. Can a player or two have a career year and make up some of that? You betcha. But it isn't likely.

I posted last spring and I have stated already just recently, DET has been pretty "lucky" with starter health the last few years. Verlander or Sanchez miss more than 1/4 of their starts would be huge. If Cabrera missed any significant time, this team will not even make it to .500. Cabrera is the offense right now.

 

[Rebbiv]

I see it as the other team scored more runs than we did after the 6th. To me that's on the bp and shitty prince fielder. 2 things dd tried to fix....I gotta give him credit for that eventhough he gave up our #4 sp to do it.

There is no debating irrational. If you don't see the problem of scoring 3 runs in 31 inning (over 3+ games), then there is nothing that can happen to this team except total collapse that will make you a believer.

 

[mhughes0021]

Fister is good. ..I loved having him....but he was our #4. I can live with moving a 4 to try to correct issues you have elsewhere. Ricky "ill implode in the 5th" porcello needs to step up...finally. smyly needs to be consistent. We weren't a home run hitting team....and we don't play in a home run hitting park.....I'm fine with moving on from fielder and trying to manufacture runs without 3 slow as molasses guys sitting in the middle of the order. Dd obvously got as sick as I did waiting on princess to come up wuth a big hit.

 

[mhughes0021]

2013 Fielder was a down year. His last 3 year away is .844 OPS. Castellanos will be lucky to hit .750 OPS as a rookie. Minus 3-4 wins right there.

Infante's last 3 years away was .732 OPS vesus Kinsler's .690 OPS. Defense is about a wash. Minus -1 win

And I didn't state it was just offense.

We lost Fister from the Starting rotation. The drop from Fister to Smyly will be 2 wins.

What addition made us better? Nathan? An elite close only is about 1-2 wins better than an average closer. For this argument, even though I don't believe it, we will say the pen is 1-2 wins better.

5-6 wins worse than last year on paper is significant. Can a player or two have a career year and make up some of that? You betcha. But it isn't likely.

I posted last spring and I have stated already just recently, DET has been pretty "lucky" with starter health the last few years. Verlander or Sanchez miss more than 1/4 of their starts would be huge. If Cabrera missed any significant time, this team will not even make it to .500. Cabrera is the offense right now.

Yes fielder was down...from 30 to 25. Really? U really think he was that important in our lineup?

 

[mhughes0021]

What u guys aren't realizing is how much you are contradicting yourselves. You keep showing me all this info on how terrible the offense was....but you didn't want dd to change it?? Its crazy talk. I hated watching 3 super slow guys in the middle of the order. How many times did we get a hit into the OF and not be able to score the guy on 2b....it was ridiculous.

 

[Rebbiv]

Fister may have been the Tigers #4, but he is a #2 pitcher. Porcello is a #3 or high #4 and he did step up big time in 2013 at the ripe old age of 24.

Fielder had a great year for DET in 2012 and a down year in 2013. But it is all about "what have you done for me lately".

Those 3 slow as molasses runners got on base (Fielder .376, Infante .319 Peralta .313). The new guys:

Iglesias .306 OBP

Kinsler .303 OBP

R. Davis .289 OBP

Lombardozzi .280 OBP

Let's see how that speed works out when it can get on base.

 

[grandy]

Another thing to note

Even if Smyly can somehow match Fisters performance, he most likely won't be able to match Fisters innings....which will put more stress on the bullpen over the course of the season.

 

[mhughes0021]

Fister may have been the Tigers #4, but he is a #2 pitcher. Porcello is a #3 or high #4 and he did step up big time in 2013 at the ripe old age of 24.

Fielder had a great year for DET in 2012 and a down year in 2013. But it is all about "what have you done for me lately".

Those 3 slow as molasses runners got on base (Fielder .376, Infante .319 Peralta .313). The new guys:

Iglesias .306 OBP

Kinsler .303 OBP

R. Davis .289 OBP

Lombardozzi .280 OBP

Let's see how that speed works out when it can get on base.

Ok now take the 3 slow players you listed and add miggy, fielder and victor.....we were stuck in the mud waiting for someone to hit a home run in a huge frikken park lol. If we weren't hitting homeruns we weren't scoring. As soon as miggy got hurt...we had no offense...you can't count on that if you're a gm. Fielder didn't step up...peralta got caught. ...bye bye...


Ps can't argue fister is a 2 production wise...completely agree. Having him be our 4 was a luxory. But...make it to the playoffs healthy...u only need 3.

 

[mhughes0021]

Another thing to note

Even if Smyly can somehow match Fisters performance, he most likely won't be able to match Fisters innings....which will put more stress on the bullpen over the course of the season.

He won't match fisters performance or innings. Sp definitely is in worse shape...

 

[tomdalton22]

Fister may have been the Tigers #4, but he is a #2 pitcher. Porcello is a #3 or high #4 and he did step up big time in 2013 at the ripe old age of 24.

Fielder had a great year for DET in 2012 and a down year in 2013. But it is all about "what have you done for me lately".

Those 3 slow as molasses runners got on base (Fielder .376, Infante .319 Peralta .313). The new guys:

Iglesias .306 OBP

Kinsler .303 OBP

R. Davis .289 OBP

Lombardozzi .280 OBP

Let's see how that speed works out when it can get on base.

The difference between Iggy and Peralta is getting on base about 4-5 times over the course of 650 PA which is insignificant.

Kinsler to Infante is 10 over 650 PA

the biggest difference is going to be between Prince and Nick. Prince would get on base about 30 more times over the course of a 650 PA IF Nick can get on base at a .330 clip. Still....that's only about once every 5 or 6 games.

All of these added up will cause the Tigers to score less but maybe some of that will be made up for with superior defense.

 

[Rebbiv]

The difference between Iggy and Peralta is getting on base about 4-5 times over the course of 650 PA which is insignificant.

Kinsler to Infante is 10 over 650 PA

the biggest difference is going to be between Prince and Nick. Prince would get on base about 30 more times over the course of a 650 PA IF Nick can get on base at a .330 clip. Still....that's only about once every 5 or 6 games.

All of these added up will cause the Tigers to score less but maybe some of that will be made up for with superior defense.

You have to go back to 2007 before Fielder had anything less than 690 PAs. So 650 is a tad low. Castellanos + whoever that makes up those 690+ PAs would fall short at least 30 times on base.

Fielder's actual OBP is .396. I was just isolating everyone to their away. So if Castellanos actual is .330 the difference is more like 45 times on base. 45 time is significant and Castellanos is not blazing speed.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Nobody is complaining about Iggy alone.

It would have been okay to lose that offense from Jhonny to Iggy if we hadn't shed so much other offense, and starting pitching, and bullpen....see our point?

Yep. Iggy was perfect because of the great offense. We have less now and I still like Iggy at short but the bottom of the order will be brutal.

 

[mhughes0021]

Yep. Iggy was perfect because of the great offense. We have less now and I still like Iggy at short but the bottom of the order will be brutal.

If I lived after watching the likes of inge everett santiago laird raburn hitting 7 8 9....I'm sure ill be fine with iggy avila castellanos/dirks.