2022 Compensatory Picks

[detroit1811]

There has been quite a bit of debate on what to do with our free agents this year, and what we should do in free agency. One thing a few people have mentioned is letting Golladay walk and just getting a comp pick back in 2022. I am in the tagging him and keeping him for a year, or tagging and trading him for a pick group. For this though we will assume he is allowed to hit FA and sign with another team.

We will not have a ton of cap space this year, and we are highly unlikely to be players in free agency. With that said we have quite a few notable free agents that could land a pretty penny on the market. Obviously Golladay tops the list, and should bring back a 3rd round comp pick assuming we don?t make any splashes. Okwara is another guy who has the chance to make a splash. I?ve seen estimates ranging from 7-8mil a year top 12-13mil. If he can get towards the high end of that as a 25 year old pass rusher coming off a 10 sack campaign we could be looking at 2 3rd round comp picks in 2022. Beyond those two we still have a few guys that could actually make some decent money out there.


https://sidelionreport.com/2021/02/08/detroit-lions-predictions-five-important-free-agents/3/

Here is an article that has a couple projections on potential contracts with our free agents. They have Okwara at 12.5mil per, Marvin Jones at 10mil per, and Jarrad Davis at 7mil per. I think Davis seems high, but you never know he might have a better then expected market. Add in Duron Harmon who should get 5mil per as a solid starting safety and we could be looking at a haul in comp picks. Honestly even Jamal Agnew?s contract could surprise a few people. He has been a top notch returner almost every year of his career and he can have a role on offense. Cordarelle Patterson got a two year 10mil deal from Chicago and they both play similar roles.

I guarantee you Holmes has all this in mind and will be extremely selective in free agency, and might even wait until after the draft to make moves since after a certain point FA signings don?t count towards comp picks. Also could be looking at veteran cuts since cuts don?t count either. When its all said and done we could be looking at an extra four comp picks (which is the max), and maybe as high at 2 3rds and 2 4ths. Anyone else think this could be the way Holmes and company decides to go being 2021 is gonna be a full on rebuild and they don?t expect to compete this year.

 

[LKP]

That is a great strategy for sure. Holmes could have success on day 2/early day 3

2021 will be a nice tank year for sure too so high Lions picks at least. Even if Rams give us only pick 32

 

[LKP]

Wouldn't rule out tag and trade of Golladay. Try to get a 2nd rounder is possible. Or even a 2021 3rd and late rounder for him would be better than 2022 3rd comp pick

 

[detroit1811]

Everson Griffen is also a guy to watch. He played well for us and I’m sure a contender would love him as a 3rd pass rusher for 5-6mil a year. Obviously you can only get 4 picks, but the more players that sign contracts, the more players you can sign without it counting against you if the value is similar. For example, we already have four guys that would probably get us comp picks in 2022, and Griffen signs a 2 year 12mil deal. If we go sign a WR to a 3 year 18mil deal the contracts would offset and not count as a negative in the comp pick process.

 

[detroit1811]

Wouldn't rule out tag and trade of Golladay. Try to get a 2nd rounder is possible. Or even a 2021 3rd and late rounder for him would be better than 2022 3rd comp pick

Agreed. We don't need that 16mil for free agency, especially if Holmes has a plan similar to what I said above. Tag him and see what you can get. A team like the Giants, who already tried trading for him at the deadline, could be interested a 2nd in 2022 and a 4th this year is reasonable for a 27 year pro bowl WR. They need a big WR like Golladay.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

I agree on Golladay. Tag and trade if they believe the offer will be higher than a 4th.....which it should be. I would love to have KG, but with his likely price tag and us just starting the rebuild, it doesn't make much sense to pay him long term, as he will be 28-29 by the time we (should be) competing.

Davis at $7M. I can't imagine that. He's been so bad. I'd like to bring Okwara back. He should be on the cheaper side for a 10 sack DE and he'll only be 26. Jones is gone, which is fine. He wants to follow Stafford. Let him go. Same with Harmon...would be nice to have but let him walk and see what Harris can do.

We're likely going to slow play this off season and grab vets on cheap one year deals.....maybe a team option for a 2nd year. It just doesn't make any sense to throw a lot of money at anyone right now given the cap situation and the fact we're likely to be bad. I can see us going after a John Ross, Denzell Perryman, Tyrod Taylor......guys like that.

 

[detroit1811]

I don't know about you guys, but when I think of the possibilities for next couple years I am super excited. I'm going to go on a bit of a tangent, but just think of the possibilities.

Say we tag Golladay with the intention of trading him, but let the rest of the FA's walk (maybe re-sign Davis if Campbell really loves him). We flip Golladay for a 2nd and 2022 and a 4th this year like I mentioned above. We only sign a a WR early in FA to a modest deal(think Higgins/Keelan Cole), maybe 5-6mil a year. We wait until after after the period where you can sign FA's without it affecting the comp formula, to sign players. That's where you find player's coming off injury (think Malik Hooker) that usually sign for cheap. Maybe look at released veterans that fit the long term goal (Kwon Alexander?). Okwara brings back a 3rd comp pick in 2022, Marvin Jones a 4th, Harmon a 6th and Griffen a 7. Jamal Agnew offsets the WR signing.

Then at #7 maybe a team like Washington trades up to get the last of the top 4 QB's ahead of Carolina. They give up #19, a 1st next year, and a 3rd this year.

