Castellanos expectations for 14`

[Rebbiv]

If I lived after watching the likes of inge everett santiago laird raburn hitting 7 8 9....I'm sure ill be fine with iggy avila castellanos/dirks.

Get Avila and Castellanos out of the discussion, they have at least league average OBP. And Everett was only around for just 1 year and not even 400 Plate Appearances.

2011-2013 Away OBP

Iglesias .306 OBP
Kinsler .303 OBP
D. Kelly .293 OBP
R. Davis .289 OBP
Lombardozzi .280 OBP

2009-2011 Away OBP

Raburn .329 OBP
Santiago .323 OBP
Peralta .323 OBP
Inge .307 OBP
Laird .291 OBP

Aside from Iglesias, none of the new players are an upgrade defensively. They also don't have as much power. Their only attribute is speed. And that doesn't play unless you get on base.

HR = 1 run (or more if men were on base)

SB = ??

There is no accurate way to determine what speed does. But 1 SB does not mean 1 Run.

 

[Thundercats]

The difference between Iggy and Peralta is getting on base about 4-5 times over the course of 650 PA which is insignificant.

Kinsler to Infante is 10 over 650 PA

the biggest difference is going to be between Prince and Nick. Prince would get on base about 30 more times over the course of a 650 PA IF Nick can get on base at a .330 clip. Still....that's only about once every 5 or 6 games.

All of these added up will cause the Tigers to score less but maybe some of that will be made up for with superior defense.

He's also using only away stats. I guess we should only judge players on their numbers away, even though it's only 50% of the games.

 

[UMRules06]

He's also using only away stats. I guess we should only judge players on their numbers away, even though it's only 50% of the games.

A players home park can skew their numbers especially if it's extremely hitter or pitcher friendly. Looking at only away stats gives more of a "park neutral" look at the players stats, and so its a better indication of overall ability. At least from a statistical standpoint. We wouldn't expect players coming over from the Rockies to put up the same type of overall stats here in Detroit for example, because Coors Field inflates them somewhat.

Road stats are a large enough sample size to get an idea of the value for a player, and it basically eliminates park factors.

 

[swami45]

Aside from Iglesias, none of the new players are an upgrade defensively. They also don't have as much power. Their only attribute is speed. And that doesn't play unless you get on base.

I disagree, Kinsler is a better defender than Infante. As for Davis he is what he is but he is still a better defender than Tui as well.

 

[Thumb]

I disagree, Kinsler is a better defender than Infante. As for Davis he is what he is but he is still a better defender than Tui as well.

Tui did okay on defense for us.

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30822741

One of my favorite defense highlights of 2013.

 

[biggunsbob]

As Tiger fans we have to be worried..
DD got way less then he should have for Fister. Heck we did not even get a starting player back in the deal.. I like Nathan but then he is a closer..
Joaquin Benoit had a great year last year.. I would resign him also if the could...
The Bench appears the same with just a tad more speed..
I see no pop off the bench...
Davis is going to platoon with Dirks.. It may be a good.. Not sure why Vera's option was not picked up.
You can't count on Nick to replace Fielders numbers at all.. He won't even be close..
Can Kinsler hit in comerica?
200/.298/.329/.627 in 162 plate appearances Big worry here in my opinion...

Hopefully it will work but these moves are all just curious to me..
Also I heard on the radio the Tigers were getting over 25 Million more from
their tv contract and yet our roster payroll is close to the same or below
last year.. Have The Illich family pulled back the spending with their father not
really in the public eye much anymore?

 

[swami45]

Hopefully it will work but these moves are all just curious to me.. Also I heard on the radio the Tigers were getting over 25 Million more from their tv contract and yet our roster payroll is close to the same or below last year.. Have The Illich family pulled back the spending with their father not really in the public eye much anymore?

From what I have read only a few teams are using the TV contract money for Payroll. Most are applying to existing debts, stadium upgrades, and other organizational costs. It is hard to apply that to Payroll when you are not sure what your additional revenues will be for the next following years. The Tigers are projected to have a higher payroll this year though, around 8-10 million more than last. I do question if Mr I is not making all the big calls anymore since he has dissappeard from the public eye.

 

[biggunsbob]

From what I have read only a few teams are using the TV contract money for Payroll. Most are applying to existing debts, stadium upgrades, and other organizational costs. It is hard to apply that to Payroll when you are not sure what your additional revenues will be for the next following years. The Tigers are projected to have a higher payroll this year though, around 8-10 million more than last. I do question if Mr I is not making all the big calls anymore since he has dissappeard from the public eye.

