tomdalton22
Senior Member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2011
- Messages
- 24,984
Here's a guy that agrees with Olney about the Upton signing.
"All-Star outfielder Justin Upton has a new contract in the form of a six-year, $132.75 million deal from the Detroit Tigers,and the deal itself is certainly interesting. Why is that? Well, though it has its perks, it?s still a bit of a head-scratcher.
First of all, the money involved in the deal regarding Upton himself is NOT an issue. Upton is 28 years old, in the prime of his career and is coming off a fairly decent 2015 campaign with the San Diego Padres. The young right-fielder hit .251 with 26 home runs, 81 RBI and 19 steals for the Friars last year, with the dip in batting average likely attributed to playing in cavernous Petco Park.
Upton?s batting average could very well take another hit now that he?s headed to another pitcher?s haven in Comerica Park, but this is where the ups of the contract really begin to take light. His deal with the Tigers includes an opt-out clause for the second year so that, in case things don?t work out in the Motor City for one reason or another, Upton can hit the open market once again at age 30 and still in a prime position to earn a lot of money. Throw in a limited no-trade clause, and it?s even more attractive.
Thus, for someone like Upton, who has a .271 lifetime batting average and .352 OBP with 190 career home runs and four All-Star selections, $22.1 million a year is actually a solid value. In fact, some may call it a steal.
But no contract is perfect, and in the case of the Detroit Tigers, this was not the deal that the team needed to be handing out. Upton?s contract pushes next year?s payroll, per Spotrac, up to about $176 million and while that is below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million, arbitration has yet to be factored in and Detroit has a number of questionable contracts on the books already.
Without going into too much detail, here?s the rundown. 37-year-old designated hitter Victor Martinez is owed $54 million over the next three years and batted a career-worst .245 with 11 home runs and 64 RBI in 2015, righty starter Anibal Sanchez is due $32 million in guaranteed money over the next two years and was uncharacteristically bad in 2015 with a 10-10 record and 4.99 ERA and Justin Verlander, though the staff ace, is making $112 million over the next four seasons and has started to show signs of breaking down over the past two, even though he did bounce back nicely in 2015 after missing the first two and a half months of the season with an injury.
Which brings the conversation to this. The Tigers let longtime GM Dave Dombrowski go last August as the team was in the midst of a major collapse and replaced him with longtime assistant Al Avila. Dombrowski?s tenure over his final seasons with the team was defined by hefty contracts given out to hitters and the occasional pitcher. To give a better idea, as of now, $95.2 million of Detroit?s projected payroll right now is factored into hitting. Once the team either reaches a deal or goes to arbitration with outfielder J.D. Martinez, who hit .282 with 38 home runs and 102 RBI last season, that number is going to go up.
Now look at Detroit?s projected starting rotation of Verlander, Sanchez, newcomer Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey and youngster Daniel Norris. Verlander and Sanchez?s respective issues have already been addressed, but what about those of Zimmermann and Pelfrey? Granted, Zimmermann is 29 and inked a five-year, $110 million deal when he easily could have landed a bigger deal, but he?s still a pitcher coming over from the National League?s Washington Nationals and no matter how one may slice it, the American League tends to be more offense-oriented and Zimmermann can at times be prone to giving up home runs, having allowed 24 last season.
In terms of Pelfrey, he signed a two-year, $16 million deal and went 11-27 with a 4.94 ERA in three years pitching for the Minnesota Twins at pitcher-friendly Target Field. Moving on.
Thus, what do the monies spent by the Tigers in recent years suggest? Simply that the team feels spending money equals a championship when that is not the case. Detroit had a payroll of $162.2 million last year and finished dead last in the AL Central Division with a record of 74-87, paying a grand total of just under $2.2 million per win.
And who won the World Series last year? None other than the Tigers? AL Central rival Kansas City Royals, who won 95 games with a payroll of $128.6 million and paid $1.35 million per win. More importantly, the team was built with a strong emphasis on pitching, with nearly half of the payroll tied up in just that. Amongst the hitters, not a single one had more than 25 home runs last year.
Which brings up the most important point about Upton?s contract. While it may be great for him, it?s not necessarily what the Tigers should have been put available money towards. Detroit ranked 28th in pitching with a team ERA of 4.64 last year and are in such a position that all money in free agency needs to be spent on upgrading the pitching staff, like Avila did in signing Zimmerman, and adding all other bats need to be given big money on an as-needed basis, especially with star first baseman Miguel Cabrera about to turn 33 this season and due $240 million in guaranteed money over the next eight years and the Royals just having won a World Series on pure pitching and small-ball as opposed to outscoring everybody by a massive margin.
More importantly, consider the opt-out clause that Upton has after the second year. Suppose he plays terribly over that stretch? With $132.6 million remaining on that deal, he?ll have little incentive to opt-out which means that the Tigers could have to sell low on him in a trade, a situation in which nobody wins. Sure, he?ll probably opt out, the the Tigers need to prepare for the possibility that he won?t whether he turns out to be a great signing or a bust.
Anyway, the long and short of it is this. With a pitching rotation whose major player is starting to break down, one unproven in the AL and the others pure question marks, the last thing the Tigers should have done is hand out a massive contract to a hitter.
The ups are that the contract are great for Upton, a young hitter just entering his prime, but the downs are that the Tigers just can?t seem to get the message that a powerful lineup alone doesn?t win a World Series.