We obviously suck this year and finish 4-12 or worse with a top 3 pick in 2022. We have an abundance of cap space with flushing out most of the bas contracts and the dead money off the books

We go into the 2022 off-season with over 60mil in cap space and this in the draft

1st (top 3)
1st (Rams)
1st (Washington)
2nd (top 3)
2nd (giants)
3rd (top 3)
3rd (Comp
4th (top 3)
4th (comp)
5th (top 3)
6th (top 3)
6th (comp)
7th (top 3)
7th (comp).

That would be an awesome way to kick start a rebuild.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Wow. I might have a bit more confidence than last regime but wow. If we do tag Golladay he better play. He basically got a boo boo last season and couldn't get healthy.

 

[detroit1811]

Wow. I might have a bit more confidence than last regime but wow. If we do tag Golladay he better play. He basically got a boo boo last season and couldn't get healthy.

I heard something today on a podcast that there were some rumors he quit on the team. Obviously don't know if that's true, but he wanted to keep himself healthy before he entered FA and didn't wanna risk coming back for a losing team. I get the mindset honestly, but if true that's not something Campbell is gonna want and I'm sure he would be able to figure that out.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Wow. I might have a bit more confidence than last regime but wow. If we do tag Golladay he better play. He basically got a boo boo last season and couldn't get healthy.

Very small sample size.....but I like the rebuild strategy so far. FA will be interesting and I doubt we're done making trades. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up trading down once or even more and collecting 2nd-4th round picks for this and next years draft.

I think they've already said fuck it to 2021....hence the long term deal for Campbell.

 

[mhughes0021]

Cant really give Holmes credit for this strategy....hes going to be forced into it because he doesnt have any money to sign FAs...including his own.

He will have to be very selective.

Okwara is a must unless we find a replacement somewhere...you cant roll into 2021 with Bryant as your Edge rusher.

Golladay tag n trade for a 3rd....he wont get a 2nd.

Id love if we could fit Griffen into the plan.

Get rid of everyone else.

 

[detroit1811]

Cant really give Holmes credit for this strategy....hes going to be forced into it because he doesnt have any money to sign FAs...including his own.

He will have to be very selective.

Okwara is a must unless we find a replacement somewhere...you cant roll into 2021 with Bryant as your Edge rusher.

Golladay tag n trade for a 3rd....he wont get a 2nd.

Id love if we could fit Griffen into the plan.

Get rid of everyone else.

If I'm not mistaken a 3rd this year is worth a 2nd next year if your eyes, correct?

 

[Mitchrapp]

If I'm not mistaken a 3rd this year is worth a 2nd next year if your eyes, correct?

Other way around.

 

[mhughes0021]

If I'm not mistaken a 3rd this year is worth a 2nd next year if your eyes, correct?

Technically yes. Not sure how much a 1 year tag n trade rental gets traded for future picks....but its possible. I sitll doubt you get many 2nd rd takers.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Everson Griffen is also a guy to watch. He played well for us and I?m sure a contender would love him as a 3rd pass rusher for 5-6mil a year. Obviously you can only get 4 picks, but the more players that sign contracts, the more players you can sign without it counting against you if the value is similar. For example, we already have four guys that would probably get us comp picks in 2022, and Griffen signs a 2 year 12mil deal. If we go sign a WR to a 3 year 18mil deal the contracts would offset and not count as a negative in the comp pick process.

I heard Griffen was tweeting he wants to play for the Vikings again. Not saying he wouldn't sign here again, but with Flowers coming back I don't see that happening.

Who knows.

 

[detroit1811]

I heard Griffen was tweeting he wants to play for the Vikings again. Not saying he wouldn't sign here again, but with Flowers coming back I don't see that happening.

Who knows.

Yea I don't see Campbell/Holmes signing anyone over 30 unless they are getting like 2mil per or less. I don't see Griffen coming that cheap.

 

[mhughes0021]

I heard Griffen was tweeting he wants to play for the Vikings again. Not saying he wouldn't sign here again, but with Flowers coming back I don't see that happening.

Who knows.

He tweeted the same day how much cousins sucks. Confirming what we already knew... that he's a nut case.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Yea I don't see Campbell/Holmes signing anyone over 30 unless they are getting like 2mil per or less. I don't see Griffen coming that cheap.

Agreed. If healthy, Julian Okwara might get a lot of PT. I'd like to see him get a chance in one on one pass rushing situations.....he was good at ND.

If J. Okwara and Okudah but take big steps forward next year.....it will be like getting another 1st and 3rd round pick.

 

[LKP]

J Okwara has a shot but he should be 3rd/4th DE/pass rushing OLB. He was drafted to be a JACK too so if we run more true 4-3 then it may not be a fit as much of it. But maybe if he bulks up. Could fit 3-4 OLB more but one that doesn't cover much. Got to stay healthy first and foremost. We should all like his potential at least.

Austin Bryant less potential and more injuries. Hopefully 5th pass rusher at best on the team. Would love the new Dline coach and new scheme to fix him but I doubt this new regime will rely heavily on many of the old defensive pieces. But anybody has a shot. Rome Okwara finally blossomed into a good player from average to solid previosly in like year 5. Takes time sometimes for some guys. Bryant injuries have him behind the curve.

Hand is in a contract year. Solid player with a good rookie year (15th out 100) but another one that needs to stay healthy. How does every young DE we have get hurt. It's amazingly bad luck. Hell even Flowers got hurt.

 

[mhughes0021]

If Julian Okwara is our only hope for a pass rush this team is more fucked thatn i thought and Holmes blows.