Ok thanks... That makes a lot of sense... Hopefully it will all work... I still think DD will pull something off bigger no matter what he is saying and still if we sign Max long term we can't really bitch about JV,Max,AS as a top three.... That being said damn DD should have gotten more for Fister..

I am worried like Rebbiv and others... We need a team with better OBP for guys like Miggy and VM and I just don't see it...

 

[Mitchrapp]

What we need is Avila to hit for a higher average. He knows how to take a walk. .270 with 20 bombs would be huge.

 

[stonecold2136]

I hated benoit....we didn't use veras....and I'm not sure how much the loss of a long relief guy is when were among the league leaders in quality starts.

Benoit and Veras both were terrible in the payoffs

 

[turok]

I agreed with much of this...until we got to the part where you think were worse defensively. I think the IF defense is better since we wont have prince and miggy both on the corners. Iggy full time is an improvement over peralta. maybe we lost a tad defensively at 2b????...maybe....

.

I posted that the Tigers IF could potentially be worse defensively. Both Kinsler and Castellanos are new to the IF and Miggy returns to 1B, soo...I do not know if we can honestly post that the IF defense will be an improvement over last season until at least 40 GP into the '14 season.

 

[spockmaster]

did you mean that kinsler is new to our IF, or that he's new to the IF in general? because the most he's played at any other position than 2B is 2 innings at 3rd in 2012.

im going to assume the former? in which case im not entirely sure why he's a defensive question mark. he should be right about average. maybe a bit above, maybe a bit under.

 

[Rebbiv]

I disagree, Kinsler is a better defender than Infante. As for Davis he is what he is but he is still a better defender than Tui as well.

UZR/150 Last 3 years

Infante 6.1

Kinsler 5.5

 

[pr0tege]

UZR/150 Last 3 years

Infante 6.1

Kinsler 5.5

You yourself know some of those defensive stats are flawed

 

[Rebbiv]

You yourself know some of those defensive stats are flawed

Yes, especially for outfielders. But these aren't outfielders :tup:

 

[pr0tege]

Yes, especially for outfielders. But these aren't outfielders :tup:

We could use my least favorite stat DWAR where Kinsler rates a 1.6 and Infante rates in at -0.1 lol.

 

[Rebbiv]

We could use my least favorite stat DWAR where Kinsler rates a 1.6 and Infante rates in at -0.1 lol.

Let's just use

Fielding Percentage

Infante .982
Kinsler .978

Revised Zone Rating

Infante .831
Kinsler .826

Range Runs Above Average

Infante 17.0
Kinsler 15.0

Error Runs Above Average

Infante -1.6
Kinsler -7.0

And finally, just to be fair:

Double Plays Runs Above Average

Kinsler 6.6
Infante 2.8

So aside from possibly being better at double plays, where if Kinsler better?

 

[tigersofjustice]

If he can hit .270ish with maybe 10-15 hr maybe a .330 obp and not horrid defense I'll be satisfied. If he's an average'ish player that will be good enough.

 

[tigersofjustice]

I posted that the Tigers IF could potentially be worse defensively. Both Kinsler and Castellanos are new to the IF and Miggy returns to 1B, soo...I do not know if we can honestly post that the IF defense will be an improvement over last season until at least 40 GP into the '14 season.

No way it will be worse. Castellanos COULD feasibly be as bad as Cabrera at 3b. That said, Iglesias is definitely better than Peralta although JP was actually underrated with his SS defense. Even though JP was a slightly above average SS it is possible that Iglesias will be so much better as to drastically increase the SS defense. Infante to Kinsler is basically a wash. Infante is better but not by enough to make me concerned. Finally, Prince Fielder is absolutely horrible. In fact absolutely horrible might be a very generous way to describe Fielder's defense. Cabrera will be an upgrade at the position.

Unless Castellanos is not only worse than Cabrera at 3b but substantially worse, there is no way the infield defense has been downgraded.

 

[kalinecountry]

Castellanos as young as he is, and if he has the success in ST to be the starter at 3B, is probably going to have ups and downs through the year.

iirc, one thing he did in the minors when he was sent from Low A to High A and then up the minor league chain he struggled and then adjusted. So...Offensively good and bad streaks, but I would venture a guess he could fade some late August into September with the longer season.
Or maybe the use him 'almost' daily so he doesn't hit that wall so many do when the year goes from 140 games to 162.
I think he will barrel the bat on the ball some, but still chase low and away, still learning not to get set up for that pitch in any count with 2 strikes.

Another thing about his defense, after playing in LF for what was it....a year and a half? once Fielder was traded, he said he started taking 600 ground balls daily in case he was going to third and Miggy to 1B. So, he should make some good plays, he was never going to be compared to Brooks Robinson, but should have a bit more range than Miggy did.